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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 21
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Aaron Fitt
12:31
Hey folks, Kendall will be along in a bit. Let's dive in.
Mike
12:34
Do the Beavers get more leeway in the RPI than other West Coast teams due to Independant status and a much more difficult time scheduling games (in relation to At-Large Bid/ National Seed/Top 8)?
Aaron Fitt
12:34
Hey Mike -- West Coast teams generally get more RPI leeway than the rest of the country anyway, but I do think Oregon State is a particularly special case -- the challenges they faced assembling a schedule are unlike what anyone else faced. Of course, one product of that is they were forced to play a lot of road games, which has helped their RPI -- but for that to work, they had to win a high percentage of those road games, which is an inherent challenge. Anyway, they might not NEED extra RPI leeway, because they're in very good shape -- but I do think they have a chance for a top eight seed if they finish in the mid-teens, say. Will be interesting to see how the committee handles it.
Shirtless Bandits
12:36
how does WVU have to finish to host?
Aaron Fitt
12:36
The Mountaineers have put themselves in great shape, because they just refuse to lose. Suddenly their case looks stronger than it did just one week ago, with an RPI at No. 14, and of course those gaudy records (34-4 overall, 13-3 vs. Big 12). I still think the poor nonconference SOS could hurt them if they stumble, but if they win the Big 12 they'll definitely host, and at this point I'd feel pretty good about their hosting chances if they just win two of their last four series.
Lee
12:41
Are we sleeping a little on @vandyboys? SOS is 2. RPI is 3. Pitching stuffed Ga, struck out 40 batters in 3 games, among top in country in ERA and hits allowed. Timely hitting, great defense, not a top 8 host?
Aaron Fitt
12:41
Well, things change quickly -- last week Vandy's case looked a lot different than it does today, after that sweep of Georgia. That's very loud, and certainly when we meet tonight to assemble our updated field of 64, Vandy will be right there in the thick of the top 8 talk. If the season ended today, that's definitely a top 8 resumé. And I've been saying for a while that I thought people have been sleeping on Vandy; I think I've been the high man on the Dores for a while on our staff, because I think that pitching and defense formula CAN still carry teams a long way. Contrary to a lot of the chatter around Vandy's program, I don't actually think you have to hit home runs by the truckload to be an elite college baseball program. I still think teams that have real pitching stand out more than ever, because it's harder to be good at run prevention than it used to be. Anyway, I think the VU offense is good enough for this to be an Omaha team behind that pitching and defense formula.
Kenneth Howe
12:43
With a series win against Tennessee this weekend, is it safe to project Kentucky as a tournament team up to this point?
Aaron Fitt
12:43
Yeah for sure, I am convinced on Kentucky now -- that's a regional team, and I think they're going to be a tough out in regionals, because they're so well coached and they execute their identity very well. And I think Cleaver and McCay will be a formidable one-two punch in the postseason, too. This team has a lot of belief and a lot of toughness, and I just like the way the pieces fit together on that roster.
Guest
12:47
If you were solo intrested in growing NCAA baseball, what teams who are in the hosting picture would you most be rooting for to finish the season strong?
Aaron Fitt
12:47
Interesting question here. Joe Healy talked on our podcast today about the energy surrounding the Kansas program when he was in Lawrence this program -- people there are maybe more excited about Kansas baseball than they ever have been, so I think it would be neat to see them find a way to host. Cal Poly has such a neat atmosphere and the Central Coast folks will certainly show up for a regional, I think that would be a good one. West Virginia has a lot of program momentum and a great atmosphere, would be cool to see them host again to build on that momentum. Those are the ones that jump out to me off the top of my head.
Lovesbaseball
12:50
Does all the SEC insanity among the teams...Aggies zippo, then suddenly on fire, Florida flaming out, but trying to get back in it, LSU in a gumbo of weird weekends, Arkansas, etc. etc....does this make for a more exciting season down the stretch or ....is Texas really possibly gonna win the whole damn thing? Please, please not the latter.
Aaron Fitt
12:50
I think it makes for a very exciting gumbo, to borrow your word. I think this thing is wide open -- and that's no disrespect to Texas, which has had the best season through 10 weeks and is 100 percent deserving of being ranked No. 1. Certainly Texas could win the whole thing, but so could a bunch of other teams, and certainly Jared Spencer's injury status going forward is important. Horns keep on finding ways to win despite injuries, but man that would be another very big blow.
Guest
12:52
What are the chances NC state hosts a regional?
Aaron Fitt
12:52
I think it's coming together pretty well for the Wolfpack. Sitting at 12-6, they just have to go 6-6 over their final four weekends to finish with 18 ACC wins -- and that wouldn't guarantee them a host spot, but it sure would give them a solid chance. Vs. Clemson, at Miami, at UNC, vs Stanford -- if the Pack goes .500 against that slate, the RPI should take care of itself and I think they host.
Hardball Fan
12:56
WKU has an outstanding record, no doubt ... but look at the painfully low SOS. Why should WKU get an at-large with a 34 RPI and a 215 SOS, but Xavier be left out with a 23 RPI and a 5 SOS?

Why shouldn't Xavier be rewarded for playing a much tougher schedule?

Should mid-major teams schedule light to inflate W/L records now?
Aaron Fitt
12:56
Certainly I think it would be foolish for mid-major teams that hope to earn at-large bids to schedule light to inflate W/L records -- that formula usually does not translate into a viable RPI. It has this year for WKU largely because WKU has just won so much; if you've got a soft schedule, you can't afford to lose many games, and they haven't. Conversely, if you schedule aggressively like Xavier has, you can afford to lose a lot more games, as Xavier has, and still be in the mix. It's not enough just to play good teams and lose to all of them; you've gotta win enough. And I think Xavier's bounceback 4-0 week was important, after last week's thud. Managing to go 23-18 against a top-10 overall SOS is impressive, and right now Xavier would be back in the field of 64 projection, in my view.
Daniel
12:59
Could all 4 west coast BIG 10 teams make regionals or would Washington have to win the conference tournament?
Aaron Fitt
12:59
With an RPI in the 90s and an overall record just one game above .500, I don't see a realistic shot for Washington to get an at-large bid. But regardless, the Huskies have been one of the bigger surprise teams of the season for me -- I don't think anyone on our staff envisioned them being among the top 5 teams in the Big Ten at this stage of the season. Awfully loud debut for those West teams in the Big Ten this year. And kind of an indictment of the traditional Big Ten ...
Kevin R
1:00
Is Chris Stanfield the best 9-hole hitter in the country? His impact on LSU has been very underrated IMO.
Aaron Fitt
1:00
I really like Stanfield hiding down there at the bottom -- you're right, he can bite you, as he did this weekend. Feels like he's doing a pretty good job playing his own game and not trying to do too much.
Eric Simmons
1:01
Can UC Irvine host a Regional?
Kendall Rogers
1:01
UCI is definitely in the mix. RPI of 20 and a very very good league record. If the Anteaters win that series at Cal Poly, it will be pretty tough to deny them a host site as long as they don't stumble badly down the stretch. That would be a very solid and consistent resume with strong marks from an RPI standpoint.
Eric Simmons
1:03
Can Oregon host a Regional if they go 3-1 against Oregon State and win the rest of their series?
Kendall Rogers
1:03
Oregon would need to get in that Top 25-27 range and also win the Big Ten to probably host at this point, but never say never.
Marc S.
1:05
With the addition of the PAC-12 teams, do you think we could see a situation where the “real” Big Ten teams get shut out of hosting a regional going forward? Could open up a void in that part of the country.
Kendall Rogers
1:05
That's a great question. Is this a one-year outlier or will this be the norm moving forward? I'm not trying to bag on Washington here, I promise, but the fact the Huskies are right there near the top of the standings is not a particularly great look in a year when UW was supposed to be rebuilding. Perhaps Eddie Smith is just doing that awesome of a job. But yes, all of those West teams dominating the league sans Iowa is not a great look. Will it be the norm? Too early to tell -- but great observation.
Bob
1:07
Greetings guys, appreciate the opportunity to ask questions every week.  So....CCU goes 7-1 the last 2 weeks (throwing away the Wake game because every arm used has thrown less than 10ip) and doesn’t move. Troy, ahead of them, goes 4-3 and doesn't drop.  Coastal has widened their lead over Troy (and USM) to 2 games. What gives?
Aaron Fitt
1:07
Hey Bob -- one of those awkward cases where it's tricky to square head to head results with standings. The head to head series win is why Troy stayed ahead of CCU, (and Troy has not lost any weekends all year -- so yes, Coastal swept the last two weekends to widen up that gap in the standings, but teams that win their weekends do tend to hold their ground in our rankings). At some point if these trends continue, we will make an adjustment, and we're probably close to that point if Troy goes 2-2 this week but Coastal goes 4-0, let's say.
Tim T
1:09
Based on historical, analytical metrics which teams do you think meet the threshold for success to get to Omaha? May be too in depth for chat but just curious who you think should start booking hotel reservations.
Aaron Fitt
1:09
Personally, I'm still looking at teams that are among the national leaders in ERA while playing in a power conference -- to me, that's the biggest separator. Lots of teams can score runs, but not that many can excel at run prevention while facing elite bats. Some teams in the top 20 in ERA right now: Texas, Tennessee, UNC, LSU, Vandy, WVU, Arkansas, TCU. Just my gut here, but I think that is a much better predictor of postseason success than RPI or some other metric.
Smitty
1:10
Where would you stack up Oregon State considering they don’t play in a conference and will that hurt them when it comes to seeding?
Kendall Rogers
1:10
Smitty -- don't think it's going to hurt Oregon State at all on Selection Monday. I think anyone with a pulse would notice that OSU had a very very good intent to schedule, and the Beavers have taken care of business against several strong opponents on their schedule. They still have series remaining against Oregon and Iowa, both teams who are doing great in the Big Ten. Additionally, Hawaii on the road will be an RPI winner. I like where OSU is right now.
Rob Ralley
1:11
Are the Miami hurricanes in the ncaa tournament as of today?
Aaron Fitt
1:11
Wasn't expecting that I'd be typing "yes" to this question at the 10 week mark, but "yes." At 9-9 in the ACC with a No. 36 RPI, Miami has clearly moved to the right side of the bubble; as of today, I think they're in easily. What an enormous sweep of Georgia Tech -- just a huge difference maker for their postseason hopes. Huge.
Poll Mechanics
1:13
Typically a complete jumble this time of year, there's actually a line of demarcation in the Big 12 with six teams at 10-8 or better + Top 50 RPIs and everyone else 8-10 or worse with RPIs of 60 or worse. Who is most likely to fall out of the top six and who is most likely to join it?
Kendall Rogers
1:13
Poll -- I would probably lean Kansas State as the most likely to drop out of the top six. Just feels like things are slipping a bit for the Wildcats, who are suddenly forming into a bubble team. Still like the talent there, however. In terms of teams to enter, I still think Oklahoma State has the talent to make a run down the stretch, but time is running out. Pokes are 68 in the RPI with a 6-9 league record. It better buck up very soon.
Poll Mechanics
1:14
Iowa (RPI 57) has not played a series against a team with a record above .500 in the Big Ten. That changes in their last three league series (Hoosiers, Huskies, Ducks), not to mention Oregon State. Is the B1G only getting west coast schools in this year?
Aaron Fitt
1:14
We'll soon find out just how good Iowa is, but that road sweep of Michigan caught my attention. It is wild that the Hawkeyes have feasted upon teams that are largely nowhere near postseason contention, but I think that pitching staff might just be legit. And I like the way Iowa's postseason resumé is trending. I think they wind up being a regional team, joining the West Coast wing.
Daniel
1:16
Do all 4 west coast BIG 10 teams get in the tournament or does Washington have to win the conference tournament for that to happen?
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