JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 3

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 3

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SJA

1:03

Is BC a Omaha contender? Also, how great would a Boston regional be?

Kendall Rogers

1:03

SJA -- At this point, I think you have to start believing in Boston College. Sure, there are some aspects of the team where you're thinking man how are they doing this ... but the fact of the matter is that BC has been very consistent, and there's just enough upper level talent to be pretty scary. It's hard to deny BC until it provers otherwise. Like John Sfecz last season, Mike Gambino and his staff are doing a remarkable job this season. One of the best coaching jobs I've seen in the last four or five years, so far.

Guest

1:06

Do you think NC state can get into the hosting conversation?

Kendall Rogers

1:06

Guest -- NC State is one of those teams that probably controls its own destiny the rest of the way. The Wolfpack already has an elite RPI in the Top 10 -- but the ACC record is lacking. With that said, they're suddenly playing really well and I've got my eye on them the second half of the season.

Zeke

1:07

My Kentucky Wildcats are off to a great start and have looked really good so far this year. Do they have the staying power to compete with Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Florida at the top of the East?

Aaron Fitt

1:07

Hi Zeke -- Kentucky is in the same boat as BC for me; we keep waiting to see if they have staying power, and they both just keep on winning. At this point, they're both top 10 in the RPI and have yet to lose a weekend, and now we're halfway through the regular season. Ultimately, I don't think Kentucky is in the same elite category as Vandy, South Carolina and Florida when the dust settles, but the Wildcats have definitely earned our respect and forced us to revise our estimation of their chances. Certainly they are in the regional hosting mix, and they might just stick around in that conversation all year.

Travis

1:07

Oregon! Thoughts on their outlook the rest of the way?

Kendall Rogers

1:07

Travis -- offense, offense, offense. Coach Waz has those guys knocking the cover off the ball after a little bit a slower than expected start a few weeks ago. Oregon will hit. The question will be moving forward if it can pitch at an elite enough level to make a run to Omaha. The upside is most definitely there. They're sizzling hot.

Heel

1:09

Outlook on UNC and their hosting chances? After this week, back to back big ACC home weekends against BC and Miami that could reveal a lot more about this team.

Aaron Fitt

1:09

Kinda feels like UNC is just hanging around -- they've done enough to stay ranked all season, and there's plenty of time for them to make a run at hosting, but as of today they are not in that range with a No. 37 RPI and a 3-6 mark against the top 50. But they're mostly winning their weekends, and you're right that they've got some big opportunities to make a move up the hosting ladder in the next few weeks. I think they're still right on track to be in that mix at the end.

Brock

1:11

I know the SEC is a beast pretty much every year, but can you remember a gauntlet like the one Tennessee is currently in? They're in the midst of this stretch: @ #1 LSU, #3 UF, @ #5 Arkansas, and #4 Vanderbilt. Going .500 would be a success in my book.

Aaron Fitt

1:11

Hooboy that is some stretch. You're right, it's pretty much impossible to envision a more daunting gauntlet than that. And I agree, going .500 in those four weeks would definitely be a success, and keep the Vols in good shape for a top eight seed.

Guest

1:14

Does the loss by UVa at VT change your outlook on the Cavaliers? Pitching really struggled over the final two games and finally showed their cracks. What is this teams ceiling?

Aaron Fitt

1:14

I've been saying it every week on the podcast or the chat -- credit Virginia's players and coaches for what they've done on the mound so far, it is incredible, way beyond my expectations..... but I have still never been sold on UVa as an elite pitching staff. I just don't think they've got the kind of power stuff in the rotation that some of the other top contenders have. That said, they have shown us they are a very good pitching staff with lots of pitchability, but really good offensive teams (as Va Tech is when it is hot) will still expose the Cavs on the mound, I believe. So yes, this weekend was perhaps a glimpse of that. I still like UVa as a top 10 team, however.

Brendan Bell

1:18

While we're only at the halfway point, it feels like there will be a collection of SEC and ACC teams with 12-15 league wins and strong RPIs. Could this hurt mid-majors who fail to win their conference tournaments?

Aaron Fitt

1:18

I think you're spot-on, Brendan. The SEC and ACC have such gaudy nonconference winning percentages that they are destined to be loaded with high-RPI teams with borderline records in conference play, which is going to really shrink the window for the mid-major bubble teams.

Brendan Bell

1:24

LSU has passed every test so far this season and have every right to be the #1 team at this point. However, the last two years have taught us that being #1 all season doesn't mean anything in June. Are LSU's Sunday pitching struggles the chink in the armor that could cost them in a Super? Or is there enough depth to fix it enough to let the offense do what it will do?

Aaron Fitt

1:24

I'll correct you there: the last 25 years have taught us that being No. 1 all season doesn't mean anything in June. There has still been just one team in the 64-team era to earn the No. 1 national seed and then in it all, and that was Miami in 1999 -- the first year of this tournament format. We've seen some ridiculous juggernaut teams on par with this LSU team have dominant regular seasons, and none of them have taken home the big prize. All you can do is put yourself in position over the course of the season to play at home in the postseason, then it's just about being hot and playing your best at the right time. But to answer your other question -- I still believe LSU has the depth on the mound to find the right combinations and address that particular question mark. They are truly loaded with standout arm talent; it's just a matter of putting all the pieces together and getting a few more of those guys to find their footing. Better days are ahead for Thatcher Hurd, I believe Wes J will get him going.

Ricky B

1:27

So UTSA? How many more games do the birds from Texas need to win to be ranked? Also, with an RPI in the top 40.

Kendall Rogers

1:27

Ricky -- UTSA will get in the mix as it continues to win. There was only one spot for a new team this week, and we thought Oregon was the most deserving club. With that said, I continue to be ultra-impressed with what Patrick Hallmark's club is doing. They have just enough on the mound with Malone, Miller and Co., and the offense/defense is pretty steady Eddie. Good lookin' club.

Pigs

1:27

So, Arkansas got basically nothing from their starting pitching this weekend, but ended up winning the series anyway. Van horn has pressed some guys into heavy usage out of the bullpen that likely wouldn't have been if not for the rash of injuries and they have stepped up big time, especially Dylan Carter. When we get Tygart back in a week or two, do you see this team back in the mix to win it all?

Aaron Fitt

1:27

Yeah I do -- Hogs definitely feel like one of the top 6-8 national title contenders to me, and a big part of that is the toughness they've shown by continuing to win despite their mound losses. Dylan Carter is a great example of a guy Matt Hobbs has done a wonderful job developing; didn't pitch at all last year as a juco transfer, gained some confidence in the Northwoods, then I saw him look really good in the fall, 92-95 with a hammer and good slider and changeup. Not surprised he's become a go-to piece; he's got real stuff, and they've brought him along masterfully.

Pirate

1:28

Is it time to hit the panic button for East Carolina? Outside of the 2 wins against UNC, there aren't many marquee wins on the resume and with the AAC down this year, and Liberty and Missouri State playing below expectations...the toughest part of the schedule is midweek games and ECU has barely remembered to get off the bus in the midweek action.

Kendall Rogers

1:28

Pirate -- Definitely not the panic button, but did I think ECU looked like an elite team in my look? Not really. The offense just didn't have a lot of juice outside of two or three guys. With that said, we knew that ECU would be a pitching-dominant club coming into the season, and that's an area where I really liked it on Friday. Trey Yesavage was awesome, and I actually liked the staff I saw from Shenkman and Ritchie. Ritchie's breaking ball is particularly filthy. But yes, offensively, I think ECU still has something to prove.

Will C.

1:29

What is an 'under the radar' storyline that most college baseball fans are not following, but should be?

Aaron Fitt

1:29

Here's one for you: the CAA is very interesting this year. Elon and Northeastern have both had great first halves and are in strong shape in the RPI, and then UNCW and CofC and William & Mary have also put together very good first halves. Feels like five teams that will all battle it out down the stretch, and the way Elon and Northeastern have set themselves up, you could envision the CAA being a potential two-bid league. I'm planning to get a look at Elon and UNCW this weekend, kind of a neat under-the-radar series.

Jim

1:32

Is there a scenario with two northeast regionals and both BC and UConn hosting?

Aaron Fitt

1:32

Incredibly enough, that scenario is certainly in play right now. Obviously if the season ended today BC would be a slam-dunk top-eight seed, and UConn and Northeastern would both be in the hosting discussion with top-20 RPIs (though in Northeastern's case they'd have to find a site to host). I do believe UConn and BC both likely have staying power in the hosting race, though the Huskies are likely to drop some in the RPI by the time Memorial Day rolls around. But that is a good club, and if they really dominate that league as they very well might, I could see them making a run at hosting with an RPI in the 18-25 range. And I don't think the committee would balk at having two regionals in the Northeast if there are two deserving teams; that would be a neat story.

Erik M

1:33

Is the gradual increase in home runs a different - "juiced" ball or is it just the launch angle revolution making it's way down the baseball ladder?

Kendall Rogers

1:33

Erik -- I have zero doubt the ball is a little hot this season. I also think the weather, to an extent, has mattered. It seems to me like it's better a little warmer than usual, and as a result, balls are flying a bit more. But at the end of the day, I think it's more so the ball than anything else. I was watching the end of the Ole Miss-A&M game yesterday and Ryan Targac hit a walk-off HR on a ball that looked like a routine pop up to center. Instead, it just kept going and going.

Nick Hammons

1:34

How there been any traction on that amendment where coaches want the season to start in Mid March instead of Mid February? These games with snow and frigid temperatures are just brutal.

Kendall Rogers

1:34

No movement, and frankly, I think that whole plan likely died with Erik Bakich moving on to Clemson. I haven't heard a peep about it since his move, and let's be honest, COVID kind of threw a wrench into the plans on that deal, too. I still very much favor an early-to-mid March start date, but getting SEC schools to move the end of the season into July is a tough proposition.

JDM

1:35

When can we expect the first 'Field of 64' release?

Aaron Fitt

1:35

This week! We're working on our full midseason update package, and the field of 64 will be part of that.

Jack

1:37

Texas Tech was able to pull out the series this weekend against TCU, but pitching struggled at times and overall, the last two weeks, they’ve looked shaky at best. How do you feel about Tech going forward the rest of the way?

Aaron Fitt

1:37

Feels like an adequate pitching staff but not a dominant one. I like the depth of lefties and their ability to mix and match, and I like Mason Molina, but I do believe this staff has fewer true horses to lean on than some of Tech's best teams. But they are built to win their share of high-scoring ballgames, and I think they'll remain right in the mix at the top of the Big 12 all year.

Tim Taylor

1:37

What the heck happened to Arizona?

Kendall Rogers

1:37

Tim -- Arizona ranks in the 130s nationally in team ERA and has two starting pitchers with an ERA over seven, and another with an ERA north of four. I think the issue can pretty much pinpointed to those two things.

Terpitude

1:38

The Terps are on a good roll, but their RPI is 55. What is the maximum a B1G team's RPI can be to snag an NCAA bid? (I realize after last year's Rutgers snub that nothing is guaranteed.)

Kendall Rogers

1:38

Terp -- the one difference between Rutgers (last year) and Maryland (now) is that Maryland actually went out and played a challenging non-conference schedule. That is probably 99% of the reason RU did not make the field last year. With that said, as long as the Terps are playing the way they did this past weekend against Iowa, I think everything will take care of itself anyway.

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