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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 4
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Aaron Fitt
12:28
Yeah you're right, what a jumbled mess in the middle. Virginia feels like the clear class of the league right now, but you're right that their pitching has been a bit vulnerable now that they're facing some more explosive offenses, so we'll see how that holds up. Clearly that offense and defense are superb, and those strengths should buoy them all season. I really like how Miami's pitching has come together -- Karson Ligon has been a revelation in the rotation, and Jake Garland has been rock-solid, and Palmquist has done a great job transitioning from the bullpen, and Walters might be the best closer in the country. I don't think Miami has an elite offense, but it might be good enough to make a run at a top 8 seed behind that pitching staff. Notre Dame showed us this weekend that it is not going anywhere, they still belong in the top tier for me. And I think FSU will get hot & be a major factor in the race in the second half, just too much talent on the mound, even though the position player group is just OK.
MG
12:30
UNLV at19-9, 11-1 in the MWC and 4-1 vs top50 in RPI (2-0 vs top25) Do you see the bright light city boys setting souls on fire the rest of the way?
Kendall Rogers
12:30
MG -- As long as the Rebels are hitting like they are right now, they'll have a chance to win every series in that conference. Joey Walls is having a massive season and UNLV ranks near the top in the country in team BA at .333. Looking at the rest of the schedule, I'm liking UNLV's chances of finishing strong. The only issue is that it will likely need to win the conference tournament because the RPI is sitting at 91 and there aren't a lot of opportunities to improve on that.
Jon
12:31
What’s going on with UF? That club is always Uber talented but seem to under perform an awful a lot
Aaron Fitt
12:31
We've been writing since the fall that this Florida team is going to have some ups and downs in the first half while its young pitching staff matures, and that has been the case -- no surprise there. But we always figured this club would be much more dangerous late than early, and I still think that will be the case too. That's the most talented group of freshman arms in the country, but they need to get healthier and have some of those young arms establish themselves if they're gonna make a run in June. But as far as under-achieving a lot -- I mean, they went to Omaha 7 times in 9 years last decade, so I really don't think that's an accurate characterization.
PackFan
12:34
Can we talk NC State’s path to hosting now that have won b2b ACC series and above .500 in league? RPI is now climbing (43) but still a ways to go after doing nothing good in pre-conference. With 2 sweepable series (BC, Duke) and 4 real 50/50 series (@ VT, @ Louisville, Wake, UNC) I see a likely path to 17-12 conference record. Would that be enough with the OOC metrics or do you guys think 18-19 wins be needed?
Aaron Fitt
12:34
You've sketched it out pretty well -- I also see a path to 17 ACC wins, and I might take the over on that if I were placing a bet today. I think NC State is just starting to scratch the surface of its potential. I think 18 ACC wins would do it for hosting, but 17 would give them a shot, particularly with some wins in the conference tourney.
SECbaseball
12:35
Who the hell is the 3rd best team in the SEC? 4th is just as much of a mystery if not more.
Kendall Rogers
12:35
When everything is clicking, it's clearly Ole Miss for me. I was impressed with the job Dylan DeLucia did in the weekend rotation at UK over the weekend. UK can really hit and he mastered that lineup. Hell, Ole Miss' pitching, which has been the big question mark, performed at a high level for much of the weekend. Perhaps it was the weekend that gets this staff going once and for all? If so, watch out.
Aaron Fitt
12:37
I'll chime in here too; I think I might like Vanderbilt as the third team, because I think they've got more firepower on the mound than Ole Miss. Really like both teams' position player groups, but I'd give the Dores the edge on the mound. Georgia is right in that discussion too for me; still not in love with the pitching after Cannon, but that veteran position player group is doing a great job, and at least they have a true ace in Cannon, one of the best in the country.
TOAST
12:35
I am back guys....Would a sweep of LSU this weekend be enough for Mississippi State to come back into the top 25? Or would state just need to win both their next home series against LSU and Auburn to get back in the top 25?
Aaron Fitt
12:35
TOAST! Welcome back. I think State probably needs two more series wins to get back into the Top 25 discussion; that resumé is not very good right now, with four series losses in seven weekends. Still a ways to go. Winning series against both LSU and Auburn would probably get them right back in the mix though.
Grant
12:38
How would you rank the top 3 in the big 12 at this moment?
Kendall Rogers
12:38
My personal ranking? 1) Texas Tech 2) Texas 3) Oklahoma State. I still have more overall belief in Texas than Oklahoma State, and just the way that game ended yesterday makes me wonder if the Longhorns are back to being totally dialed in again. Time will tell, specifically this weekend's series against TCU.
Aaron Fitt
12:40
I'll chime in here with a dissenting opinion again; long term, I like Oklahoma State the best, because I just think they've got the most pieces on the mound. But right now it's hard to argue with Texas Tech being at the top of the pile at the midway point.
cool 1
Kevin R
12:39
Do you think LSU has any chance of reaching Omaha with a .956 fielding %? Can you think of any team in the past that has reached Omaha with a defense this poor?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
Boy, that is an ugly number. No, I cannot think of another team that has fielded that poorly and made it to Omaha. They could still ride their bats to Omaha and just bash everybody 10-8, so I certainly would not count them out, because that offense is scary. But let's hope they can show some improvement defensively between now and June.
crying 1
Captain Crunch
12:39
Can Gonzaga host a Regional?
Kendall Rogers
12:39
If Gonzaga finishes with an RPI in the 10-20 range, I think it hosts. The high-end wins for the Zags right now are ultra impressive.
Guest
12:44
As a Beaver fan, I'm not sure I agree with dropping the Beavers ONLY two spots after losing the series against an unranked Stanford. Sure they won their mid-week series against a .500 Nevada team but that's nothing to be proud of. Beavers struggled against both Nevada and Stanford so why so generous to the Beavs?
Aaron Fitt
12:44
I mentioned OSU's small drop earlier, but the two midweek wins on the road at Nevada were another mitigating factor. Nevada isn't a world beater but those are still two decent wins on the road. Posting a 3-2 week helps limit the damage from a home series loss. And again, this was OSU's first series loss; they've been very consistent.
Guest
12:46
Ole Miss fan. Tennessee, at the point, looks better than any college baseball team I can remember and I am 61. Never seen anything like this. Your thoughts?
Kendall Rogers
12:46
Guest -- Oregon State back in 2017 went 56-6. I don't think Tennessee can beat that. That Beavers team wins the national title without much of a problem, IMO, if they have the best pitcher in college baseball (Heimlich) in Omaha. That team, like Tennessee, was insanely loaded personnel wise.
TedD
12:47
It sure seems like this season to date has been remarkably volatile and unpredictable. Is that your sense?  If so, is it just a "that's baseball" thing, or does it reflect college baseball's deep talent pool amplified by a few factors (two years of compressed MLB draft, COVID extensions, frictionless transfers)?
Aaron Fitt
12:47
I think you hit on some key things there, Ted. I definitely think there is more parity than ever thanks to the smaller draft, the abundance of older players with extra eligibility, and the open transfer market -- which has helped mid-majors retool as well as power five teams. But that said, there are still the typical blue bloods at the top of the heap, with Texas State being the only non-SEC/Pac/ACC/Big 12 team currently ranked in our top 15. The two teams at the top that have maybe achieved most above our preseason expectations are Tennessee and Virginia, and a large part of that for both teams is just that their freshmen have really, really hit the ground running -- and that stuff can be tough to predict, because there's usually more of a learning curve for freshmen. Not so for those two clubs.
Skers fan
12:49
Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, and who else from the BIG ten can compete for a regional? Looks like to me non conference did some damage to all the other teams ( besides Purdue)
Kendall Rogers
12:49
I will say the Big Ten is a three bid league. Feel very very confident in Maryland making the field. The other two teams? Very much TBD at this point. Wide open race. I like Michigan's club, but Iowa might actually be higher in the pecking order at the moment.
Noah
12:51
What are your thoughts on Wake Forest? I would think the Deacs are pretty close to being ranked at this point.
Aaron Fitt
12:51
Yeah, Wake remains right there in the 26-30 range; couple of series losses to good FSU and UVa teams, but no shame in that, and they didn't get swept in either. The road sweep at Ga Tech was the highlight of the resumé; the nonconference slate was soft so they need another good week or two to break into the top 25. But if they can win that Duke series this weekend, I have a feeling the Deacs could well get into the rankings. That's a good club; I was in Boston on Friday and saw Rhett Lowder, and I was really impressed. He's got legit stuff, and great competitiveness, that's a real ace. And Brock Wilken hit a couple of bombs, which was good to see -- he's been up and down this year. A big key for them going forward.
Brent
12:53
Nice to see Southern Miss ranked. Tanner Hall and Hurston Waldrep have almost been un hittable this year….What are your thoughts on this team and how far could you see them going? Could you imagine if Och and Trimble stayed for this year! Nice to dream. Thanks for all
Aaron Fitt
12:53
Yeah, that Southern Miss pitching staff is really good. With Hunter Riggins too, they've got three legit starters and plenty of depth behind them, with a wide variety of looks and strikeout stuff. But man you're right, Waldrep and Hall have been special, as their K-BB numbers attest. I like the position player group quite a bit too, tons of experience and firepower. Really good balanced club that I truly believe is capable of making an Omaha run.
sta5150
12:55
how is arizona doing under hale
Kendall Rogers
12:55
STA -- I've been pretty pleased with how Arizona is doing with the new skipper. I wrote this back during the Globe Life tourney, but Chip just gets it. He knows exactly who he is and he knows exactly what that program needs. Arizona can hit with anyone, and I actually continue to like some of its key pieces on the mound. If I was a betting man, I'd have Arizona in Omaha right now.
Fe_Mike
12:56
Do you guys see Tulane as 'comfortably in'  the tournament right now?  RPI of 66 has them right on that bubble. They've looked impressive outside of that inexplicable series against Evansville.  They're not racking up stats and popping eyes in any facet of the game, but they don't have any glaring holes either.  Just a good, rounded team that wins games in a West Coast style.
Aaron Fitt
12:56
Definitely not comfortably in, that RPI would be below the bubble if the season ended today, and that Evansville series really hurts them. But they play hard for Coach Jewett, and that young pitching staff has shown some very encouraging flashes. I think there's still plenty of upside they haven't tapped into yet because some of the more accomplished hitters in that lineup still haven't really gotten going (Lee, Engelhard, Minder, LaPrairie are all capable of hitting a lot more than they have so far).
Big 12
12:56
How many postseason bids is the Big 12 trending toward at the moment?
Kendall Rogers
12:56
Big 12 -- The Big 12 has seven teams within striking distance RPI wise, but no shot the league gets that many teams in. I say six as of right now. Keep an eye on WVU -- it is trending upward not only in terms of its level of play and conference standing, but also in the RPI.
Coop250
12:57
Three 1 run losses for the Ducks this weekend. They seemed to hit the ball hard but that ballpark and UCLA's pitching held them short. Concerned about the Ducks or does this past weekend speak more about the quality of UCLA? Any word on when Maier may return to help that Ducks pitching staff?
Aaron Fitt
12:57
No concern for me; I think Oregon is a legit contender. Just lost three tight one-run games on the road, it happens. If anything, I was encouraged by how the Ducks pitched this weekend, and I think the offense will bounce back, because I think that offense is real. Good question on Maier, we will look into that. He's so talented, they could really use him. One of the best arms I saw in the Cape League last year.
Guest
12:57
If there was a team who could beat Tennessee in a best two out of three series, who is it?
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