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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 8
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Robert
2:35
At mid-season point, who are you more confident in getting it done in Omaha. Wake last year or Ark this year?
Kendall Rogers
2:35
I would say Wake Forest last year. Wake didn't have Nick Kurtz, one of the top players in college baseball, in the decisive games against LSU and still almost beat the Tigers and advanced to the championship series. With that said, I do think the Arkansas offense is better than the numbers suggest. Nolan Souza's weekend was mighty impressive, and the pitching staff is absolutely elite. But looking back at last year, it took herculean efforts to beat Wake.
Aaron Fitt
2:35
Hello, friends! Hope you all enjoyed the weekend and the four minutes of heaven that was the eclipse. Let's dive in!
Heel
2:37
How would you rank the ACC in terms of best chances of getting to Omaha this season?
Aaron Fitt
2:37
Obviously at this point you have to regard Clemson as the favorite in the ACC based on what the Tigers have done over the last calendar year, but I would put Duke right in that top tier with them because I still like Duke's pitching best of any team in the ACC. UNC and Wake and UVa FSU would probably all be in that same tier for me, when it's all said and done -- I don't truly think there's much separation between any of those six. All feel like viable Omaha contenders.
Chuck
2:37
Chances texas tech makes the postseason? Very inconsistent team and very un-tadlock
Kendall Rogers
2:37
The Red Raiders would be in as of today with an RPI of 37 and a decent Big 12 record. I still have my reserves about how good this team is -- it seems like everyone is beating up on Houston these days -- but there's certainly plenty of potential. I like Tech's positioning right now a lot more than someone like Kansas, or Texas.
WestCoastRoast
2:40
Oregon has a pretty solid resume at this point. Even though the Pac-12 is down this year, they've won every conference series and played well in non-con. Seems like a team that doesn't do any one thing particularly great but is well rounded and pretty decent in most areas. What are your thoughts on the qualities of this club?
Aaron Fitt
2:40
Yeah we all like the Ducks, we talked about that on our Top 25 call last night -- a club we liked heading into the season, and we expected them to break into the Top 25 at some point. Now they've started stringing together quality series wins (even though they aren't sweeping any weekends). Not the sexiest roster, but I think it's solid all the way around, I think you nailed it. The bullpen feels like a strength, the starting pitching is mostly reliable, they've got some power and some athleticism and they take care of the baseball. Good club, capable of winning a regional again, I think.
Pokes Fans
2:42
What is the ceiling for this Oklahoma State team? Is a top 8 seed way too optimistic? Omaha?
Aaron Fitt
2:42
Top 8 feels aggressive, but heck if they continue to pitch like they have in the first half, it could happen -- they're definitely surging. And there's just so little good pitching to go around in college baseball that OSU's mound work really stands out. I mentioned on our weekend preview pod last week that Zach Ehrhard getting hot feels like a potential game changer (in addition to Schubart being healthy again, of course) -- I think Ehrhard is a really talented guy who is playing at a high level right now. At the moment, I think I like Oklahoma State's chances to make a deep postseason run better than any other Big 12 team's chances, and I think Kendall agrees with me.
Dudy Noble
2:42
Do you think that a 3 seed in a regional should be enough to save Chris Lemonis job?
Kendall Rogers
2:42
Dudy -- I think Mississippi State making the postseason would and should save Lemonis' job. Obviously Chris knows they needed to win coming into the season and this team is clearly much better than they were last season. They're playing at a pretty solid level. I would go another year as long as the Bulldogs make the tourney....
Andrew
2:43
Alright guys, yall ranked us but now it’s time to get greedy. What does Louisiana have to do to host? Is a regular season AND tournament title necessary? Those RPI hits from Rice and Ark State are killing me!
Kendall Rogers
2:43
Andrew -- That Rice series could really haunt this team as the season progresses if they keep playing at this level, because yeah, the Cajuns are STILL at 50 in the RPI despite a 15-game winning streak. It would take a dominant showing in the Sun Belt and potentially even more to get into hosting range.
Fan
2:44
How close is Arizona to the rankings? Are they a playoff the season ended today?
Aaron Fitt
2:44
They're getting closer, we did talk about them this week in our meeting. They've reeled off 7 straight wins, with good sweeps against UCLA and Cal, and just like that they're suddenly 17-13 (they were 11-13 just two weeks ago). Still probably a couple weeks away from the top 25, because they have lost like 4 of their 8 weekends this year -- but they're making a run. And I do like their postseason chances quite a bit -- another team that has very solid pitching, which stands out in this offense-crazy era.
Guest
2:45
Thoughts on the State-Georgia fiasco on Saturday?
Kendall Rogers
2:45
I'll keep this brief because I said plenty Saturday night during the entire ordeal. But this was clearly a case of the review room going way overboard. The only person I thought should've been kicked out was Johnny Long -- nobody else. I actually thought both teams did a great job of avoiding a fracas. The SEC needs to review what happened and make sure we're never waiting 34 minutes for that type of decision again. Inexcusable.
laughing 1
Reid
2:46
If anything, what is going to be the Achilles heel for razorback team in June? Best starting rotation in country. Great bullpen pieces. Now with Stovall back, and Aloy and Souza getting hot their offense is absolutely rolling. What could stop them in postseason?
Aaron Fitt
2:46
You know, early in the season I would have said maybe "defense", because I thought it felt kinda fringe-average at best. But you look up now and they're fielding .980, 16th-best in the nation, so they've even cleaned up that question mark. Just feels like they are far and away the best team in the country. The only thing that could stop them is that it's damn tough to win it all -- the best team almost never wins, the hottest team wins. And there's no way to dial up "being hot" on command -- if you could then everyone would do it. Baseball is a game of ebbs and flows, and you just need to hope you're playing your best baseball when it matters most.
J
2:47
So… Wake is back???
Aaron Fitt
2:47
Yes! I predicted this in our weekend preview pod, I said it felt like Wake was about to make a run, because Kurtz and Roland and Houston all being healthy again just makes them a totally different team. And this weekend it felt like they just flipped the switch. Watch out now, this team feels like it's going to be a handful in the second half.
Todd
2:49
With Kentucky already at 11 SEC wins and a top 5 RPI, how many SEC wins does UK need to be a Top 8 seed & Super host potentially?
Kendall Rogers
2:49
We talked about this on the Podcast, and with 11 wins already, the Wildcats would actually need to collapse to some degree to NOT be a top 16 at this point. With that said, that is not an easy finish to the season scheduling-wise -- Auburn, Tennessee, @ SC, Arkansas, @ Florida and Vanderbilt. If the Bat Cats are a top 8 or top 16, they will definitely have earned it with that remaining schedule. I've been ultra impressed by the Wildcats' overall balance and consistency during this later run.
Dawgs
2:51
In y’all’s opinion, what is Mississippi State’s ceiling rankings-wise for the remainder of the season
Aaron Fitt
2:51
I view Mississippi State as the favorite in four if its six remaining series, and it is currently 6-6 in the SEC, so I see a very realistic path to 16 or 17 SEC wins. That feels like a team that could remain in the teens or so, maybe even sneak into the top 10 of the rankings, and make a run at hosting (although certainly they are not starting from a very advantageous position in the RPI when it comes to hosting -- but I expect that RPI to continue to climb as they get deeper into SEC play).
Jacob
2:53
perennial national power, multiple national championships, has embraced the long ball, fans that travel well, and is technically south east .... of Alaska.  How much longer does Oregon state need to wait for their baseball only invite to the SEC?
Aaron Fitt
2:53
I like your style -- let's make it happen!
FullertonBaseballFan
2:53
With lots of bad RPI's in the Big West coming up on their schedules, what are the chances of Irvine hosting a regional if they end up something like 48-8 and what are the chances of UCSB getting an at-large bid in what has usually been a one bid conference lately?
Kendall Rogers
2:53
Fullerton -- Great question on UC Irvine. I think if the Anteaters went 48-8 and were in the Top 25-30 of the RPI, it would be very difficult to deny them a host site. The committee would have to be smart enough to look at the teams they finish with on their schedule and realize it's not their fault. I'd be an advocate for the Eaters hosting in that situation.
MB
2:54
Georgia Southern getting hot; how close are the Eagles to a postseason projection?
Aaron Fitt
2:54
Good call -- Georgia Southern will definitely be a team we discuss at length in the next Nerdcast. They are now 8-4 in the Sun Belt and have climbed inside the top 50 of the RPI. Definitely on the bubble right now, and trending in the right direction!
Lubbock
2:55
How big of weekend is it for both Tech and TCU? Who has the advantage currently?
Kendall Rogers
2:55
Currently? Texas Tech without a doubt at 7-5 in the league and with an RPI of 37. TCU is 5-10 with an RPI of 40. TCU's pathway of making the tournament if it drops to 6-12 in the Big 12 will be pretty difficult. Doable? Yes. But tough. I can't really figure out why TCU is so inconsistent. The offense should not be this bad -- the Frogs are hitting ***.221*** in league play. That's rough.
Guest
2:56
What does Fresno need to do in order to crack the top 25? Is the schedule too weak?
Aaron Fitt
2:56
Another team that is on our radar -- I love the fact that Fresno has won every weekend this year, and the fact that they are 12-3 in the league. But yeah, it's just hard when you're not getting a chance to win any series against teams that have even a remote prayer of getting at-large consideration -- makes it hard to evaluate those teams, and those teams usually have a hard time breaking into the Top 25. But that doesn't mean those teams can't make a run -- see Oral Roberts last year, that team had a pretty similar profile, I think, and they wound up in Omaha.
Caneaholic
2:59
With Florida getting swept this week are their top 16 hosting chances in trouble?
Kendall Rogers
2:59
Not at all. Obviously, the Gators need to play a lot better and win a lot of series down the stretch, but still 6-6 in the league with a 31 RPI. In the SEC, the Gators could make that ground up in a matter of a couple of weeks. Will that happen? Yeah, I'm not banking on it with how they are playing right now. We shall see.
Guest
2:59
At what point to we say TCU is a bust and we just move on from this year? Y'all keep saying you expect them to turn this around but we are getting pretty late in the year for them to turn it around aren't we
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