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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: April 8
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Aaron Fitt
2:59
Yeah I think it's time to jump ship -- I know I am. I was holding on tight last week, but I feel seasick after this weekend's sweep at Cincinnati -- now they're just 5-10 in the Big 12. It's just not the team we expected it to be. What a disappointing season. It's not too late -- we've seen teams dig out of similar holes and make very deep runs in recent years after we've left them for dead -- Ole Miss was in even more dire straits the year they went on to win it all. But this team just doesn't feel like it's got IT this year. We'll find out soon enough if these Frogs can dig deep and salvage this season. I'm no longer optimistic.
Kyle
3:02
Travis Bazzana has now passed Charlie Condon in Batting Average and OBP. Bazzana's OPS is within 8 points of Condon's. According to your Synergy metrics, Bazzana's defense has been significantly better and he now narrowly leads Condon in their WAR metric. Has Bazzana supplanted Condon as the Golden Spikes favorite?
Aaron Fitt
3:02
You make a compelling case -- and I'm with you. I never quite bought into the notion that Condon was some runaway favorite like we've sometimes seen in the past -- Bazzana always felt pretty close, and he played a more premium position. And of course you have Hagen Smith, who needs to be right there in that conversation. Feels like a three-man race at the moment, and wide open between the three, but if I had to vote today I'd probably vote for Bazzana, for the reasons you outlined.
Eric Simmons
3:03
What does LSU need to do to get an at large bid? I think maybe go 11-7 in their last 18 SEC games
Kendall Rogers
3:03
I think the sweet spot for LSU is getting to 13 wins in the league. Will that happen? Series remaining against: @ Tennessee, @ Missouri, Auburn, Texas A&M, at Alabama, Ole Miss.

I'm going with L, W, W, L, L, W

-- That would put LSU at 12-18 going into the SEC tournament, so that would mean it would need to win a game or two in Hoover. I think that series @ Alabama could go either way and I have that down as a loss for now. So, the pathway is most certainly there.
FittsMagic
3:05
Did Louisville sneakily turn a corner over the weekend? A series win against UVA next weekend might change a lot in a short window...
Aaron Fitt
3:05
You know, I think you're right -- sneakily, indeed. The Cards lost their first three ACC series and they felt like a generic ACC club that was unlikely to make the postseason. Now they've swept NC State and suddenly they're back to 6-6 in the league, and if they can win that UVa series at home, they'll find themselves on very strong footing for a regional bid. They definitely have my attention.
Sam
3:06
The fighting LSU Tigers are 3-9 and heading to Rocky Top is this a make-or-break weekend for LSU and is one win enough or do they need two? And if they go 0-3 should we put a fork in them?
Aaron Fitt
3:06
Definitely feels make or break to me. They must win this series; winning just one would not be enough, I think.
Gilly
3:07
So UK goes 11-1 to start off SEC play and Coach Cal bolts for  Fayetteville: Baseball School?
Aaron Fitt
3:07
Apparently so! Quite a turn of events. I am just so very impressed with the job Nick Mingione and his staff have done with UK over the last two years. It's taken us a little while to buy in both years, but they just keep on winning. Love their style of play, and love their grit. Seems like a pretty special bunch.
Kyle
3:08
Is it nuts to think West Virginia will win the Big 12? With how competent they've looked so far and with the amount of guys they have coming back from injury (Wetherholt chief among them) I think they could easily seize control of a wide open Big 12.
Aaron Fitt
3:08
Yeah I mean they're tied for first in the league right now, and Oklahoma is trending the wrong way. And you're right, now Wetherholt is healthy and other reinforcements are coming -- the Mountaineers definitely have my attention (In fact I'm planning to head to Morgantown this weekend for the UCF series, which suddenly feels HUGE. Did not see that coming).
Mason
3:09
The Sunbelt seems to be a gauntlet again this season - Where do you see the pecking order now that we've had a few weeks to parse through.
Kendall Rogers
3:09
Right now, I would go with, in order:

  1. Louisiana
  2. Coastal Carolina
  3. Southern Miss
  4. Georgia Southern
  5. Troy
Beaver123
3:12
When you guys are projecting what the committee will do on your tournament field, how do you factor sweeps vs. series wins? If you were the actual tournament committee would you do it differently than they do?
Kendall Rogers
3:12
Beaver -- the committee actually 'officially' only looks at singular wins, though they've started using series wins verbiage a little more over the past few years. I've always thought it looks kind of silly to look at single wins when our entire sport is based off series wins. As for me, if I was the committee chair, I'd be most curious with what series have you won vs. how many single wins did you accumulate.
Aaron Fitt
3:12
But also, sweeps do matter! And they SHOULD!
Daniel
3:12
Where do USC Trojans stand in terms of the postseason? It would be hard for me to fathom that a top 3 team in the pac-12 on pace for 18 conference wins would be left out.
Aaron Fitt
3:12
They're trending for sure... but that RPI is still just No. 98, and they're still below .500 overall. If they can get to 18 conference wins and create some distance between them and that .500 mark, they've got a shot to get in even if the RPI doesn't get inside the top 60s, but it needs to at least get into the 60s to have any shot at all.
Guest
3:14
Chances Boston College makes the tourney?
Aaron Fitt
3:14
They're currently 6-9 in the ACC, need to get to at least 13 ACC wins to have any shot, and would like their chances a lot more if they got to 14. Looking at their remaining schedule, I'd probably project them for 12 or 13, so they'll need to slightly overperform expectations to get in -- but they're definitely in the mix.
RB
3:15
Thoughts on Fresno State. How many wins do they need to get into a regional? Is a MWC tournament win their only hope?
Kendall Rogers
3:15
Really like what Ryan Overland has done with that team this season -- sitting at 22-9 and sitting an impressive 3 1/2 games ahead of AF and UNM in first place. However, it's going to be difficult to impossible to become an at-large team with an RPI of 124. The non-conference slate, unfortunately, has been an absolute killer from an RPI standpoint, and the league the Bulldogs are in absolutely does not help either.
GoodKarma
3:15
What do we think about K State and the Big12.  SO up and down.
Aaron Fitt
3:15
Yeah tell me about it -- I keep trying to double down on my preseason love for the Wildcats, and then they drop series to make it harder to double down, but they they rebound -- round and round we go. All that said, they're 7-5 in the league and No. 27 in the RPI, so they're in very good shape for an at-large bid. Love the way they scheduled this year.
Brock
3:16
Do you see any way Auburn climbs out of the hole they are in?  The pitching is atrocious right now, giving up 14 bombs to the Vols over the weekend.  I'm having a hard time seeing it.
Aaron Fitt
3:16
I've been saying for weeks now that I'm quite concerned about Auburn, and now they're 2-10 in the league, and I just don't think they've got the arms to get it done this year.
Drew
3:18
How is a 4-8 SEC team (Alabama) still ranked?
Aaron Fitt
3:18
Well Wake Forest was 4-8 in the ACC last week and then they swept No. 11 ranked Virginia Tech. But anyway -- Bama has two good series wins vs. Tennessee and South Carolina, plus a 3-0 week against a good field at the Frisco Classic, so those things are propping them up just enough despite getting swept twice in SEC play -- which is why they dropped 12 spots in the rankings this week.
cool 1
Aggiefan
3:18
What do yall think A&M’s floor will have to be to get a top 8 seed? .500 SEC ball the rest of the way?
Kendall Rogers
3:18
Aggie -- With where A&M is from an RPI standpoint, it will be in very good shape if it does what I think it will do. I have the Aggies with 16-18 wins before the Arkansas series. If that's the case (and that series is at home), A&M would probably be a slam dunk Top 8 seed with a decent showing against the Hogs and a decent showing in Hoover. The Ags are in a really good spot right now.
Deke
3:20
Would it be fair to say there is a clear-top 10 amongst the college draft prospects? Seems like Condon, Bazzana, Wetherholt, Kurtz, Cags, King, Montgomery, Honeycutt, Burns, and Smith have separated themselves from the pack. Anyone else I'm missing? Coming from a Nats fan who have the #10 overall pick :)
Aaron Fitt
3:20
I think Jonathan Santucci and Trey Yesavage also belong in that conversation, and maybe a James Tibbs (feels to me like a can't-miss bat, I've really kinda fallen for him as a prospect). I'd probably put Amick in that group as well.
cool 1
Aaron Fitt
3:22
OK folks, that's all for me today, thanks for another great week of questions!
Deke
3:23
Who's draft stock has taken the sharpest hit this year? Is it someone like a Sirota or Hartle? What about the biggest riser who is now in contention for a top-10 pick?
Kendall Rogers
3:23
Biggest riser would be Tibbs, Yesavage or Amick -- Bigger drop would have to be: UCLA's Cody Schrier or USC's Austin Overn. Both have dropped, but Schrier was down more than 50 spots in our latest prospect rankings.
cool 1
Hatter
3:26
Who is your favorite in the ASUN at this point? Big series win for Stetson this past weekend!
Kendall Rogers
3:26
Both Stetson and Jacksonville have done some impressive, high-end things. I would throw Ian Farrow and FGCU in the mix, too, but I think I'd slightly lean Steve Trimper's club for now.
CajunJoe
3:27
Cajuns in top 25 for first time in awhile. How would you compare this team to the 2014 team that made it to the supers?
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