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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: March 16
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Aaron Fitt
1:00
I think that pitching gives Florida State national championship upside, really. I would put that Mendes-Beard-Moore trio up among the very best in the nation, and I really like the weapons they have in the bullpen too, especially Abraham, who I just think is a dude. Elite pitching can take a team a very long way in the postseason, and I was also quite encouraged by what I saw from the offense this weekend against some big-time Wake Forest arms. Link Jarrett will tell you this team is built around pitching, and that is its strength -- no question about that. But I think the lineup is also solid enough for FSU to make a serious run in June. Like that team a whole lot.
Steven
1:04
Is Auburn one of the most unassuming Top 5 teams? Feels like they're still flying under the radar a bit, but this week could change that.  Four games at Plainsman Park between Top 5 teams. It has to be the biggest regular season week for Auburn baseball in a long, long time. Georgia Tech then Texas. What do you expect from the Tigers this week? And are they a legit National Title contender?
Aaron Fitt
1:04
"Unassuming" is a good word for it; Auburn has just kinda quietly raced off to a 17-2 start, with a couple very nice highlights in that Globe Life 3-0 weekend and a quality series win against Nebraska. Credit Missouri for hanging tough with Auburn this weekend, that series was closer than I think any of us expected, but Auburn's pitching proved up to the task of winning some tight low-scoring games. So why are they "unassuming?"? I guess it feels like they don't have the big-name star power on the mound that a lot of other top contenders have, and their biggest star in the lineup, Chris Rembert, has gotten off to a bit of a quiet start, by his standards. I just think it's a good balanced club, with pieces that fit well together, and they have that "know how to win" intangible trait that great teams have. That said -- I still don't have them in my inner circle of title contenders. But I may feel very differently this time next week, if they pass this GT/Texas gauntlet with flying colors.
Andrew
1:04
Will USM's pitching be enough to offset their offensive woes? It's no secret the quality of arms they have, but every game can't be won 3-2.
Kendall Rogers
1:04
Andrew -- The tough thing for me is that the weekend I saw the Golden Eagles, the offense did more than enough. I still like the top of the lineup a lot, but there's no doubt that there are some consistency issues. For instance, Matthew Russo is down to hitting .231, Caleb Stelly at .224 and Tucker Stockman (who has had some big hits, still) at .212. All of those guys HAVE hit before this season, so there's plenty of hope there.
B1G
1:05
Close your eyes and envision the 2026 CWS final, who do you see right now?
Aaron Fitt
1:05
I'm not gonna overthink it -- UCLA vs. Texas would be scintillating. As of today, it feels like those are the two best teams out there... But you know, it's baseball, and there's a whole long way to go. Lots of very talented teams that could wind up emerging as title favorites between now and June.
Greg
1:08
I know the Bruins are off to a great start and this might be nitpicking, but is it reasonable to be worried about how the back half of the bullpen has thrown lately?
Aaron Fitt
1:08
I am sure not worried about the UCLA pen. Give me Easton Hawk and Wylan Moss to build my bullpen around, and I'll go to war with those guys. Plus there are lots of other very good arms around them, with Randall and Iwanaga and Ian May and others, they've got depth as well as proven stars who are warriors in tight spots. Nobody is perfect all the time, but I think that bullpen is outstanding.
cool 2
Jaime
1:10
Feels like Oregon is the forgotten team in the B1G. I don’t know if you’ve noticed but their pitching is realllllly good. And their veteran bats are very good. What’s your outlook for em?!
Aaron Fitt
1:10
I wouldn't say they're forgotten, but I get what you're saying that UCLA and USC have generated more headlines, partly because of the schedule Oregon has played. But we talked about the Ducks on today's pod, made that exact point you just made about their pitching being quite formidable to go along with a lineup we knew would be good. One of these years Oregon is going to break through to Omaha, and this team feels like it's got a chance to get it done.
Scotty
1:11
Was the ball hit by Tennessee with two outs in the ninth really going to clear the wall?  I'm not so sure.
Aaron Fitt
1:11
It looked to me like it was gonna go out, but I have not given the clip the full Zapruder treatment. Regardless -- what a finish to that series.
Toast
1:12
How surprised are you with Penn State? Thought they have a lot of promise, but they have been awful.
Aaron Fitt
1:12
Quite surprised. As a staff, we thought Penn State would be a top-half Big Ten team with a chance to make a run at a regional -- did not expect them to be 5-13 right now. Looks like we were just wrong; their pitching is a real problem.
Westy
1:14
How many non-west coast teams from the BIG 10 will make the tournament?  Seems like they're going to take a lot of losses from UCLA, USC, and Oregon.
Aaron Fitt
1:14
I think the answer is one: Nebraska. Maybe one more gets in there (Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota have all shown flashes), but I think Nebraska is the only one I really believe in as a regional team. Joe Healy brought up Iowa on our pod last night though, and they do seem intriguing, so they're on the radar for sure.
Devils
1:16
How would you stack ASU’s weekend rotation up against the others in the Big 12? I’ll take Carlon, Overbay, and Klecker all day.
Aaron Fitt
1:16
If Klecker continues to pitch like he did this weekend, that's a game changer. I'm a huge believer in Calron and Overbay, those are real dudes (though I know Overbay wasn't great this week). If Klecker is indeed back to his old form from 2023 (or just in that ballpark) and he's the Sunday guy, I think that is the best rotation in the Big 12.
TampaBulls
1:17
How do you handicap the AAC this year? Has USF moved into the poll position to capture the league title? Is anything less than a sweep vs. Rice not going to get us top 25 consideration?
Kendall Rogers
1:17
Tampa -- Definitely have my eye on USF. I wrote up the Bulls earlier last week in my weekly column and highlighted their successes in year two of the Mitch Hannahs era. That guy is doing his thing yet again. I still am very much on board with UTSA, though I'm not sure what the hell happened over the weekend against UTA, and ECU is top of mind as well. I still think Charlotte is a solid club as well, though a series loss at home to St. John's surprised me a little.
ACC
1:19
How many true ACC teams are contenders for Omaha?
Aaron Fitt
1:19
Georgia Tech, Virginia, NC State, Florida State, UNC feel like the top tier at the moment, and all are very very legit Omaha contenders. I still think Louisville, Wake and Clemson also have Omaha upside, I'm not close to burying any of them. So that's eight teams that feel like potential Omaha teams to me, with Miami a ninth that could also make that kind of run if they can get back on track. They have CWS talent, just not playing at a very high level over the last three weeks. They're ninth in my pecking order, but also a team on the radar, just have plenty to figure out.
SoonerStichHead
1:19
OU's 1-0 in conference series with 2025CamJohnson...how many conference series can OU win with the same version of Cam Johnson we saw Friday vs A&M
Kendall Rogers
1:19
I'm willing to give him a mulligan -- we will see if that continues, though. The Aggies merely sat back and made him throw strikes. I watched his first couple of innings, and it felt like he was just over-driving that slider to his armside a little too much, and the umpire wasn't giving a generous outside part of the plate. You'd think he will be pretty motivated going against his old team in LSU this weekend. If that continues, it puts the Sooners in a tough spot, but also think they have enough offense (as we saw this weekend), to mask a deficiency here and there on the mound.
Billy
1:22
I understand the rankings outcome given poll mechanics, but the gap between OU and TAMU feels big given what we saw this weekend. Aggies dropping two 1-run games on the road basically puts them on even footing with the Sooners (or vice versa if you want to be negative and say OU is down near TAMU). Thoughts on what you saw in Norman?
Aaron Fitt
1:22
I know what you mean -- feels like that series was basically played to a draw, with Sunday as a total coin flip game in wild wind conditions. I think the rankings kinda reflect that outcome -- both teams basically stayed about the same, plus/minus a spot. A&M just started the week lower because of their soft nonconference schedule; they only had one win against anything close to a regional team (ASU), whereas Oklahoma made a big jump after that 3-0 weekend at Globe Life in week one, then just kinda held their ground by taking care of business against lesser teams for most of the next three weeks. But to the crux of your question: those two teams feel very close together, I do not think Oklahoma is dramatically better. If they played 10 games on a neutral field, it might be 5-5.
PSteves
1:23
When can we start saying there’s enough data in for RPI to start to feel adequate to compare?
Kendall Rogers
1:23
I tend to believe it varies from year to year, but this year, it looks like we've still got another couple of weeks, minimum. Some examples of some outliers still being pretty high would be Purdue at 19, Missouri State at 11 and UC Davis at 23. Would also throw a 9-9 ACC team in Virginia Tech being at 27 in the RPI into the mix as well.
cool 2
Chris
1:25
Thoughts on Texas A&M after the tightly-fought series against the Sooners?
Kendall Rogers
1:25
Well, with righthanded pitcher Josh Stewart badly injured over the weekend, the bullpen is in an incredibly tough spot. There is a lot of pressure, for instance, on a guy like RHP Clayton Freshcorn to go out there at least twice the weekend. It worked out this past weekend with him going three shutout to end game two, but how healthy/fresh will he be on May 1? They are going to need some bullpen arms to step up over the next few weeks. Vargas cannot be the first guy out of the bullpen in a high-leverage SEC series, IMO.
Niti
1:25
In the past you have said you believe in Michigan's chances to earn an at-large bid.  Unfortunately they couldn't steal a game against UCLA, still believe they play their way to an at-large bid?
Aaron Fitt
1:25
We were optimistic about the Wolverines early, but now they're sitting at just 9-9 overall. They HAVE played a very good schedule, so 9-9 doesn't completely bury them by any means, but a couple losses to CSUN and Pepperdine hurt their stock some. Right now, I've got them more in that 6-8 range on my list of Big Ten regional contenders, which would not make them a regional team. But they're not out of it by any means; if they can make a run in conference, the committee could wind up rewarding them for their strong nonconference schedule.
Jimbo11
1:27
Is FSU that good or Wake Forest that bad?
Aaron Fitt
1:27
FSU is very good, the pitching is truly elite, as I said earlier. Wake Forest is NOT a bad team -- but they did not play well this weekend, there's no way to sugarcoat that. Tom Walter said after Saturday's game that it was one of the more disappointing losses he could remember, he was just very disheartened by his team's offensive approach. Great arms can frustrate good hitters, but Wake did not adjust well this weekend. Better days are ahead, and the sheer firepower on the mound still gives Wake plenty of ceiling, but I also think this is probably Wake's most vulnerable lineup in several years. That said, there are still plenty of good players in that lineup, led by Kade Lewis and Dalton Wentz, who are stars.
Billy
1:28
Follow up then. Do you think OU is closer to the 20th best team, or is TAMU closer to a top 10 team?
Aaron Fitt
1:28
My gut says both teams feel more 15-ish.
Aaron Fitt
1:28
OK everybody, fun chat today, thanks for some great questions. See you next week!
Go Fropgs
1:30
TCU's injuries are a BIG issue, and are keeping some strong arms out of starts/rotations.   Bullpen seems to be an area of concern, what is your take?
Kendall Rogers
1:30
Frogs -- It feels like with some of the injuries, and with LaPour out, that the Frogs will need to have some guys really really step up out of the bullpen. I remember talking to Kirk in the fall, and he pretty much thought if they had an injury or two, they'd be in some trouble. And we're, unfortunately, seeing that play out right now. There's enough talent present to turn things around on the mound, but this is a pretty tough time of the year to be tinkering around.
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