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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 1
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Aaron Fitt
12:04
Hello friends, hope you all enjoyed the weekend. Let's get after it.
Jacob Miller
12:06
If Kansas State's win total lands in the mid 30s with a below average SOS, will the committee take into account their Big 12 standing? It feels like a 3-3 finish against OSU and TCU would still have them on the right side of the bubble being 14-10 in league play. A couple wins in Arlington would go a long way as well I would think. How do you guys see this recent climb by Kstate?
Kendall Rogers
12:06
Jacob -- I think conference finish absolutely matters in Kansas State's case. Right now, I would have Kansas State in based on the fact it is now TWO full games ahead of Texas Tech in the conference standings with a respectable RPI. I think if you're a top four Big 12 team with an RPI within striking distance, there's a pretty good chance you're making the field.
Heel
12:08
Thoughts on UNC after a gut check weekend at VT? Big RPI chances ahead down the stretch and the RPI got a nice boost this week as well.
Aaron Fitt
12:08
Yeah, that kinda felt like a potential turning point for UNC's season. Sounded like the little back-and-forth with the Hokies after a VT home run might have lit a fuse with the Tar Heels; they brought it in those next two games. After getting stomped in the serious opener, it was startling to look like Carolina's slide was continuing and they were gonna find themselves in serious jeopary, but now with an RPI in the mid-30s and back to .500 in the league, they're in fine shape for an at-large.
Matt Mabe
12:08
Is Duke being a top 8 national seed as simple as winning both series against GT and Miami to finish?
Kendall Rogers
12:08
I would be surprised if Duke wasn't a top eight national seed with those series wins + a decent showing in Durham. That would mean Duke finishes 18-11 in the league (before Durham) and would have an easy Top 10 RPI. It's hard to deny an ACC team a top eight with those kind of metrics. With that said, what matters with RPI teams around them should account for something as well. It's not just what Duke does -- but also what other teams around them do.
Timothy
12:10
WVU is now up to #12 in the D1Baseball Poll and #16 in the RPI.. Do they have any chance at getting a Top 8 seed? What would they need to do the rest of the way minimum in order to be Hosting a Regional? Thank you!!
Kendall Rogers
12:10
Timothy -- WVU definitely has a shot at a top eight seed. I would have the Mountaineers behind a few teams at the moment, but it's certainly a possibility. The strong points on the resume right now are obviously conference standing + strong road record. What is really hurting WVU right now is the fact the Big 12 is just not very good (RPI wise).
cool 1
Sam
12:10
Can Duke host a regional at their on-campus stadium or will they have to host at a minor league park?
Aaron Fitt
12:10
Duke plays most of its home games at Durham Bulls Athletic Park, a Triple-A venue where the Devils have their own permanent locker room. That would be a great place to host, but looking at the Bulls schedule, it looks like they are home for regionals weekend, so that could be a real issue. I will have to reach out to Duke to see what their plan is, because it sure looks right now like that team is quite likely to host.
JB
12:12
What does K-State have to do to get ranked or in the NCAA tourney?  Was the Texas Tech series not enough since you've LOVED them all year long?
Kendall Rogers
12:12
JB - Kansas State was right there in the discussion for the Top 25 with Clemson. The issue for Kansas State is A) I think there are some better teams and B) the Big 12 is a hot jumbled mess right now. For instance, what's the pitch for Kansas State to be ranked ahead of Texas right now? If you're going to rank Texas, how can you not rank Oklahoma State? You get the picture -- it's a bunch of above average teams all beating up on each other. It presents a great foundation for the conference tournament, but not a great foundation to have a bunch of teams in the Top 25.
Alex from Atascocita
12:13
What is driving the ranking of East Carolina? They are 12-8 over their last 20 yet really have not moved much. Been between 8th and 15th just during that stretch even though only 9-6 in AAC during that time. Is this more a reflection of national respect ECU has built upon over the past 5 years or so or is it more attributed to the parity we are seeing in college baseball?
Aaron Fitt
12:13
Well, part of it was that a bunch of teams behind ECU in the rankings had terrible weekends last week cushioning their fall. And ECU did manage to win its series this week, even though it was not an awesome week. It's been a bit more of a grind lately, but the Pirates are holding up OK. We still like their team (especially the arms) and their body of work is still solid, even though it's likely not going to be a regional host type resumé at this point.
Matt M
12:14
Time to panic in Lubbock?
Kendall Rogers
12:14
Matt -- Not time to panic, but the Red Raiders are going to need to finish strong. The issue for Tech right now is that not only is its RPI sitting at 60, it is also the fifth team in the Big 12 and got swept by Texas, which is right ahead of the Raiders in the conference standings. If Tech is going to continue to have an RPI in the 50-60 range, the conference standing will need to be better on Selection Day -- or, they need to go on a run in Arlington, which is certainly possible.
Alex K
12:15
Is Fullerton back? How impressive have they been after another winning weekend?
Aaron Fitt
12:15
By golly, I think the Titans are indeed back! Hand up, I did not expect this Fullerton club to wind up in the Top 25 this year, and I don't think anyone on our staff saw this coming. Jason Dietrich and his fine coaching staff are really doing a hell of a job, and these Titans are playing with a ton of confidence. It's not a vintage Fullerton team when it comes to talent -- it's easy to forget how many big leaguers have come out of this program, because it has such a blue-collar grinder type of culture -- but it's a well coached bunch that has really come together. They're dangerous.
Vandychris5
12:16
Do you see a scenario where UConn, being in the Top 10, is actually chosen as a regional host? I would love to see them rewarded for investing in facilities. Make a regional with #1 UConn, #2 Maryland, #3 Northeastern, #4 Army. Give us your thoughts.
Kendall Rogers
12:16
vandy -- if UCONN is a Top 10-12 team in the human polls and has a Top 16 RPI, it will host a first-round regional, IMO. I don't think the committee denies under those two parameters. But we will see. UCONN is 17 right now and there are some real dregs on its RPI within the remaining Big East schedule.
VandyMan
12:18
Walk me through why South Carolina is still ranked 3 over Vanderbilt.  It should've been Vanderbilt at 3 then since they took a series from South Carolina, South Carolina at 4 (since they now have 2 series losses), Florida at 5 (since they got swept by SC).
Aaron Fitt
12:18
I mean, if Vandy hadn't gotten swept just last weekend, sure. But that sweep at the hands of the Vols makes a difference to me, offsetting the fact that South Carolina has one more series loss -- at least the Gamecocks haven't been swept. Gamecocks also are seriously banged up at the moment but still hanging in there, and we expect them to get healthy again soon. Overall, these three teams have very similar bodies of work, just didn't feel like a time to shuffle the order.
Charles
12:22
how close is Clemson to entering both the Top 25 as well as being a potential host? The turnaround from a few weeks ago to now is remarkable for the Tigers.
Aaron Fitt
12:22
We did have a lengthy discussion about ranking Clemson this week -- four straight series wins, and the last three were pretty impressive (vs. NC, at NC State, at BC). At 11-10 in the league, Clemson is still just a tick light for the Top 25, but that's a hell of a job digging out of a deep hole early in conference play, and if they keep it going with a home series win against a struggling Louisville club this weekend, the Tigers will probably make a healthy leap into the Top 25. And yes, suddenly Clemson is 12th in the RPI and above .500 in the league; I think if they can finish the season with a winning conference record and a top 12 RPI, they will host. Amazing turnaround by Bakich's crew.
cool 1
VolNation
12:23
First I have to commend you for not being reactionary and keeping the top teams in place when the weekend plays out in a way that doesn't justify moving them.  There is no logical argument for moving  Florida ahead of South Carolina so I was glad to see you did the right thing.  Now the important stuff, Vols playing better than anyone in the country right now.  I think hosting is now a real possibility but is there any chance at top 8 or has that ship sailed.
Kendall Rogers
12:23
Vol -- that ship has definitely not sailed. The Vols could still finish the regular season with 17 league wins if it won 2/3 in the final three series. Sweep one of those series and you win 18 conference games going into Hoover. I think that puts the Volunteers in pretty good shape to get a top eight. The Needs Report says UT can be Top 8 by winning all but one of its remaining games. I think a little run in Hoover would be necessary.
Chris P
12:25
Loved Etheridge's coverage of the Hogs this weekend - Hogs feel like they're a regional host team at best  but keep finding ways to stay top 5. Playoffs are all about the edge - do you think the Hogs ability to win through injuries will give the Hogs the swagger they need to win it all ~if~ all the pieces come back healthy this month? An infusion of Wegner, Josenberger & a fully healthy Tygart is quite the late season boost.
Aaron Fitt
12:25
Yeah that's well said, Chris -- the fact that Arkansas keeps on finding ways to win series every weekend when they aren't close to full strength is super, super encouraging for this team's long-term outlook, because we know they are going to get that huge infusion of returnees down the stretch, as you point out. This team clearly has a ton of character, and its depth has been tested and been proven up to the task. Couldn't be more impressed with Arkansas this year.
Nate
12:25
Do you see UTSA or DBU as the likely host from C-USA at this moment? Are both locks for the Field of 64?
Kendall Rogers
12:25
Nate -- I think Dallas Baptist could definitely still host. The RPI is within range. UTSA's RPI actually took a hit over the past week, so hosting is out of the question for the Roadrunners right now. I'd still have them comfortably in the field, however.
Steven F
12:27
Thoughts on the Horns as of now? Trending in good direction.. Kennedy, Campbell, Brown all hitting. LBJ and Tanner Witt returning, etc. Any chance we see another regional in ATX?
Kendall Rogers
12:27
Steven -- Really nice weekend for Texas so far. I watched yesterday's game and loved the way Lebarron Johnson pitched. I was disappointed Texas used him in such a low leverage situation against Oklahoma two weekends ago. They threw him in a high-leverage situation against TCU and he flourished. That's a big development. I thought Coach Rooney said it best on ESPNU yesterday -- Texas typically is going to be a team that may not be flashy, but will make you go out there and beat them.
Big12Fan
12:30
Is it as simple as the Big 12 Regular Season champ hosts a regional and that’s it from the league? Is there a scenario where two teams host if someone like Ok State or Texas gets hot down the stretch?
Aaron Fitt
12:30
I think two hosts from the Big 12 doesn't feel super likely right now, and heck, one host for the regular-season champ is no guarantee (See: TCU, 2022). I really do like how WVU's hosting case is shaping up, feels like the Mountaineers are well on track. And OK State is still very much alive in the hosting race, with an RPI back up to No. 20 and an improving conference record. So maybe the Big 12 does have a shot to get two hosts, certainly a better chance than it looked like they had a week or two ago.
Guest
12:31
What will make LSU drop from #1 before regionals?
Aaron Fitt
12:31
If the Tigers lose a weekend series while Wake keeps on winning every weekend, I would expect a change there, since those teams have very similar resumés and talent. The Tigers just haven't blinked, so the Deacs haven't been able to pass them.
Bull
12:31
What is Texas A&M's path to the field of 64? Is it too little too late?
Kendall Rogers
12:31
Bull -- The Aggies probably need to get to 14 wins in the conference to make the NCAA tournament. A&M is at nine right now. I think they lose the Florida series but win one, take the Alabama series, and let's give them a slight edge in the MSU series. That's 14 wins right there. That Alabama series at home is a must.
Jay
12:33
Despite winning their weekend series vs. FSU, ND slipped some in the RPI due to the series-opening loss.  With an RPI hovering around 40 and a league record of 13-11, what do they need to do to secure an at-large berth?  Would finishing 3-3 in the league against NC State & BC and sweeping through the non-conf be enough?  I'm a little concerned about how the committee will look at their NC SOS of 250ish.
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