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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 1
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Kendall Rogers
12:33
Jay -- I think if Notre Dame is in the Top 45 and is 2 or 3 games above .500 in the ACC aggregate, it is probably in the NCAA tournament. That's just a program that, weather wise, deals with a lot more constraints than some other programs in the league.
Aaron Fitt
12:35
Although it's worth noting that the committee seems to hold some grudge against Notre Dame, considering the way the Irish have been hosed two years in a row. (I'm not serious about the grudge, but it has been absolutely baffling how the Irish were done dirty two years in a row. Hopefully they get the benefit of the doubt they deserve this year if they wind up on the at-large bubble).
Vinny Mack
12:33
Good morning! Love the coverage... with the season getting closer to the end, are we still liking Coastal Carolina as a top 8 national seed? And would it benefit them to play the schedule game of canceling midweeks?
Aaron Fitt
12:33
Yeah, the Chants are certainly still in top-8 position, with a No. 7 RPI and still sitting alone atop the Sun Belt standings. I think those remaining midweek games against Charlotte, Clemson and UNC can only help Coastal strengthen its case, especially if they can win two of those three. Going 0-3 in those games would be a setback, but 1-2 would probably be all right. Regardless, I promise you the Chants have no interest in ducking those midweek games.
Guest
12:34
where is Okla State in your rankings? They have been very inconsistent and haven't shown up to the biggest series they've had, but the metrics still love them.
Kendall Rogers
12:34
Guest -- Metrics love the Cowboys for sure, but they still have more to prove in my eyes, If you pull back the curtain, OSU is pretty much living off that Texas series at home. It lost series to TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia. That's not a Top 25 resume right now, IMO.
Caneaholic
12:37
With a final series vs duke at home could the canes sneak into the top 8 spot to host.  👏🏼🙏
cool 1
Aaron Fitt
12:37
Certainly -- Miami has a very nice body of work, and that RPI made a nice recover into the mid-teens this week, to go along with a 14-10 record in the ACC, that's not too far removed from a top eight case. Going 4-2 in the final two ACC weekends at Pitt and vs. Duke would get Miami to 18-12, and I think they'd be very much in the top 8 hunt with that profile.
SlumpbustersBaseball
12:37
Is Oregon capable of winning a regional even with their struggles on Sundays? They’ve picked up some solid series wins but have dropped the Sunday game against UCLA, OSU, Stanford and ASU
Kendall Rogers
12:37
Oregon has a pretty strong offensive lineup, and I think there's plenty in the tank pitching wise, especially at the front-end of the rotation with Jace Stoffal to win a regional. U of O is not immune to having some issues on Sundays. LSU's pitching, for instance, is not exactly stellar on Sundays. WTS -- it would obviously be optimal if someone could step up in that third role. That's a nerve racking position to be in come regional time.
Andrew Willsly
12:39
What is Michigan States chances at a regional?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
The Spartans just keep hanging around the at-large race -- the RPI has kept them out of our projected field, but at No. 66, they're really still in striking distance, with solid opportunities to boost the RPI over the next three weekends (road series at Illinois and at Iowa, then home vs. Indiana). If Michigan State wins two of those three series, gets inside the top 50 or so in the RPI and finishes second or third in the league, I think they got a real chance. The path is there.
Evan
12:39
If Maryland keeps up the momentum,is there a chance they can host another regional this year? Seems like their last three series are pretty winnable.
Kendall Rogers
12:39
Evan -- Maryland will be on the road unless something drastic changes. Right now, the Terps have no pathway to be in the Top 32 of the RPI. If that holds, there's zero shot Maryland is hosting a regional. The worst RPI to host in the Top 16 era was a team that finished 23-24.
cool 1
Sam
12:41
how would you evaluate Oregon State’s chance to host vs other Pac-12 schools ?
Aaron Fitt
12:41
Still feels like the Beavers are behind Stanford, ASU (due to the head-to-head result and the conference standings) and Oregon (due to RPI) in the pecking order for Pac-12 host spots, but the gap between ASU/Oregon and OSU is quite small, and I could see the Beavs passing those other teams by winning its last two conference series against Utah and UCLA. OSU has been trending the right direction for a while now, and I kinda like their chances to sneak into a host spot.
Mr. 23
12:43
At this point, I see four pretty clear delineations in the SEC.

Top 8 Seed Contenders:
LSU
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Arkansas
Florida

2 Seeds:
Tennessee
Kentucky
Alabama

Bubble:
Auburn
Texas A&M
Georgia

Out:
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Missouri

Do you agree with these? If so, what's your pecking order in all of these areas? I assume we'll hear some of this on the Nerdcast, I just think in the SEC moreso than other conferences, intra-conference pecking order matters more.
Aaron Fitt
12:43
Yeah, I think you're spot-on here. And I think my pecking order pretty much aligns with the way you have them listed here.
Greg
12:43
With Chase Shores done for the year, who do you like as LSU's third starter? Can Christian Little be that guy? Does Thatcher Hurd get another shot?
Kendall Rogers
12:43
Greg -- I know LSU was really encouraged by Thatcher Hurd's midweek start. Frankly, I think from a sheer stuff standpoint, it would be optimal for LSU to be able to get Hurd right. He has the best stuff of that general group, IMO. I know they've made some tweaks with him both mechanically and mentally. We will see what happens.
BFaIS Brendan
12:45
My sick fascination with Big Ten baseball continues. After Maryland routed Indiana, everyone in the top half seems to have RPI issues, gaudy records, and are within a series of each other in the conference standings.  Last year Michigan saved the league from being a 1-bid league, this year it seems safe to have three at-large bids in Maryland, Indiana, and Iowa.  Can you see a Michigan State and/or Rutgers sneak in?  Will Michigan win the tournament yet again?
Kendall Rogers
12:45
Right now, I would definitely have Maryland and Indiana in the field of 64. I also would have Iowa in the field, but it would be close. That series against Michigan State in a couple of weekends could loom pretty large.
UKant Be Serious
12:48
Boyd's World says Kentucky can go winless the rest of the way and still finish with a Top 16 RPI. Even if they scratch out a few wins, there is a legitimate chance they could lose their last seven series; currently at four with Gamecocks, at Vols, Gators left. That's a bubble team just to get in, not a borderline host, isn't it?
Kendall Rogers
12:48
Kentucky will have literally zero shot to host if it  loses seven-straight SEC series to end the season. If that happens, the committee needs to just go ahead and hand the torch to someone else. Zero shot.
Beavs AB
12:48
17 Pac-12 wins makes the tournament 100% of the time. 15 Pac-12 wins makes the tournament 0% of the time. 16 wins and RPI matters and needs to be above 45. No exceptions to this rule. Are there other conferences with such a stark cut line, and do you think the committee is aware of this precedent?
Aaron Fitt
12:48
I can tell you that I actually wasn't aware of this precedent -- I just had to go back through the standings to see for myself, and you're right, since 2017 no Pac-12 team with 15 conference wins has made regionals. That kinda shocks me -- except when you look at each individual case, there was really only one team (Arizona in 2019) that had a viable at-large case. The rest of them were fairly close to .500 overall and/or had serious RPI problems that just made them not serious candidates. Not sure if that's a cause/effect thing or just a coincidence, but it's pretty eye-opening.
cool 1
Eric Simmons
12:49
Can Arizona State get in the hosting discussion with a series win over Stanford?
Kendall Rogers
12:49
If Arizona State could finish Top 23-24 in the RPI and finish top two or something in the Pac 12, it would have a very solid shot to host. The same goes for someone like Oregon State. Both of those teams are clawing their way closer and closer to the hosting discussion.
Eric Simmons
12:51
Can Washington get an at large bid?
Kendall Rogers
12:51
Absolutely. The Huskies are suddenly in a position of strength with an RPI of 52, a winning league record and a H2H sweep over another bubble team in USC. You know what concerns me, though? Two straight road series coming up + having the No. 255 non-conference SOS. The committee will absolutely hate that last figure.
Guest
12:51
LSU and Wake Forest have been sitting at #1 and #2 for several months now. While we all know LSU's Paul Skenes is a stud on the mound, but Wake's Lowder, Hartle, and Sullivan aren't far behind. Who would you take in a hypothetical CWS best of three?
Aaron Fitt
12:51
LSU has the best pitcher in the nation... but Lowder is probably No. 2, and Wake Forest definitely has the best pitching staff from top to bottom. That rotation is crazy good, and I love the Minacci/Roland/Massey-led bullpen as well. So.... that matchup would be juicy as heck. (Yes, you're right, I'm avoiding the question.)
party 1
Lack-12
12:52
Do we need to start talking about how the Pac-12 could be a four-bid league? The Trojans are done. UCLA has lost four of its last five league series, plus has Oregon State and at ASU the final two weeks of the regular-season. Bruins and Devils currently with RPIs in the 30s. If they both stumble going into the final weekend (ASU has Stanford and at USC), could that end up being a play-in series?
Kendall Rogers
12:52
I feel pretty good about Stanford, ASU, Oregon and Oregon State. I think Washington is in the mix as well, and I do still believe in UCLA. The Bruins are sitting at 35 in the RPI with a 10-9-1 mark in the league. Aaron can talk more about UCLA since he saw them over the weekend, but I typically will believe in a John Savage coached club.
Aaron Fitt
12:54
This weekend felt like a back breaker for UCLA -- up by a run in the eighth inning of the rubber game and then give up a grand slam to lose the series, just a gut punch. That was a super hard-fought series that really could have gone either way all three days; UCLA is a good club that is fighting awfully hard, even though injuries have really taken a toll. I think the Bruins will scratch and claw their way into a regional.
AaronT
12:53
How many ACC teams have a shot at hosting?
Aaron Fitt
12:53
Six: Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, Virginia, Clemson, Boston College --  not necessarily in that order. But don't expect all six to actually land host spots; 4-5 feels about right.
Mike
12:58
After a home sweep of Arizona....the Beavers are Top 15 in the D1 poll, have an RPI in the 20's, and have creeped back up to 4th in the PAC-12. If OSU finishes the season with series wins for their remaining 3 series (and let's say gets to the Quaters of the PAC-12 tourney), do they sneak in the hosting discussion as a 15/16 seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:58
If Oregon State wins its final three Pac 12 series, I would think it would be in solid shape to host. At that point, you'd have 19 Pac 12 wins, a likely Top 16-18 RPI, etc.... the Needs Report says they can't get to the Top 16, but we will see. You don't necessarily HAVE to be Top 16, but just in close proximity.
Jeramey
12:59
It has been a less than ideal college baseball season for the state of Georgia schools. Do you see a school in the state, getting to a regional, if so which one? Thanks as always.
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