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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 12
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Kendall Rogers
12:38
Well, they could very well be a Top 8 seed in our next iteration tomorrow, but I do really like the way. Coastal Carolina is pitching right now. And we know the Chanticleers can hit a little. I also really liked what I saw from Florida over the weekend. Liam Peterson might've thrown a shutout against Texas before the rains came, and Aidan King was fantastic in the series finale. The bullpen is an unfinished product, but there are a lot of things to like about the Gators right now.
Chinook Seedery
12:38
Do yall see Hatch Chile as a host?
Kendall Rogers
12:38
Hatch Chile should host.... best seed on the market.
Aaron Fitt
12:41
You know, I used to have Hatch as the No. 1 overall seed on my board, but watch out for  Cinnamon Toast and Jalapeño Ranch -- both making serious late-season runs.
laughing 1
Nick W
12:40
Which of the Kansas schools has a better chance to steal a regional and head to a Super?
Aaron Fitt
12:40
I like both teams, but I would probably lean K-State here, because I think it helps that they were in the postseason (and won a regional!) just last year, so there's a little more built-in comfort level with being in a regional than Kansas, which hasn't been there in a long time. I know K-State also had a lot of roster turnover, but there are still plenty of holdovers there, and I think experience does matter. Plus I still really like Kansas State's roster, even though I know that team has had ups and downs -- it's a very talented, balanced and varied lineup, and if those three lefties in the rotation are pitching well at the right time, that team can make a real run.
Benge
12:40
Is Oklahoma State cooked? Too little too late?
Kendall Rogers
12:40
Not cooked, but certainly has a lot of work to do over the next week or so. RPI is sitting at 51 with a .500 league record. Need to win the ASU series for sure, and then win a few in Arlington to make the tournament. Lose the ASU series and the Pokes will most definitely have to win the Big 12 tourney. Things could get pretty interesting in Stillwater.
Stephen O
12:42
how many ACC wins does Notre Dame need against Miami and in the conference tournament to get in?
Kendall Rogers
12:42
Would have to win the Miami series and do some serious damage in the ACC tourney. Right now, sitting at three games under .500 in the ACC, the Irish still have much work to do. My issue right now with ND is outside of Louisville, what have they done? Not much meat on the bone resume-wise.
Tyler
12:44
How many of the Top 8 come from the SEC? at the moment you can argue 6 teams have legitimate top 8 resumes but will the committee allow that many from the SEC? you'd have to think LSU, Texas and Arkansas are locks. Right behind them UGA, Vandy and Auburn have practically identical resumes at this point so it's gonna be interesting to see how many the committee allows
Aaron Fitt
12:44
You're spot-on, it's so SEC heavy at the top right now. It's wild that the top ACC team in the RPI is Florida State at No. 9! And the only non-SEC interloper in the top 8 is Oregon State, which has its own resumé flaws (notably, the 0-4 against Oregon). I still think 6 of the top 8 feels too rich for the SEC, but I would bet on 5 when the dust settles.
crying 2
Ducks!
12:44
Can you be specific on what Oregon needs to do to solidify a spot for a host? Feels
Kendall Rogers
12:44
I think Oregon is a lock to host if it wins that Iowa series this weekend. That would assure a very high finish in the Big Ten to go with a Top 18-19 RPI and a pretty solid overall resume. Right now, UO is 7-0 vs. Q1 and 4-2 vs. Q2. Those are pretty solid marks. I also think the eye test will matter (and help) Oregon in the pecking order.
Matt M
12:45
A&M is REALLY done now, right?  Right???  Tell us they're done - please!
Kendall Rogers
12:45
Not done yet -- but the pulse is about 12 beats per minute. The Aggies will have to win the Georgia series AND do some damage in the SEC tournament with a win or two at minimum. The weird thing is this is still a team that could go on a run in the NCAA tournament, but it's not a crew, as of today, that deserves to be in the tourney. I expect things to get rather interesting in College Station in short order with the Aggies lose that series this weekend.
Steve
12:47
When determining the postseason picture, the focus is primarily on the total # of conference wins. Should a similar amount of focus be placed on the # of series wins each team has on their resume? For example, only two SEC teams have 7 conference series wins (Texas and Auburn), while the other national seed/host candidates all have 3-4 series losses each. Does looking at total # of conference wins put too much weight on series sweeps (which are admittedly important) and lose some insight into weekend consistency?
Aaron Fitt
12:47
I tend to agree with you -- and certainly our Top 25 rankings place a lot of emphasis on weekend series wins (although we do certainly intensify our upward or downward adjustments based on sweeps). Historically, I don't think the committee has looked as much at series wins as we have, but they have been a factor.
Caneaholic
12:48
Although UVA swept the canes this weekend if the canes win the ND series do you think they will be a #2 or 3 at-large seed.  Conference record would be 16- 13 with series win.
Aaron Fitt
12:48
I think if the Canes win the Notre Dame series, they will be a No. 2 seed. If not, probably a 3, but still a chance for a 2 with a nice showing in the ACC tourney.
Scott
12:50
What are your thoughts on the Southland Conference potentially being a 2 to 3 bid league this year?
Two bids seem likely, especially with Southeastern and UTRGV sharing the regular-season title. But with Northwestern State coming in red hot, Lamar reaching 40 wins, and McNeese showing consistent performance all season, it truly feels like this tournament is wide open.
The regional-to-super regional style format should also benefit whichever team—or teams—make it to the NCAA Tournament by preparing them well for what’s ahead.
Kendall Rogers
12:50
I tend to think the league will get two bids into the NCAA tournament, but SELA and Lamar don't exactly have highly compelling cases outside of league record. SELA is 50 in the RPI, which historically will not get you into the NCAA tournament as a mid-major program. It's going to be mighty close for one of those two teams (UTRGV or SELA). If someone else besides those two wins the conference tournament, that league is NOT getting three bids barring a shocker.
James
12:51
Is Troy sliding closer to the bubble? Similar to last season where the RPI is close to borderline and they are currently 5 games out of first place in an overall down Sun Belt. Obviously a big series with a surging USM this weekend.
Aaron Fitt
12:51
Nah I think they're still fine -- they're the only team in the country that has not lost a weekend series all year, and I do think that should matter (even though it has been frustrating that they can't sweep anybody). I think as long as they don't get swept at home this weekend, they're safe. If they get swept... they might find themselves sweating, if that RPI tumbles down into the 45-50 range, given how far back they are of first place in the standings.
Mark
12:52
What does Georgia need this weekend for a Top 8? They're #1 in RPI, #1 in Non-Conference RPI and 5th in SOS. Would one more win to place them 17-13 in the league be enough?
Aaron Fitt
12:52
Given how robust that RPI is, it does feel like one more win this weekend will likely seal it for them.
Jeff
12:53
What does NC State need to do to host?
Kendall Rogers
12:53
NC State is going to be an interesting case. I assume the Wolfpack will win that series at home this weekend. If that happens, that's at worst 18-10 in the league entering the ACC tourney with an RPI probably in that 20-25 range. Compelling case. Tells me a win or two in the tourney likely means a host site.
Guest
12:54
hat does southern miss need to do to be in the hosting discussion?
Aaron Fitt
12:54
Certainly they need to win that series at Troy, which should give them a nice RPI boost, which they need. Currently they're No. 30, and I think they probably need to get inside the top 20 by the end of the conference tournament to have a good shot to host. I don't see a Sun Belt team outside the top 20 hosting without a regular-season championship under its belt.
Jake
12:54
How do you think the committee will handle Virginia's RPI considering they lost that road series at FSU with the circumstances on campus?
Kendall Rogers
12:54
As long as Virginia wins that series at VT this weekend, I think you have to view that FSU series and essentially improve UVA's RPI by 5-6 spots at minimum, because that's what would have happened. If UVA wins that VT series, I think it will end up making the field. The eyeball test, I believe, will help UVA as well.
Jacob
12:56
Do you ever see the season expanding past 56 games?
Kendall Rogers
12:56
Never say never. If anything, I think the NCAA would be more apt to shorten the season a hair. There was some talk a few years ago about going from 56 to 52 overall games, but it lost a lot of steam because of COVID, etc. I like where the season is right now. It's the sweet spot.
PIGS
12:56
The hogs weekend was actually a little better than what one would think.  Lost an extra inning game at 1:17 in the morning, got clobbered, then won fairly convincingly on sunday.  Not a good weekend, but hey, its damn near impossible to win in baton rouge.  How are the multiple series losses (paired with impressive series sweeps) going to end up affecting the hogs post season seeding hopes of a top 8?
Aaron Fitt
12:56
Yup I agree -- no shame in that weekend. The cumulative weight of 4 series losses in their last 5 still adds up -- but at the end of the day, they're still 18-9 in the SEC, solo second place, with a top 5 RPI. That's a top 8.
Rob
12:57
Is GT still alive to be a host?
Kendall Rogers
12:57
Absolutely. RPI is 23 and should the Jackets win that series at Duke this weekend, it would probably be in a good spot. I just think GT has the most bizarre resume of any team out there. There is not a lot of meat on the bone -- yet, here GT is with a 17-10 league record.
Gus
12:59
Fact or Fiction: Tennessee should want to go on the road this postseason after dropping their last four home series in conference play.
Kendall Rogers
12:59
Gus - you'd never want to turn down a regional host, or not want to host, but I definitely do think this team would benefit from going on the road in the postseason. That underdog mentality would bring out a lot more energy, etc -- which is something I actually feel like this Tennessee club has lacked at times.
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