JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 13

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 13

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Aaron Fitt

2:33

I feel like winning two of three at Arizona would certainly secure a host, but to get a top-8 they'd probably also need a nice little run in the conference tourney, because the fact is they're currently just 1-2 vs. Q1 (which is wild). If they can sweep Arizona to win the Pac-12 regular-season title, that would change the calculus a bit, make the path to a top-eight much more realistic, I think. If they only win one this weekend and reach the Pac-12 title game, yes, I think they still host.

Mark Jennings

2:35

Alabama is 4-1 over its last 5 games and better than all of those midmajors you have above it. It was silly to rank Troy above Alabama last week and silly to keep Alabama out of the rankings.

Aaron Fitt

2:35

Yeah, hard disagree. Bama is still just 12-15 in the SEC and 12-16 vs. Q1, which doesn't really get me too excited. They'll be in a regional provided they don't get swept at Auburn, and they deserve to be in a regional. But they have not shown me they deserve to be a Top 25 team. They're fine. They're not great.

2:37

How about Wake Forest? You think a top 8 seed is in play if they keep this momentum up these last couple weeks?

Aaron Fitt

2:37

I do, certainly. Suddenly they're 15-12 in the ACC with a No. 9 RPI, and if they can win that last series at NC State, they'll be 17-13 in the league, and presumably tick up a bit more in the RPI. That's a top-eight-ish resumé, heading into the ACC tourney.

B1G Chaos

2:39

So who wins the most thrilling regular season conference race of the year?! Illinois controls its destiny but that is a tall task to sweep Purdue on the road. Neb holds the tiebreaker over ILL but will likely need a sweep of its own to be in contention. Then there’s Purdue who can make their own chaos with a series win/sweep. So as of today if you had to pick who would it be?

Aaron Fitt

2:39

Yeah it's definitely a compelling race. I think I lean Nebraska -- I think Purdue takes 2 of 3 at home vs. Illinois, and the Huskers take care of business at Michigan State. But who knows? Fun race for sure.

Omahogs

2:41

Just as we all suspected, Arkansas won the series against Mississippi State on the strength of their elite offense, while their subpar pitching staff did just enough.

All joking aside, is the takeaway from this weekend from the Hogs more concern about the pitching, optimism that the offense is turning a corner, or something in the middle?

Aaron Fitt

2:41

Something in the middle. I have maintained all year that the Arkansas offense isn't as bad as everyone seems to think (and yes, I get that the numbers are not real flattering... but the personnel have felt to me like a average-ish SEC offense). I would not be at all surprised if the Hogs can stay hot offensively for the weeks to come. But I do think the pitching will bounce back also.

PowerMajor

2:42

Pretend that you have UCI hosting as of today: what would they have to do over the last 6 games to seal that? (@Fullerton, CSN)

Aaron Fitt

2:42

The tricky thing is Irvine is two games behind UCSB in the standings, and the Gauchos are five spots ahead in the RPI. I feel like Irvine needs to find a way to overtake UCSB in the standings, because I just don't see both of those teams hosting.

Poll Mechanics

2:44

Maryland's RPI is in range, but are the conference standings too big a hill to climb to get into at-large range? In order to even finish in a tie for 5th place, they would need an Illinois sweep of Purdue *and* a sweep either way in Indiana/Michigan (along with their own sweep of Penn State). They can't pass Illinois, Nebraska or Iowa and the winner of IU/UM stays ahead of them too. 5th/6th/7th place in the regular-season doesn't get it done, regardless of RPI, correct?

Aaron Fitt

2:44

Yeah I am concerned about this... Terps have the RPI, but gosh, if they finish outside the top 5 in the league (which seems very likely, given the circumstances you lay out), will an RPI in the 30s be enough to get them in? I'd be nervous about it. I think the Terps will need to make a deep run in the Big Ten tourney. They don't NECESSARILY have to win the auto bid, but they need to make a run.

Gville

2:45

Are ECU's top 8 chances done after this past week? Are they in danger of falling out of the top 16 altogether?

Aaron Fitt

2:45

Their top-eight chances suddenly feel pretty unlikely, yeah. I still think they're fine to host as long as they don't crap the bed again this weekend.

GeoDawg

2:46

Am I crazy to still be really concerned about Mississippi States hosting chances? Currently sitting at 16 with a midweek against rpi 280 and three games against rpi 104 (all at home). I just don't see how we don't fall to 18-20. And with the hosting bubble as stout as it is, I just don't know that that gets the job done. I hope I'm wrong!

Kendall Rogers

2:46

I think MSU sweeps that series against Missouri. If the Bulldogs have 19 SEC wins (the Ole Miss midweek win counts, too), I would be surprised if they are not hosting a regional.

HoosierDaddy

2:47

Curious on your thoughts of the Big Ten and if it can get 3-4 teams in a regional? Nebraska seems like a lock. Indiana, Maryland, Illinois seem like the others. Reminds me a little bit of the Pac-12 last year where 4 teams got in with decent RPIs but a strong conference RPI.

Kendall Rogers

2:47

Feeling very good about Nebraska, obviously, and I think Illinois is in the field with a regular season championship. That leaves probably one more spot, and I'd give that to Indiana at this juncture. Maryland has the RPI, but no way the 7th place team in the Big Ten is making the field. It'll have a lot of work to do in the conference tournament.

Heel

2:49

If UNC finishes with the best ACC record, as they currently have a magic number of 1, are they a slam dunk top 8? Could the lack of Q1/Q2 wins currently be enough to offset the best ACC record? Additionally, could they climb as high as 3 or 4 in the pecking order?

Aaron Fitt

2:49

Yeah I think winning the ACC regular season (particularly if they win it by a wide margin, which now feels likely) makes them a top-eight slam dunk, regardless of Q1/Q2 wins. Sure, could see them getting into that top 3 or 4, definitely.

Greg

2:51

Absolute bloodbath of a weekend with six of the top 10 in last week's rankings losing their weekends. What teams do you see having the most at stake in the last weekend of the regular season?

Kendall Rogers

2:51

Oregon State and Arizona have a ton to play for this weekend, Wake Forest could actually get into the top eight if it wins that series win at NC State, South Carolina has no pathway to hosting with a series loss to Tennessee this weekend. Those are the main items i'm watching amongst the ranked teams later this week.

James

2:51

What should the panic level be right now for TCU? Split two games with New Mexico State and back down to 38 in RPI with a losing conference record. Will .500 in the Big 12 be good enough?

Kendall Rogers

2:51

Win the WVU series and I'm still feeling solid about the Horned Frogs. Lose the WVU series and Los and the boys will need to make some noise in Arlington to assure a bid, imo.

Pac12 Homer!

2:52

Lets talk pac12. OSU or Arizona are going to win. Oregon can actually still get 2nd. Does Xiang seeding here matter for NCAA seeding? I.e Beavs don’t even get top 2 in conf..still host? Can Ducks win the pac12 tourney and host? Arizona a lock or far off?

Aaron Fitt

2:52

I feel like Beavs would definitely take a hit if they finish 3rd -- but ultimately I still feel like the Pac will find a way to get a host, so I don't think finishing 3rd (by a slight margin) would be a disqualifier for OSU's hosting chances. Perhaps Arizona could jump OSU to get a Pac-12 hosting spot if it wins that series, even with a lower RPI. Or perhaps both of them could host. I think the conference tournament will matter a lot here. But feels like Oregon is too far back to host, regardless.

Bob

2:52

Is Texas the biggest wild card in the NCAA tournament? 12 wins vs top 25 but 8 losses against 101+. Seems like a team that could be in Omaha and also go 0-2 in a regional

Kendall Rogers

2:52

That's exactly what Texas is as a team. The Longhorns can really really hit, but I don't see that pitching staff performing at a high level on the road in a Regional. They can hit with anyone ... but can they pitch enough? We will find out sooner rather than later. They've done an incredible job considering the personnel. I wrote about that in today's Rogers Rewind.

ktown

2:54

Does a player like Caglione help get Florida in on the grounds that he is must watch TV even as the team struggles and is bubble?

Kendall Rogers

2:54

The problem with Florida is its pathway to being OVER .500 is very difficult. Win the UGA series and the pathway is a little different and obviously better, but lose two of three and UF is 27-27 going into Hoover. It would have to go 3-2 in the tourney to finish OVER .500. Pretty difficult.

Big fan

2:55

Does St. John’s have a chance at an At-large bid

Kendall Rogers

2:55

Definitely do. 51 RPI and clearly the No. 2 team in a much improved Big East.

Andrew

2:55

What does Charleston have to do to secure a spot in the field? Win the CAA tourney?

Aaron Fitt

2:55

Gosh, it really feels like Charleston has done everything it needs to do to put itself in at-large position -- they're 36-12 overall, 18-5 in the league (a half-game out of first), won the head-to-head series against Northeastern, UNCW and Campbell. Feels like a slam dunk... except that RPI remains borderline at No. 50. I hope the committee will look beyond the RPI when it comes to their season, because they deserve a bid (and indeed, the DSR has them at No. 25, which feels like a far better indication of the season CofC has had). But history tells us teams with that kind of profile, with an RPI around 50, are gonna be sweating on selection day. We'll see.

GoIrish

2:57

Quite hard to understand Oregon State ranked ahead of the Tar Heels. What is the main rationale there?

Aaron Fitt

2:57

Head-to-head results in 2006 and 07.

Nah I'm playing. It's just those four series losses for UNC, which have been staggered at such intervals that they have kinda depressed UNC's stock in the Top 25. But you're right, if you take a step back and look at the overall bodies of work, it's hard to make a case for the Beavers over UNC. But poll dynamics are a little weird here.

Aaron Fitt

2:58

Gang, I have to run -- thanks again for all the excellent questions, and see you next week!

Eric Simmons

3:03

Can Ole Miss make the regionals with a series win over LSU

Kendall Rogers

3:03

I think Ole Miss is in the field with a series win over LSU -- on the road - this weekend. I think it's that simple for the Rebels.

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