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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 15
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Kendall Rogers
2:24
I mean, not much longer ..... considering they just lost a series to Mississippi State at home. Here's the thing, I love LSU's lineup and I love Paul Skenes, but I have zero faith as of right now that pitching staff can close out a regional or super regional at this point. Could that change? Sure. But I have LSU on serious upset watch going into the postseason unless things look different the next two weekends.
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Jeremy
2:25
With UK being #1 in RPI...would 2 out of 3 against Florida lock up a regional host? Getting a national seed would require how many more wins or is that even attainable?
Kendall Rogers
2:25
Jeremy -- win that Florida series to get to 17 wins in the SEC and I think Kentucky is probably a top eight with a decent showing in Hoover. At that point, they'd probably be the top RPI team in the country with well more than 20 wins vs. RPI Top 50 teams. That's a top-eight resume IMO.
Damon
2:27
Any worry about the Wake Forest pitching depth with the recent injury to Sullivan and Minacci's struggles of late? I know they're mostly still rolling, but getting worried about them running out of steam in the postseason.
Aaron Fitt
2:27
I think they're fine. First off, it sounds like Sullivan's MRI came back clean and they are hopeful he can be back in time for the postseason, though I'd be shocked if he pitched in a meaningless series against Virginia Tech this weekend. But also the ability to just plug Seth Keener into the rotation is an incredible luxury -- he'd probably be one of the 20-25 best starters in the country if he played for another team. And I do believe in Minacci and the bullpen. I still think they have the best pitching staff in America and it's not close; not much concern from me here, although you never like to see a key arm miss time this late in the season.
West Warrior
2:28
Oh my!  It looks like the Big West could still be a 1, 2 or 3-bid conference.  What is your prediction?  
What happens if Fullerton, Santa Barbara and Irvine each sweep the final 2 weekends?
Kendall Rogers
2:28
West -- I would still have UCSB and Cal State Fullerton in, but honestly, both would be bubble teams for me. UCSB took a sizable step back against Long Beach State, and Fullerton's RPI is down to 56. As they say ... not great, Bob.
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PDXBeaver
2:30
Once again, Oregon State did “enough” to remain in conversation with hosting a regional without doing a lot more—a sweep in Los Angeles would’ve been sweet—but they make a big jump in this week’s rankings. Is this a sign of growing confidence that the path to hosting is growing wider for the Beavs, or just a recognition of the great work Canham and Co. have been doing in Corvallis these last months?
Aaron Fitt
2:30
I think it's both of those things. They're now 18-12 in the Pac-12, that is very loud. We always talk about the value of winning series, and they've won eight of their last nine, including a bunch against quality opponents -- it's just a nice body of work, and worthy of being recognized in the rankings. I kinda think the Beavers will host if they can keep that RPI in the 20s, because Pac-12 teams can get more RPI leeway for stuff like this, as they should. Going 18-12 in the Pac is a real accomplishment, especially since I think the league is pretty good this year.
Guest
2:31
Should either of the Big Ten contenders (Maryland and Indiana) still harbor any hopes of hosting if they win out the final three games and also win the conference tournament? Or are their projected RPI ceilings just too low at this point?
Kendall Rogers
2:31
The ship has sailed (it was always a long shot) for Maryland with an RPI of 49, but Indiana could get back into the discussion with a very strong finish with an RPI of 29. Let's say Indiana rolls this weekend to win the regular season title and then rolls in the conference tournament. That's the pathway.
PDXBeaver
2:32
I know I asked a similar question last week, but is there a more exciting player on the west coast than Travis Bazzana? Five hits yesterday, three of them bunts, and one of them a grand slam, to go along with slick defense and yet another steal. Guy does it all.
Aaron Fitt
2:32
One more Beav question -- I think I agree with you, the Wonder from Down Under gets my vote for most exciting player in the West!
Gator
2:34
How about that weekend from the Florida pitching staff? And they got some extra rest for Waldrep out of it! I know it's just one weekend, but against a good Vandy team, do you have a better outlook for them for their Omaha potential?
Aaron Fitt
2:34
Yeah, I wrote something to that effect on Saturday, even before seeing that gem from Caglianone on Sunday. The bullpen's emergence has really satisfied my concerns about that unit (just as the emergence of Stanford's bullpen made me feel a lot better about that team's Omaha outlook a couple weeks back). Love the way the Gators are trending. I was skeptical of them as a national title contender not very long ago, because of the pitching, but after catching a glimpse of that team at its very best this past weekend, now I can see it. They're on my short list of title front-runners.
Tyler
2:36
How much trouble is A&M in?
Kendall Rogers
2:36
Tyler -- win the Mississippi State series on the road and I think the Aggies are in with 14 SEC wins. Lose that series and they're gonna have some serious work to do in Hoover. A&M's pathway to the postseason is crystal clear at this point.
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Ray
2:37
Do you think South Carolina still has an avenue to be a national seed?
Aaron Fitt
2:37
oh for sure -- they're still No. 3 in the RPI, and at 15-11 in the SEC they're right there in the hunt. I think if they win the Tennessee series to get to 17 SEC wins, then add a couple wins in Hoover, they'll be right there in top-8 position even despite this rough patch (8 losses in their last 11 is NOT GREAT!). But that RPI still keeps them in it.
Reid
2:38
If you had to make a prediction for the Ole-Miss of this season who would it be? Meaning a team who might barely sneak in, but has the talent to get to Omaha and potentially win it all.
Kendall Rogers
2:38
Texas A&M, NC State, TCU, Texas Tech would be teams that fit that billing for me. FWIW -- I do think Ole Miss was much better than any of those current teams right now.
Ian
2:39
What does Kansas State need to do to make the tourney. Would a series win against TCU already bring us to the tourney. What seeds are possible for us to get and what would we have to do. I assume hosting would be out of the question?
Kendall Rogers
2:39
Ian -- Kansas State is still in OK shape with a 12-9 league record to go with an RPI of 48.  KSU also has head to head series wins over Oklahoma, Texas Tech and a series win over TCU would punch its ticket to the NCAA tournament, IMO.
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HardBall Fan
2:41
If Houston wins the AAC regular season title and ECU wins the AAC tournament ... does Houston make a regional?
Kendall Rogers
2:41
No shot for Houston without winning the conference tournament. Its RPI is 95 right now and there's no way imaginable to get to that 50-60 range right now.
Dawg17
2:44
Are you guys expecting Lemonis to return to MSU next year or is it still up in the air?
Kendall Rogers
2:44
I think I'm expecting Lemonis to return after they got rid of Scott Foxhall, but at this point, you never know. When Zac Selmon has yet to make a splash hire or any hire at all, you wonder if he's looking for a way to do that. We will see. I'd lean toward a Lemonis return in 2024, though.
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Ben
2:44
Is your sense that UVA, Duke, Miami, BC, Clemson, and Wake are fighting for likely 4-5 host sites at most for the ACC? How would you rank those 6, they've sort of round robin beat each other up (UVA swept miami, duke took 2 of 3 from UVA, etc.)? Could anyone else sneak in (i.e., if UNC wins the clemson series). Seems like Wake is a given, Clemson getting close, and then the other 4 could be determined this coming weekend...
Aaron Fitt
2:44
Yeah I think you're probably right here -- feels like a good bet the ACC winds up with 5 hosts, and Wake is obviously a lock. At this point, it feels Clemson is a lock too, at 17-10 with a No. 8 RPI. Virginia is suddenly back in great position at 16-11 with a No. 9 RPI, and that RPI edge plus the head-to-head sweep puts UVa ahead of Miami (No. 18 RPI, 16-11). Duke clearly hurt its cause this weekend with that home series loss to Ga Tech, but Duke, BC and Miami all feel basically neck and neck right now (whereas last week Duke was clearly ahead of all these teams except Wake). And you're right that UNC could still sneak into this mix too. A lot to play for in the final weekend and in the ACC tournament, lots of sorting still to do.
treehugger
2:45
If Missouri State takes 2/3 from Indiana State this weekend, and loses in the MVC title game, any shot at an at large?
Kendall Rogers
2:45
RPI is sitting at 67, so a very long shot -- but let's say they win the series and then at least go on a deep run in the MVC tournament. It's not impossible.
Glenn
2:46
Does UNC have the arms to make a potential Omaha run this year?
Aaron Fitt
2:46
I'm not yet convinced on that, but I will say that Carlson looking like Carlson again this weekend, and Knapp showing much better command along with legit stuff, those are very intriguing developments. Maybe it's finally coming together for this team on the mound. But I need to see more before I fully buy in on that notion.
Sherman
2:46
In terms of regional at large teams, where is the bubble line in the muddied Big 12? Who’s on the “safer” side, and who needs to go on a serious run in Arlington?
Kendall Rogers
2:46
Good question. My order of teams 'in question' in the Big 12 would be:

Kansas State (pretty safe as of right now)
Texas Tech (good side)
Oklahoma (50-50)
TCU (bad side)
Tammy
2:47
% chance Texas Longhorns could host with a sweep over WVU and OSU dropping series to OU?
Kendall Rogers
2:47
Tammy -- Sweep that series and play well in Arlington and it could be a possibility. But that's a pretty tall task to say the least.
Colby
2:49
What are the chances southern miss hosts?
Kendall Rogers
2:49
Would need to keep winning and hope the RPI follows suit. Right now, USM's RPI is sitting at 28, which is probably too low to host. With that said, playing Louisiana this weekend won't hurt the RPI, leaving USM a chance to go on a run in the conference tourney and bolster that RPI. It's a definite possibility, but not an outcome I would predict just yet.
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eglz
2:50
Is this finally the Southern Miss team that was expected going into this season?
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