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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 16
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Aaron Fitt
12:02
Hello friends, welcome back to the chat room. Down the home stretch we come -- only one more of these regular Monday chats left after this week! Time does fly. Let's dive in.
Moe
12:04
Does Charlotte have to win their conference tournament to have a realistic shot at making the Field?
Kendall Rogers
12:04
Moe -- As Aaron mentioned last week on the Pod (I believe), Charlotte has been playing really well as of late. But in terms of an at-large bid, it's too little too late at 75 in the RPI. I'd keep an eye on those guys in that C-USA tournament, though.
Guest
12:06
if Ole Miss takes 2 of 3 this weekend against Texas AM what  would be the seed projection for NCAA Tournament
Kendall Rogers
12:06
Guest -- Win that series against the Aggies and Ole Miss will go from not making the field to likely being a two seed in a matter of three weeks. The RPI is there now. Ole Miss played much better against Missouri two weekends ago, and certainly played great against LSU over the weekend. They've got that itch about them right now. Watch out.
Big12Fan
12:07
Can you handicap the Big 12 hosting scenarios for us? Tech all of the sudden looks like a host, but the RPI isn’t there. Texas has a much better RPI, but only 11-10 in the league. If Texas finishes 14-10 and only 2 games back of league champ TCU or TTU, can they snatch a host bid from one of those schools? Or can they just add a third Big 12 host?
Aaron Fitt
12:07
Yeah the Big 12 hosting picture is pretty fascinating. Both of the teams at the top of the standings, TCU and Texas Tech, are mid-30s in the RPI, which is normally not where you want to be as a host candidate, of course. But it feels like a scenario where the committee will make an exception for the Big 12 champion, we've seen that sort of thing before. OK State is still in good RPI shape at No. 12 and solid enough in the standings, so they're a host. I think I agree with your thinking that if Texas sweeps that last series to get to 14-10, it could move into hosting position too. But a lot could be decided at the conference tourney. Fun race to watch. Even Oklahoma is still in the mix.
Eagle Sam
12:08
What’s the path for USM to host? 2/3 against mtsu and win the conference tourney? Sweep mtsu and get to the tourney championship? Need outside help? Thanks.
Kendall Rogers
12:08
USM's RPI is sitting at 20. I would say win that MTSU series on the road and play well in the Conference tourney, and you're probably hosting. Louisiana Tech finished second in the league last year, didn't win the C-USA tourney, had an RPI of 23, and still hosted.
DrewMac
12:08
Hey guys! How does the Auburn-Alabama Sunday 'No Contest' affect things in Auburn's National Seed run?
Aaron Fitt
12:08
Probably not a huge impact; Auburn is still in great shape for a top-eight seed at 15-11 in the SEC and No. 4 in the RPI. If the Tigers win that last series at Kentucky, I really like their chances. Incredible turnaround for Butch Thompson and the boys on the Plains, one of the great stories of this season.
cool 2
Tim
12:10
Why not jump Virginia Tech to #2 over Oregon State,after a series win against #5 Louisville and a midweek win against a potential conference champion in Liberty?
Aaron Fitt
12:10
We did consider making that move, and I love all of Virginia Tech's high-end series wins. But ultimately Oregon State is still alone in first place in the Pac-12, which carries a lot of weight. The Hokies are still chasing Miami. So we gave OSU a bit of leeway.
tugboat
12:10
If the gamecocks take 2 of 3 in Gainesville and win 2 in Hoover, are we in?
Kendall Rogers
12:10
TUG -- that would put South Carolina at 14-16 in the league and would probably improve the RPI to well into the 50s, if not the upper 40s. I don't think it would make the Gamecocks a slam dunk by any means, but it would absolutely give them something to play for (and in striking distance) in Hoover. I'm also very intrigued to see how Mark Kingston sets up his pitching for the weekend.
Guest
12:11
Do you think Texas Tech has found its Sunday starter in Chase Hampton?
Kendall Rogers
12:11
Guest -- It certainly seems like it. Hampton has most certainly always had the talent to be that guy. I really, really liked the way the Red Raiders performed over the weekend. If I'm being honest, it was very odd that we kept them in the Top 10, but they kept winning at the right time. It was good to see that our faith in those guys finally paid off.
Pigs
12:12
Did the Hogs blow there shot at a top 8 seed this weekend?
Aaron Fitt
12:12
Not completely, but it's not looking great. That RPI is just really working against Arkansas; they're stuck at No. 29 heading into a road series at Alabama, and they're likely to remain in that neighborhood heading into Hoover. Maybe they can make a big RPI jump in Hoover, we've seen that before, but at this point I think they need get into the teens, especially if they don't win their division (currently A&M is in first due to the tie-breaker).
Brendan
12:14
Texas Tech and Arkansas have been in the Top 20 for the entire season and have really good series wins, but the RPI is not as high as you would think.  Maryland is at 11 in the RPI, higher than both of those teams.  What would the pecking order be for those three teams when it comes to regional hosting?
Aaron Fitt
12:14
This is such a fascinating question, because it really is a test of how much weight the committee is going to put on the RPI this year. Last year, we expected the committee would use the RPI less, because all the weird COVID-related scheduling stuff really made it have less meaning -- but when the dust settled it was still almost straight RPI all the way through that bracket. So if that's the case again, you'd have to think Maryland will be ahead of Arkansas and Tech. The fact that Maryland has managed to build a No. 11 RPI as a team in the Big Ten is very loud, and the Terps are also atop their league. That's just a really good body of work.
Pugs
12:15
So is Pitt still alive? Do they need to sweep Ga Tech and win 2 games in Charlotte to feel okay?
Kendall Rogers
12:15
Pugs -- the fact Pitt at least won a game over the weekend was huge moving forward. RPI is now sitting at 55 with a .500 league record. I'll say this, if Pitt wins the GT series and wins a game or two in the ACC tournament, I think it gets in ever so slightly, especially with someone like Wake slipping and Clemson in rough shape because of its league record.
cool 1
Caneaholic
12:16
With teams dropping mid week games late in the season should the committee take this into account when making selections for the 64. Maybe look at this as a forfeit loss?
Kendall Rogers
12:16
Cane -- I mean, sure, it stinks that this his happening, but are we really going to not give a team a host site because it didn't play a team with an RPI of 240 in one midweek game? Maybe we don't have a system where a team could beat that 240 team 15-1 and still drop six spots in the rankings. My solution is simple: Allow a team to drop 3-to-4 of their worst RPI teams, BUT they MUST be midweek games.
vomit 1
Will
12:19
Hey Guys, Your content has been fantastic this year. Excited for conference tournaments next week. That said, if you were a conference commissioner, and assuming your conference tournament has 12 teams, how would you format it? Bracket? Pool play? Doubled/single elimination?
Aaron Fitt
12:19
Boy this is another very good question, Will. I go back and forth on this -- I actually like pool play because it gives every team a chance to boost its postseason resumé as needed but doesn't destroy any team's pitching. I get that the "dead" games aren't the best for the fans, however. Maybe the hybrid format the SEC has gone to is the best answer, although I haven't covered that event in years so I don't have as good a feel for the rhythm of it. I can say I do really like the rhythm of the ACC tourney, but I know most fans seem to complain about the pool play format every year. Coaches like it though -- and there's a reason for that. It prepares them for the games that really matter, the week after.
Tim Carter
12:20
What’s the word on Southern Illinois with Big road wins over DBU and Evansville. Haven’t lost an MVC series
Kendall Rogers
12:20
Tim -- Really neat club. Our Patrick Ebert wrote about them a couple of weeks ago. Lance Rhoades has done a great job, and they've got two sluggers I absolutely love in Kaeber Rog and JT Weber. if they win the regular season MVC crown, that will give them a little leeway with the committee, but the RPI is still in rough shape at 69. I'll say this, though. If SIU wins the league, and then goes on a run in the conference tourney (but doesn't win it), I would absolutely hope the committee puts them in the field. They'd deserve it.
Clinton
12:22
Does Texas State have enough pitching to get to Omaha
Kendall Rogers
12:22
Clinton -- Great question. They clearly have a stud in Tristan Stivors, but I'd be lying if I said I was ultra confident in the bullpen. It seems like the Bobcats have had a lot of strenuous situations late in games this year from a pitching standpoint. I think they have enough on the front-end and they've got a stud reliever .. but the quality depth certainly needs to arise if TXST wants to win a regional.
Corbin believer
12:22
Not sure how he does it but it seems that Corbin makes a few lineup changes in May every year and has his team playing their best at just the right time.  They are playing like they believe they are going back to Omaha.....do you think they can get there?
Aaron Fitt
12:22
Yeah, he's got a knack for pulling the right lineup lever down the stretch every year -- I always felt like Paul Mainieri used to do that every year too. And I agree that they're playing really well right now, and appear to be very dangerous, peaking at the perfect time. Sure, they could absolutely make another Omaha run -- there's plenty of talent on that roster, and it all seems to be coming together.
Brandon
12:23
After Tech’s sweep of the Pokes, how are the Big 12 host scenarios looking?
Kendall Rogers
12:23
Right now, Oklahoma State would be a host, and if you projected Texas Tech to win that OU series, they'd likely win the league with an RPI in the mid 20s going into Oklahoma City. That would be put Tech is in as a Top 16 host for me.
Guest
12:24
What's a reasonable expectation for TAMU in the post-season?
Kendall Rogers
12:24
Guest -- Let's be honest, when you're No. 6 in the country, Omaha is the expectation. Obviously, I love what the Aggies have from an offensive standpoint. That's such a dangerous lineup. But some pieces definitely need to emerge from a pitching standpoint. Nathan Dettmer/Jacob Palisch/Moo Menefee can't do it all. Micah Dallas is the one guy in particular who really needs to step up down the stretch.
cool 1
Russ
12:25
What do you think La-Tech needs to do to make a regional?
Aaron Fitt
12:25
The Bulldogs definitely have to win that last series at Charlotte, that kinda goes without saying, given their No. 54 RPI. That's really not a great RPI spot for a mid-major team that isn't going to win its conference regular-season title. Would like to see that RPI get inside the top 45 by selection Monday to feel better about their chances, but finishing in second would carry some weight, so they'd at least have a shot if they're around No. 50.
Guest
12:27
Now down to 44th in RPI, what does Mercer need to do this week to feel good about getting an at large bid going into the socon tournament?At this point do we need to win our conference tournament to get in?
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