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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 16
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Aaron Fitt
12:27
Yeah, the Bears are definitely trending the wrong way. No. 45 in the RPI, 3-4 against the top 50, just 11-7 in the SoCon -- those metrics probably don't add up to an at-large bid. If they sweep Samford to finish 14-7 in the league, that would help some, and would keep them inside the top 45 in the RPI heading into the SoCon tourney, according to the RPI Needs Report. I think they'd probably still need to make a nice run in the SoCon tourney, but they'd at least have a shot at an at-large.
Terp in NC
12:29
If Maryland gets to host a Regional, will the games be at a temporarily refurbished Bob Smith stadium or at a local minor league ballpark?
BTW: Maryland really ought to spend more on its baseball facilities. SMH.
Kendall Rogers
12:29
Terp -- There are no options for ballparks in the DC area/metroplex that weekend, so Bob Smith it is. My understanding is that Maryland is going to pull out all the stops to make it work, but it's still embarrassing for the administration that this is even an issue right now. They will need to make a strong strong commitment moving forward or someone will snatch Rob Vaughn pretty fast. He's done an incredible job this season.
Spencer
12:30
Based off of the projected field fo 64, what are a few non national seeded teams that you all feel have the best shot to reach Omaha?
Kendall Rogers
12:30
I still keep thinking to keep an eye on Oklahoma. The Sooners have been playing really, really well, and I think they have enough quality pitching depth to win a regional, and certainly a super. The Sooners have also been much improved offensively as they've gotten more immersed in Reggie Willits' system. Peyton Graham/Jimmy Crooks/Blake Robertson are all really good. Scary club.
Brendan Bell
12:34
I think it’s clear that the over- emphasis on RPI is lending itself to many unintended consequences at the moment.  Instead of changing the formulas of the metric, is the best solution simply for the committee to take more of a wholistic approach to a team’s resume than it appears they do now?
Aaron Fitt
12:34
Yes, yes, and yes. I am hopeful that all these cancelations will force the committee to take a step back and re-evaluate its process, because the absurdity of it all has now been laid bare for all to see. If a team is having a great season and has a top-16 RPI, but it will drop 10 spots just by playing a midweek game against an opponent with a 7-40 record or something, why wouldn't that team try to avoid playing that game? Playing that game (and cruising to a win, let's say) doesn't mean the team has had a worse season; but the RPI would have you believe the opposite. That's messed up. I don't know what the answer is, but there are plenty of potential solutions out there. Maybe it's time to look at Boyd's ISR? Maybe we use some version of the Fitt Rule, where a certain amount of a team's worst RPI games don't count against it -- whether that's 3 games or 4 games or 5, whatever. We should be judging teams more on the top of their resumés, not the bottom.
Sad Bulldog
12:34
Mississippi State is uh...well, they're not good.  With UT coming to town next week, they could looking at an 0-11 conference slide to end the year and a dead last finish in the SEC.  One of the ugliest 'first to worst' stories of the century.  It sounds crazy, but is Chris Lemonis on the hot seat after this year mercifully ends?  Give me some encouragement that next year might right the ship.
Kendall Rogers
12:34
Sad -- No way, the guy just won a national championship less than a year ago. Clearly, it was a weird year for the Bulldogs, but they are recruiting at a pretty high level and will certainly hit the transfer portal pretty hard.
Alex from Atascocita
12:37
How about them Pirates? 10 wins in row, clinched AAC regular season title for 3rd straight season (excluding 2020 for Covid), RPI up to 32 (was in the 70s not to terribly long ago), etc. Is Cliff Godwin the AAC coach of the year again? This has probably been his best coaching year yet with the loss of players via draft, Whisenhunt suspension, Kuchmaner for 3 weekends and counting, struggling Moylan all season, etc. Not to mention a 1st year pitching coach.
Aaron Fitt
12:37
Yeah for sure, I think Cliff is a no-doubter for that award -- this is one of his best coaching jobs, I think. For a while it really looked like ECU was just gonna be stuck in that pack with the rest of the AAC, everybody battling for position from game to game, and then ECU just separated itself. You accurately listed some of the circumstances they've had to overcome; it's awfully impressive.
Heel
12:38
Would 1 win over FSU be enough for UNC to get in the tournament? Perhaps would have some work to do in Charlotte
Aaron Fitt
12:38
I'd say two wins against FSU would get them in, one win against FSU would put them squarely on the bubble, needing at least a win or two in Charlotte. A 13-17 ACC team can get in, but the track record there isn't as great as it is for a 13-17 SEC team. But if they can get to 14-16, with three straight series wins to end the year, they're golden.
cool 1
JT
12:43
Crazy how one player can bring a team back to life. Southern Miss needed Reece Ewing back and this weekend they looked dangerous on offense again with him returning from injury. Thoughts?
Aaron Fitt
12:43
He's definitely one of those invaluable veteran glue guys (in addition to being, you know, the 3-hole hitter), and not having him clearly hurt. I still really like all the veterans in that lineup. I remain on board with Southern Miss as an Omaha team, and this weekend provided some encouraging reinforcement in that conviction.
Yellmk from the LDC
12:46
Well, my question got cutoff. It was, how does the committee view co-champs and what would they consider if you (for eg) "won" the conference as a co-champ but lost the series to the other champ. Thanks
Aaron Fitt
12:46
I think the head-to-head result does and should still matter, even if a conference officially declares co-champs instead of giving the tie-breaker to the team that won the head-to-head. So in this case, if TCU and Texas Tech end up tied atop the Big 12 standings, TCU's head-to-head sweep of Tech will and should matter to the committee. Somebody's got to be the 1-seed in the conference tourney, whether you want to declare co-champions or not. (Side note: I think co-champs are silly.)
LittleoO
12:48
Where does Texas State fit in the field of 64?
Kendall Rogers
12:48
Little -- I could see a scenario where if the Bobcats finished strong this weekend and rolled through the conference tournament, they would host. Hell, at that point, it would be a better resume than someone like Louisiana Tech last season, IMO.
jsegal8853
12:48
Is there a better college baseball player than Enrique Bradfield Jr. or one who is more valuable to his team? Has there been a college player in recent memory like him...the baserunning, the defense, hitting for average and even some power this year.
Aaron Fitt
12:48
He is truly a joy to watch. He's now 40-for-40 in stolen bases -- are you kidding me? 87-for-93 in this two-year career... that is just bonkers. His speed just has such a huge impact on the game in so many different ways, and as you pointed out, he's even showing some pop this year, with seven homers. What a ballplayer.
PhillySJB
12:49
If Arizona wins series in Oregon, can they get a regional host spot?
Kendall Rogers
12:49
Philly -- Unlikely Arizona can get there in the regular season, but win the final series AND go on a run in the Pac 12 tournament? It could definitely happen in that scenario, but the 'Cats would need some help.
Guest
12:51
Where are the realistic chances Maryland hosts at? Assuming  in the NC area? Or would they choose a more northern site?
Kendall Rogers
12:51
Maryland is in pretty dang good shape right now with a Top 10 RPI. Assuming it takes care of business against Purdue and does OK in the Big Ten tournament, I think the Terps are a lock to host. We'll see how things shake out, though. The RPI, as it has shown the last two weeks, can take a turn for the wild pretty quick.
Fangs
12:51
i understand the likelihood of this, but if Ole Miss swept this weekend to get to 16-14 (17-14 if you count the governors cup win) could they host with a solid a Hoover run? They did exactly that in 2019, and we’ve seen plenty of 16–14 sec teams host before. Again, very low odds they sweep but just curious
Kendall Rogers
12:51
In that scenario, it's definitely possible, but I think there are too many contenders at this point (already ahead of Ole Miss), who would trump anything the Rebels could do at this point.
Phillip
12:52
What does Clemson have to do to make it into the Field of 64?
Aaron Fitt
12:52
I think if they can sweep BC to get to 13-16 in the ACC heading into the conference tourney, they've got a real shot. They'd need to go at least 1-1 in pool play, and I'd feel better if they could win two games in Charlotte. That No. 22 RPI is certainly helpful, but I don't see them getting in if they finish 12-17 in the ACC, so a sweep of BC is crucial. And considering BC is 5-22 in the league, it should be doable.
mvcmike
12:53
Dallas Baptist has an RPI of 6, has a great out of conference resume, yet sits in 3rd place in the MVC. Shouldn't this ensure the MVC is a multi-bid league?  One of SIU or Evansville should be in as well. Agree?
Kendall Rogers
12:53
MVC -- Great question. I would love to see SIU make it if the season ended today, but I just know from experience teams with those RPIs often struggle to get in.
PostSeasonBaseball
12:53
No question, just a comment. Man what a bummer of a weekend for the Ragin Cajuns.
Aaron Fitt
12:53
Yeah, I thought the Cajuns were playing well and had a chance to into San Marcos and take that series. Not to be. Getting swept was a really big blow to their at-large hopes, obviously.
Wayne Young
12:55
Oregon State is having a marvelous season, but reverted to their “can’t stop anybody from scoring on Sunday” mode at Arizona. Is that just baseball, or was something else going on?
Aaron Fitt
12:55
Arizona is a good offensive team, Hi Corbett is an offensive yard, especially during the day time, and Pfennigs wasn't sharp the way he was a week earlier. I wouldn't read too much into it.
Gonzaga Fan
12:55
How much pull does the conference tournament have in the committee's eyes with a team like Gonzaga? Gonzaga is on the cusp of hosting, with 4 big regular season games left. If they take care of business against Oregon and San Diego, does their performance in the WCC tournament necessarily matter? Thanks!
Kendall Rogers
12:55
Gonz -- It would matter depending on who you lost to. For instance, if you lost a game or two there and your RPI dropped into the 30s, it's unlikely you're going to host.
The Best Team in SC
12:56
What do you guys think of the upcoming SBC tourney?  Chance of 4 teams getting a bid if TxSt/CCU/GaSo don't win it?
Kendall Rogers
12:56
Actually, I think you're right, as we stand today, if that scenario played out, four teams would make the field. G-So and TXST are locks at this point, while Coastal is one of the hottest teams in the country. I'd keep an eye on someone like South Al in that conference tournament. They've been a little up and down this year, but there's talent on that roster.
HOKIE #03
12:58
Curious about Regional Pairings.....If you are the National #1 seed - Let's just say Tennessee....help me understand who they face....  Does the 4th best 2 seed go into their region....the 4th best 3 seed, the 4th best 4 seed...  How does that work?
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