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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 2
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Aaron Fitt
12:25
Wow, great observation here -- Vandy, Mississippi State, NC State and now Texas are all outside the Top 25. This season is topsy turvy as hell.
Brendan
12:26
Texas' Tristin Stevens has lost 5 of his last 6 starts in the weekend rotation.  With Lucas Gordon really rolling, does Texas move him up in the rotation or does that not usually happen?  What does Texas' tailspin mean for their national seed hopes at this point?
Kendall Rogers
12:26
Brendan -- I think you keep rolling with Tristan in that Saturday role and see if he can figure it out. The fact of the matter is that team isn't doing anything in the postseason if Stevens isn't throwing well, so you might as well stay status quo and see if he can work out the kinks. I tend to think he will .... but who knows at this point?
Guest
12:28
Can Georgia Tech be a regional host? What is the highest seed you could see them getting?
Aaron Fitt
12:28
Sure they can -- heck, we had them as a host just a week or two ago, based on all their high-end wins. They still are tied for most top 25 RPI wins in the country (11). They just need to finish with a winning record in the ACC, and currently they're at .500, with two road series left at Clemson, at Pitt. Go 4-2 in those two series and I think they host.
Guest
12:31
The Pokes seem to be almost a lock to host now, but other than them, do you see any other Big 12 team hosting?
Kendall Rogers
12:31
Guest -- Pokes are in pretty good shape. TCU could back into the mix, too, but that record vs. RPI Top 50 is pretty problematic for me, along with the 31 RPI. TCU would probably need to win the regular season title at this point to have a chance to host. Texas could get back into the discussion by sweeping WVU and Kansas (or winning the WVU series, sweeping KU and playing very well in Oklahoma City). But right now, those two teams are well beyond Oklahoma State for me.
Matt
12:32
What’s UConn gotta do to get some respect?
Kendall Rogers
12:32
Matt -- Connecticut is ranked in our Top 15 because we believe in the Huskies. With that said, the Huskies, from an RPI standpoint, have played an atrocious schedule thanks to a terrible Big East Conference this year. I would say a Top 15 ranking is pretty sufficient respect at this point, if I'm being honest.
Spencer
12:32
With a sweep of Alabama putting the gamecocks at 9-12 in SEC play, would a 6-3 finish to conference play put them in position to make a regional? Also, what are your thoughts on Noah Hall. He has really been pitching well since SEC play has begun has he cemented himself as a top end starter at this point?
Aaron Fitt
12:32
Give South Carolina a lot of credit for fighting through this challenging season, feels like pretty much everybody has written them off multiple times and they just keep scrapping and clawing. They're still a long shot at No. 64 in the RPI, 22-20 overall and 9-12 in the SEC... but given your hypothetical, would a 6-3 finish get them in? That would get them to 15-15 in the SEC, which usually puts an SEC team in pretty good shape. They'd just need to make a big jump in the RPI, and two of those last series being on the road (at A&M and at Florida) would definitely help in that regard. It would probably be close. And good call on Noah Hall, he's been a key addition to that team as a transfer from App State.
Screaming Eagle
12:32
With Air Force sweeping UNLV, is the Mountain West going to come down to who ever wins that tourney?
Kendall Rogers
12:32
Sure will. Nevada has an RPI of 58, but the Wolf Pack's resume is pretty weak overall. I just don't see that being an at-large worthy resume at this point. Will come down to the league tourney. The biggest surprise to me in that league is the fact SDSU is dead last.
Brandon
12:33
Is there anyone in the Big 12, outside of the Pokes, who you guys have any sort of postseason confidence in?
Kendall Rogers
12:33
Brandon -- TCU and Texas on a given weekend. TCU plays excellent one weekend and really struggles the next. It just needs to be more consistent. I'm starting to lose some serious faith in Texas, though. They've shown A LOT of holes as of late.
foozly
12:36
The rhetoric all year around Arkansas (mostly from their fans) has been that this season has been disappointing and lackluster. However, they have remained in the Top 10 all year and been one of the most consistent teams outside of Tenn and both OSU's. Is this team getting too much benefit of the doubt or are they a legit contender to win it all? Also, outside of Tennessee who has the best chance to dogpile in Omaha?
Aaron Fitt
12:36
Yeah, if Arkansas fans are disappointed by this team, then I don't know what to tell them -- the Hogs have been a top five team all year, they lead their division by two games. They are having a great season. And I still believe that club has not reached its full potential yet; the offense has had its moments, certainly, but I still think there's another gear yet to come, just can't shake that feeling. Yes, I think Arkansas is a legit national title contender, on the short list of top contenders behind Tennessee. My preseason title pick, Oklahoma State, would probably still be my answer to your last question, though.
NashvilleDore
12:38
Like Vanderbilt, Florida has been disappointing this year.  How are y'all feeling about them?  Chances they miss the tourney altogether?
Kendall Rogers
12:38
Nashville -- I watched a couple of the Vandy games over the weekend, and I couldn't quite put my finger on this team. I just feel like the offense was pretty much sitting around waiting for guys like Enrique Bradfield and Dom Keegan to do everything. Maybe that's not how it has necessarily been, but that's what it felt like to me. Also, I thought Patrick Reilly showed outstanding staff. I'd have him in the rotation moving forward, IMO. I still wouldn't want Vandy in my regional, but pretty underwhelming team right now.
Spencer
12:39
With Maryland moving up to 18 this week in the rankings, do you see them as a potentially pushing for a top 16 seed and hosting a regional? Also, how to you feel their duo of Ramsey and Savacool match up with other top rotations in the country?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
Yeah, we talked about Maryland as a viable host candidate in last week's NerdCast, and the Terps just keep on winning. Their RPI is a little short of typical hosting range right now (32), but Big Ten teams should and often do receive more RPI leeway when it comes to things like this, so maybe they've got a shot if they can finish in the 20s. Ramsey and Savacool have been nails all year, and I'd happily go to war behind those guys against just about anybody. And it was encouraging to see Nick Dean throw five innings of one-hit ball on Sunday; when he's going strong also, that rotation is one of the best in the country.
RPAyeayeaye
12:40
Committee really gonna lean heavily on RPI again, despite DBU being #6 having lost three straight Valley series, and Vandy being #9 and Florida #19 despite sitting sub-.500 in the league? I get that the Gators get some credit for playing more Top 50 games than, say, the Hogs, but going 8-15 in those games doesn’t make it seem like you’re an upper-echelon team.
Aaron Fitt
12:40
I would agree with you, and the fact that there are several teams like that stuffed way up the RPI but really lacking in all the other metrics leads me to believe this will not be one of those straight-RPI years from the committee.
Grant
12:41
Besides Oklahoma State, the Sooners have the best chance of hosting a regional from the Big 12. Am I crazy? Huge series obviously coming with TCU
Kendall Rogers
12:41
Grant -- good call. If Oklahoma somehow won its final three series over TCU-WVU-Tech, the Sooners would obviously have a very strong case to host. That'd be an insane finish. I don't expect them to win all three of those. With that said, it was good to see Cade Horton back and up to 97 mph over the weekend. Oklahoma's offense has been very impressive as of late (you can see Reggie Willits' fingerprints all over that unit), and it has plenty of depth to make a deep postseason run. Don't forget that OU was my Omaha Sleeper :)
CuriousinKY
12:42
In just a week, Louisville has gone from the outside looking in as a host, to a highly probable as they sit alone atop the ACC Atlantic and have boosted RPI to 21.  However, with an incredibly tough 3 weeks remaining against high RPI teams (@ #9 Vandy, and series @ #28 Wake Forest, @ #5 Va Tech, vs #20 Virginia), how do the Cards need to finish to lock up a host?
Aaron Fitt
12:42
Boy oh boy, that is a tough stretch. But that will continue to help Louisville in the RPI; the RPI Needs Report at Boyd's World says the Cards can finish in the top 16 if they win just six or seven of their final 12 games. My feeling is, win two of those three series and they're a lock to host.
Captain Crunch
12:45
Is the American Athletic Conference going to be a 1 Bid League?
Kendall Rogers
12:45
Cap -- As of right now, it certainly looks like that will be the case. But keep an eye on Houston -- the Cougars are up to 76 in the RPI (still a long way to go) and are just one game out of first place. I would throw Tulane still in the mix, too.
Alex from Atascocita
12:45
The AAC, with 3 weekends of conference play to go, still is up for grabs. ECU has a 1 game lead over Houston and UCF (although it is effectively a 2 game lead due to ECU's sweep over UCF) and Tulane is now 2 back. Do you see ECU holding on to 1st (final weekend of season ECU hosts Houston)? If ECU can win regular season title but NOT the tournament title, can they get in?
Aaron Fitt
12:45
Yeah, tight race this year. In a normal year, the AAC regular-season champion feels like a lock at-large team, but this year I'm not so sure; ECU is just No. 52 in the RPI, and if they finish outside the top 50, even a regular-season title might not get them in. Houston is 76 and UCF is 97, so those teams are even less likely to get at-large spots if they can finish atop the standings. Just an odd year for the American. A down year.
GoWVU
12:48
10 games left, all against top 100 opponents, 7 at home, but the rotation is reeling…could West Virginia hang on for an at-large bid with a 5-5 finish or do they need more before B12 tourney?
Aaron Fitt
12:48
I think 5-5 would get them in, particularly given the quality of the competition remaining. WVU is in good shape at 9-6 in the league, so going 5-4 in those last three conference weekends would get them to 14-10 and keep their RPI in good shape for a bid.
Tony Hopson
12:49
What is the likelihood of 3 “mid-majors” hosting regionals this year? Also, can Southern Miss really afford to lose two more games if they want to be a National seed due to CUSA RPI?
Kendall Rogers
12:49
Good question. USM is obviously still in great shape, while Georgia Southern is starting to tread a little water in the Sun Belt standings (the RPI is still there). Gonzaga was a big loser over the past week, dropping down to 27 in the RPI. They will need a very strong May to host.
Miami fred
12:49
If the canes split their next 2 series against fsu away and notre dame home will they be in good position to be a top 8 host.
Aaron Fitt
12:49
I think so, given their position at the top of the standings. A 3-3 finish in those last two series would get them to 20-10, and I would imagine make them the ACC regular-season champ. That should be enough for a top eight.
Jack
12:52
Sent last question too early. Auburn seems to be raked behind some teams with similar records, but AU has higher RPI at 3. What was the thought process of them not moving up after taking one from Tennessee?
Kendall Rogers
12:52
Jack -- we actually talked about moving Auburn up after losing a series, but this isn't football and it's not about one game -- it's about what you did in a weekend series. Auburn definitely has an argument against someone like A&M, but I'd argue the Aggies have a 'slightly' better overall resume. I love what I saw from Auburn over the weekend. Bobby Peirce was terrific and dialed in, and I thought Joe Gonzalez pitched his tail off on Sunday.
Alex
12:53
Virginia Tech pitching seems to have improved quite a bit over the last few weeks, getting big innings from Green and Hackenberg on Fridays and Saturdays. The bullpen seems to be finding themselves as well. There's no question they can hit, but do you all think they have the arms to compete deep into June?
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