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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 22
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Kendall Rogers
12:29
Guest -- The Pirates have some pretty iffy metrics, but if they won the conference regular season AND tournament, and were ranked high in the human polls, I think it would be very difficult not to have them as a Top 16 host. Would look a little odd for the committee.
Matt
12:30
Does NC State have to win the ACC tournament to make a regional?
Aaron Fitt
12:30
Nah, they're in better shape than that, thanks to that No. 26 RPI. At least they got to 13 ACC wins, which feels like the minimum threshold for ACC teams to have a realistic shot. The bubble feels softer than ever right now, so NC State should stand a decent shot if it can win two games, and is probably safe with 3 wins.
Clemson Cat
12:31
Did you see where ACC announced all attendees' at the ACC Tournament have to wear HazMat suits when Clemson plays because they're radioactively hot? How high or low is the range for Clemson as a hosting seed? If they go 2 and BBQ are they out of the Top-8? If they go 4-0 and lift the trophy are they Top-2 or 3?
Aaron Fitt
12:31
I did see that, and I applaud the ACC for looking out for the welfare of the other student-athletes. Seriously, Clemson is nuclear right now, what a run. I think they're a safe top eight even with an 0-2 in Durham, and I could see them climbing to 3 or 4 with a deep run.
cool 1
The Fellas
12:32
Oral Roberts is on a roll. Do you think they have the chance to be a 2 or 3 seed in the regional or are they stuck as the 4 because of the terrible conference they are in? Also, why are they not in the Top 25 this week?
Kendall Rogers
12:32
ORU is a damn good club .... that play by Jonah Cox over the weekend was one of the best I've seen this season. With that said, RPI is sitting at 77. Maybe ORU can become a three seed by rolling through the conference tournament? Unlikely, though.
Jay
12:33
Can you assess what ND must do in the ACC tournament to feel decent about their NCAA chances?  Is beating Wake a must?
Aaron Fitt
12:33
Going 2-0 in pool play with a win over the Deacs would sew up a bid, but I think 1-1 with a loss to Wake would still give them a decent shot, given the current state of the bubble. But they are in a precarious spot as an ACC team with a No. 47 RPI, that is not comfort zone for an ACC bubble team. But they should get an RPI boost just by playing Wake, even if they lose, so that's helpful.
Eric Simmons
12:34
Is it Pac 12 Tournament Title or bust for UCLA as far as their NCAA Tournament hopes?
Aaron Fitt
12:34
Yep. 12-16-1 in the Pac, No. 62 RPI -- there's no path to an at-large bid for them.
Jack
12:34
Do you think teams like Oregon State or BC could benefit from committee trying to spread out hosting sites (especially with the glut of southeast teams this year from SEC/ACC)?
Kendall Rogers
12:34
Absolutely. Ideally, I'd like to have Oregon State as a host, but the committee -- in recent years -- has really held strong on the RPI as a tool for selecting hosts. No one with an RPI higher than 24 has ever hosted a regional in the Top 16 era. Remember, the basis for regionals these days is not supposed to consider 'geography', but more so the best teams. Ironically enough, I think OSU is a better team than at least two of those three Big 12 teams in the mix.
Andrew Miller
12:36
Is Campbell still in the hosting picture and if it came down to ECU or Campbell who would you have in as a host.
Aaron Fitt
12:36
Yes, Campbell is certainly still in the mix, and clearly ahead of ECU based on the 3-0 head-to-head record. Campbell also has a better top 50 record (5-4) than these other mid-major host candidates we've been talking about, like Indiana State (2-9), DBU (2-7) and UConn (1-2). I'd feel better about the Camels if they hadn't lost that final series, but you can make a case they should still be ahead of those other mid-major host candidates despite a lower RPI (No. 25) because of the top 50 record. And at least they still won the regular-season conference title, which is always key for one of these types of teams. If I'm betting, I would not bet on any of these teams hosting, but they're all still in the mix.
Eric Simmons
12:36
What does UTSA need to do to get an at large bid? I think get to the Conference USA Championship Game
Kendall Rogers
12:36
Eric -- Probably need to win the whole tournament to get in, but getting to the conference title game might move the RPI in the mid-50s, which would at least give Pat Hallmark's club a chance. They don't have a chance right now with an RPI in the 60s.
GoBeavs
12:37
The RPI seems to always be open for debate on its value. Why is so much weight put onto it and should there be a different metric used or at least added into the post-season decisions?
Aaron Fitt
12:37
The RPI carries so much weight because the committee has never bothered to look for a better system. They should, but they haven't -- so until they do, we're stuck using it as a key tool in our analysis as well.
Paul
12:38
Any thoughts on Dan McDonnell going to Alabama?
Kendall Rogers
12:38
Paul,
I do think Dan McDonnell is open to leaving Louisville this go-round.... but I also am pretty good at reading the tea leaves on coaching moves, and the fact that Dan so emphatically mentioned facilities upgrades, etc, in his press conference the other day tells me that he's wanting to feel the love facilities wise. With that said, should Louisville not provide guarantees for that, I 100% could see him moving on.
Jon
12:39
If you could pick only one and they were in the same draft class, would you prefer Wyatt Langford or Jac Caglianone?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
That's a great question, because I think Langford is an absolute can't-miss bat, whereas Cags is more pitchable but has enormous upside as both a hitter and a pitcher. The legitimate MLB two-way potential is so enticing, but I think Langford is a perennial all-star bat you can build a lineup around, with a safer floor. I suppose I'd take Langford if I HAD to pick, but that's tough!
john
12:40
If South Carolina does not host, do they go to coastal or clemson regional?
Aaron Fitt
12:40
Depends how frisky the committee is feeling! My guess is probably Coastal but could go either way.
Mike
12:41
Oregon State is in an interesting position. 2nd in the Pac-12, but an RPI right around 30. The Beavs start off with games against UA and ASU.  In the past, the committee used to take geographic considerations into assigning hosts (leniency for West Coast schools to allow multiple hosts). Now that the committee has moved to a purely Top 16 teams regional assignment, what do the Beavs need to do in the Pac-12 tournament to feel comfortable hosting?
Kendall Rogers
12:41
If the Beavers win those two games, they should 100% be a host no matter what they do the rest of the way in the tournament. I will be beating that drum in that scenario.
Greg
12:42
A month ago, I thought Dylan Crews was a lock for the Golden Spikes. Not the case anymore. Who do you have as the national player of the year now?
Kendall Rogers
12:42
A man named Paul Skenes. In a year when pitching is down across the board, he's been by far the best pitcher in college baseball. He's the guy for that trophy right now IMO.
Aaron Fitt
12:42
I think I agree with KR on this one.
Mufasa
12:42
How in the world does Southeastern Louisiana fire Matt Riser? Guy has put the program on the map. 4 regionals and 3 conference championships in 10 years in Hammond Louisiana! Where do you see Riser ending up at? He’s a great man and coach.
Aaron Fitt
12:42
I actually agree with you and differ a bit from Kendall's take on this one. They had a rotten year, but I think what he's done there is impressive, and I think he's a dynamic personality who was a great fit there. I would not have fired him if I were the AD, personally, but I do get it.
Brendan
12:43
why with a RPI in the mid 40s is Maryland firmly a 2 seed and not closer to the bubble?
Aaron Fitt
12:43
The fact that Maryland has won 11 straight series and took the Big Ten regular-season crown should make them a slam-dunk regional team, RPI be damned.
B
12:44
LMU dominated the WCC in a way I haven't seen in almost a decade.. do they have a chance for an at-large w/o winning the tournament title?
Kendall Rogers
12:44
No shot to make it as an at-large team. That league is brutally bad from an RPI standpoint with just one team (Santa Clara 93) with an RPI inside 100. LMU is 102, but I do think it would be a crazy dangerous No. 4 seed with Diego Barrera on the mound. He's very, very good, and such a unique look.
Brad
12:45
What does Coastal need to do to host and possibly get a national seed. Friday and Saturday starting pitching was hurt, but they hopefully are back and during the process they found some young arms. Great coaching job by coach Gilmore. What percentage do you have for them to get out of Regional? Thx for ur coverage.
Aaron Fitt
12:45
Yeah, incredible coaching job by Gilley and his staff, they did an amazing job holding it all together despite some key injuries. I think this team is very, very likely to host, even with a winless showing in the conference tournament. And if they host, I do like their chances to win a regional at home -- that's a scary offense that is well suited to its home ballpark. Of course, South Carolina's offense is also a great fit for that ballpark, so if that's the 2-seed, it could be interesting.
SDSouthpaw
12:46
What can you say about the job coach Newman has done at UCSD this year?  When was the last time a post-season ineligible team won its conference?
Aaron Fitt
12:46
He's a stud, and that's a program to buy stock in as it completes its Division I transition -- feels like the Tritons are going to be an annual factor in that race, up there in the UCSB tier. Most recently, I believe Cal Baptist won the WAC before being postseason eligible not too long ago.
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