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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 24
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Austin
12:32
Though it can't host, what does NC State need to do this week to earn a No. 1 seed? If it does get a No. 1, would the committee at least try to keep them closer to home, such as at Charlotte or S. Carolina hosting as the No. 2?
Aaron Fitt
12:32
I think NC State as the 1 seed in a Charlotte regional is a very realistic possibility, especially if the Wolfpack makes a run to Sunday in Charlotte. Going 19-14 in the ACC in the regular season, with strong momentum down the stretch -- feels like NC State could wind up as the clear-cut No. 2 team in the ACC pecking order, and could be a worthy No. 1 seed in a regional if it keeps on winning this week.
.
12:32
Thoughts on Nebraska potentially getting a one seed?
Kendall Rogers
12:32
I don't think the Huskers get a one seed at the point. I think if you see someone traveling as a one-seed, it would be someone like NC State should it roll through the ACC tournament. Nebraska, for me, will be a two-seed, and an incredibly difficult two-seed to face. My hope is that the Huskers get sent to one of the 'easier' regionals.
Jonathon
12:36
How likely is it that Tadlock will be the next A&M coach? What else besides being an alumni keeps him at Tech?
Kendall Rogers
12:36
A&M definitely has a shot to get Tadlock, but it won't be an easy pull. Tadlock is an alum, but Tech has been slow with some facilities additions at times, and the recruiting game living out in Lubbock can wear some guys/coaches out. The recruiting game is much easier at a place like College Station, and the SEC is certainly a draw. It's too early for me to put a percentage on it, but I think A&M has a pretty decent shot on this one.
Andrew
12:39
It feels sacrilegious to ask, but does Florida have a pitching development problem? The Gators haven't really had a stereotypical miles deep Kevin O'Sullivan bullpen since 2015, and UF has struggled to reload the starting staff since the Faedo-Singer-Kowar trio moved on. Tommy Mace has never really lived up to his billing or his stuff, Jack Leftwich is now a reliever and the Gators spent multiple weeks in the SEC starting Franco Aleman on Friday nights. And their last full season, 2019, the pitching was genuinely terrible. Has something gone awry in the Gainesville pitching factory?
Aaron Fitt
12:39
It does feel sacrilegious, but you make some good points. I definitely wouldn't go so far as to say Florida has a pitching development problem -- but it is fair to say that some of their high-profile arms have not developed as hoped in the recent wave. Nobody has a 100 percent success rate, and this feels more like a minor bump in the road for the Florida developmental machine than any kind of bigger issue. (Now watch as Mace, Leftwich and Aleman stick it in our faces in June and carry this team deep into the postseason...)
TedD
12:43
After an abbreviated but underwhelming 2020, Stanford has been outstanding this year, including the series win at Oregon (after a heartbreaking first game).  With Dixon and Palisch stepping up, their pitching depth is looking better than a month ago. How far can they go this year?
Aaron Fitt
12:43
Yeah you're right Ted, the pitching really has come together, as our man Shotgun Spratling detailed in his reports from Eugene this weekend. I have become a believer in this Stanford team -- I don't see any reason this team can't make an Omaha run, as the quintessential under-the-radar West team that everyone overlooks when they fill out their brackets, even though it's going to be a host and maybe a top-eight seed. It's just not as sexy a club as some of the high-profile SEC and Big 12 powers, but every year it seems some West Coast team like this Stanford club take down SEC or Big 12 or ACC heavyweights in June. I actually like the fact that this group of Stanford veterans has experienced both success and failure in their careers, and I have a feeling they'll play very well in June.
scribbler
12:45
Is it fair to say that after Arkansas, you could make a case for any of Vandy, Texas, Mississippi State, Arizona, or Tennessee to be No. 2? There does not appear to be much separation between the resumes of those five teams.
Aaron Fitt
12:45
Yes, I do think that's fair, actually. Personally, I kinda like the conference champions (Texas in particular, and Arizona in the discussion) over the next cut of SEC teams, but Mark and Kendall see it differently -- which I think means the committee could really go in any direction with that group of teams.
Brian
12:46
What does UConn need to do to get to the two seed line?
Aaron Fitt
12:46
I'd have UConn on that 2-seed line right now, and if they win a couple games in the conference tournament then I think they waltz in as a 2. Don't even have to win the Big East tourney, in my mind.
Wreck’em
12:49
Does it seem like there is more riding on conference tournaments than years past? Seems like there is a lot of intrigue in Big 12 and ACC and maybe for the bubble teams of the SEC
Aaron Fitt
12:49
I suppose it's the same every year, there's always a lot of intrigue in this final week. But you're right, the Big 12 tourney will have a huge bearing on the top-eight race, and the ACC tourney will have an enormous impact on the at-large bubble (but likely won't impact the national seed and host races). In the SEC, the top five teams feel pretty much locked in as hosts (and four of them as national seeds), and Florida feels like a very strong bet to host, but South Carolina could play its way past the Gators in Hoover -- or perhaps they could both wind up as hosts. And then of course you have the play-in teams fighting for their at-large lives. Plenty on the line.
wayne
12:51
What does ole miss have to do to get a national seed ? Do they have to win the S.E.C. Tournament? I believe they have the 4th best quad 1 record in college baseball.
Aaron Fitt
12:51
I don't think they necessarily have to win the SEC tournament, but I do think it's clear right now that Ole Miss is fifth in the SEC pecking order, so they'd have to do something in Hoover that makes their body of work look more impressive than Mississippi State's or Tennessee's, two teams that finished two games ahead of the Rebels in the standings. Could reaching the SEC title game do it, combined with MSU or Tennessee going winless in Hoover? Maybe so.
SECbaseball
12:53
Can a deep run in Hoover have Mississippi State jump any of those national seeds in front of them or are those teams pretty locked in? Similarly, can a big week sneak OM into that #8 seed, or too many teams in front on them?
Kendall Rogers
12:53
Mississippi State could definitely move up -- but honestly at this point I don't really care what national seed I am as long as I'm a top eight. And there, the Dogs are a lock.
SECbaseball
12:53
Does a 2-2 week from Bama, plus minimal stolen bids in other conf. tournaments, put the tide on the right side of the bubble or would they need to do more than that to feel safe?
Kendall Rogers
12:53
Two wins in Hoover would certainly make things interesting for Alabama, which is ahead of UK in the pecking order for me. I would say Alabama would be 50-50 with that scenario, depending on what happens in other conference tournaments.
Roll Wave
12:54
What in the world happened to the Wave in Cincinnati?! Those early season outings appear to have Olthoff dragging now. Is it win the tourny or bust for the boys from Uptown?
Aaron Fitt
12:54
I don't know what Olthoff's stuff looked like in Cincinnati, but his velocity was just 86-88 when I saw him in Greenville, and he did not look like the same guy I saw on TV early in the year. Maybe it is indeed a matter of fatigue. Yeah, Tulane is not in very good shape now, and it probably does need to win the auto bid. Maybe reaching the finals of the tournament would give Tulane enough of an RPI boost to get them back in at-large range there (currently No. 77), but would it be enough to offset getting swept in a four-game set by Cincinnati in the final weekend? I doubt it.
Tyler
12:57
Which is more likely... OU getting in as the Big 12's 5th representative, or the Big 12 only getting 4 teams in?
Kendall Rogers
12:57
Tyler -- probably the Big 12 only getting four teams in the field. I still think Baylor and Oklahoma have some work to do in Oklahoma City to say the least, and the Bears might have a hard time going on a run with Tyler Thomas and Blake Helton both out this week with COVID/injuries.
Heel
12:57
How should UNC feel going into the ACC Tournament? I would think they would be in with a 1-1 week, but would an 0-2 tournament showing put them on the outside looking in?
Aaron Fitt
12:57
Yeah 1-1 probably gets UNC in, assuming the bubble doesn't contract to some extreme degree. That would make UNC 27-25 overall and 19-19 in the ACC -- that's still pretty bubblish, but right now I think the Heels are clearly ahead of some other bubble teams in the pecking order (Louisville, for instance). But I think going 0-2 in Charlotte would probably doom the Heels; finishing .500 overall and 18-20 in the ACC is likely not getting any team into a regional.
CEM
1:00
Going into the final 2 weeks of the regular season, you said Baylor needed to be 3-3 to guarantee and would most likely be safe at 2-4.  They ended at 2-4 but really all talks are they are not safe at all.  What does Baylor need to do this week to make the field of 64?  If they lose to Tech in their first game but win the next in the losers side is that enough or will they need to win at least twice this week?
Aaron Fitt
1:00
We still have Baylor in the field... but yes, going 2-4 in that final stretch did make their position more precarious. I'd like to see Baylor win twice in OKC to secure its at-large case. A 1-2 showing would leave them 12-15 in the league -- that feels pretty dicey. They could still sneak in with that record, but it just depends how big the bubble is.
Brandon
1:00
How about the job Will Bolt is doing in Nebraska?  He may have finally woken a sleeping giant in Lincoln, as I've always thought the Huskers had everything in place to be the premier Big Ten program.  That team will be trouble wherever they end up going, though they seemed destined to go play against former coach DVH in the Fayetteville regional.  What are the odds of the Huskers somehow finding a way to beat the #1 team in the nation on their own turf?
Kendall Rogers
1:00
Brandon -- Will and his staff have done a great job. Will was a terrific, hard-nosed player, and he learned under two excellent coaches in Rob Childress and DVH. So, it's no surprise to me that he was ready for this job. Did I expect NU to win the Big Ten this year? Not really. I'm happy for Will and his staff, especially Lance, whom I actually went to HS with. As for the regional pairings, I don't think the Huskers end up at the No. 1 national seed right now, so rest easy!
FittsMagic
1:01
More RPI talk: is there a chance that RPI only gets used when the committee wants to provide reason for certain choices and ignore it in other spots?
Aaron Fitt
1:01
Feels about right! Nobody cherry-picks metrics to fit their narrative like the Division I Baseball Committee!
Guest
1:01
Hey guys. CUSA question. If Florida Atlantic was to win the CUSA tournament, would that steal a bid from one of the 4 top teams? Or would CUSA get 5 teams in?
Kendall Rogers
1:01
Guest -- Great question. That would be a stolen bid because I think all four teams currently projected to be in the field are absolute locks to be in the field. I would keep an eye on FAU, too. Coach Mac has had those guys playing much better as of late.
Jim
1:02
How far outside is Miami from the top 25? Finishing 4th in the ACC and winning 8 of 10 wasn't good enough to put them in top 25?
Aaron Fitt
1:02
Not far outside the Top 25 -- we debated Miami and wanted to bring the Hurricanes in if we had room, but we did not. The back-to-back series losses to UNC and BC weren't that long ago; right now those two weekends are still holding Miami back.
Guest
1:04
If Oregon wins 2 or 3 at Cal do you see them potentially getting a top 8 seed? Sweep would still give them a share of the PAC-12 championship.
Kendall Rogers
1:04
Guest -- I think Oregon and Stanford are still very very much in the mix for a top eight seed.
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