JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 3

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 3

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Bill

1:58

Can Wazzu still make a run at regionals?

Kendall Rogers

1:58

BILL -- Absolutely. The Cougars have a respectable RPI of 58, and the conference record still isn't where it needs to be at 9-12. But guess what? Wazzu still has UCLA and Washington at home. Win two of those three final series and you could see Brian Green's club get into a regional. The pathway is there.

Sam

1:59

Are ECU’s chances for a national seed pretty much gone after going 2-2 the last two weekends?

Kendall Rogers

1:59

Sam -- Definitely are not done as a Top 16 seed, but a top eight could be tough at this point with an RPI of 16. ECU will need to finish strong to be into the Top 8.

Bennett

2:04

What does K-State need to do to make it to regionals?

Kendall Rogers

2:04

Bennett -- Kansas State has an RPI of 133, so they're going to need to finish very strong and then probably go on a massive run in the Big 12 tournament. They are much better than that RPI, though, IMO.

Guest

2:05

the PAC-12 can conceivably receive 7 bids . Can you see this happening as well ? How many and who do you see receiving host bids from PAC 12 ?

Aaron Fitt

2:05

Yeah we've had the Pac locked in with six bids for a while now, but suddenly you can see a path for Wazzu or Cal getting in there too -- this weekend was huge for both of those teams. I think they both have considerable work to do and six still feels most likely, but seven is certainly within the realm of possibility now. I see three hosts -- Arizona, Oregon and Stanford feel likely, with UCLA still in the hunt and Oregon State hanging on the margin too.

TOAST

2:07

RUTGERS. If they can can get 2 or more wins in their next stretch versus Indiana and Nebraska. Also take care of business with the rest of their schedule which is a cake walk. Do they play their way into an at Large?

Aaron Fitt

2:07

Yeah, I certainly think so. At this point I think they've already played themselves onto the right side of the bubble, after winning back to back road series at Michigan and Nebraska, both of whom were ranked in the Top 25 at the time of the meetings. I think 17-13 in the Big Ten with those nice wins under their belt has put the Knights in very strong position.

Raider down

2:09

What is the highest seed you could see Tech receiving? Any way they make Top 8 or do we need to settle for the 9-16 range?

Aaron Fitt

2:09

Top eight feels like a stretch still considering they're five games out of first place, but if they can somehow overtake Texas for second place, I could see them getting into the top eight. Otherwise, 9-11 feels about right.

Guest

2:12

preferential SEC bias at work again. Ole Miss wins 1 out of the last 5 series or a better way to put it is . Ole Miss has lost last 4 of 5 series and you rank them at 12. ?
Vanderbilt has Lost two of the last 4 series and you rank them #2 ? Shameful !!!!!

Aaron Fitt

2:12

I'm worried about this guy's blood pressure. Hey, have you considered yoga?

Jim from ACC Land

2:16

It seems that there could be some big jobs that come open this summer. Without getting into specifics of individual programs, can you give me three coaches who's recent stock will put them into consideration for a step-up in the coaching ranks? Thanks

Aaron Fitt

2:16

I think Scott Jackson's continued strong work at Liberty plus his long track record as a premium recruiter during his assistant days should make him a hot commodity on the power-five jobs market. I feel the same way about Lane Burroughs at Louisiana Tech -- those two guys are absolute slam dunks.

Bob

2:19

What are DBU's chances of getting at large bid?

Kendall Rogers

2:19

Bob -- I actually kind of feel like DBU will work its way into at-large position before the regular season and conference tournaments come to an end. Its RPI was once in the 100s, but now it's all the way up to 68. That triple digit RPI was always very deceiving to begin with. Really good club, IMO.

Corey81280

2:20

With Arkansas having only a one game lead in the SEC west and overall, what would it take to keep the #1 National seed. Can they win each series and stay if Mississippi State or Vandy sweep and win the SEC? You guys say that you typically won’t drop a team if they win the weekend series, but it seems that might be tough if they are beat out by one of the aforementioned teams for the overall SEC. This might make the SEC tournament more valuable than ever. This has been an awesome season. I’ve loved all your stories and knowledge of college baseball. Keep up the great work!

Aaron Fitt

2:20

I do think Arkansas' overall body of work is strong enough to make it the No. 1 national seed even if it doesn't win the regular-season title (which is usually the item that carries the most weight). If they can go through an entire year without losing a weekend, against the toughest schedule in the country, then I don't care if they somehow finish in second place, particularly since unbalanced schedules in the SEC complicate the standings.

Road hog

2:20

I know it’s been better the last few weeks but do you still think the hogs starting pitching is an liability going forward?

Kendall Rogers

2:20

ROAD -- I have much more concern about the bullpen, which has been hit around pretty good at times the past couple of weeks. But I feel better about the rotation right now with Wicklander throwing so well, and certainly Pallette showing premium stuff at times as well. The bullpen should be much, much better outside of Mr. Kopps.

Captain Morgan

2:21

Can the West Coast Conference be a 2 bid league?

Kendall Rogers

2:21

I feel pretty confident San Diego and Gonzaga are in no matter what as of today. But the only concern I have with USD is if it stumbles at all down the stretch, it has zero games against RPI Top 50 teams. That Gonzaga series getting whacked is an absolute killer for the Toreros in some ways.

Raider Red

2:23

We know you hate everyone, but how do you feel about the Big 12's chances to get multiple teams to Omaha?

Kendall Rogers

2:23

Raider -- I feel pretty good about TCU, and I think Texas is in good position with Pete Hansen looking very good against Texas Tech and moving into the weekend rotation. I think TCU has a higher ceiling of those two teams. Tech is the wild card. I like what the Red Raiders have offensively, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about that bullpen. I feel much better about TTU in a super regional than I do a regional at this point.

Sam Smith

2:25

How worried should Tennessee fans be about the bad bullpen/ lack of bullpen depth and the lack of a true fourth starter for this team come tournament time? How does this affect their ceiling?

Aaron Fitt

2:25

Almost nobody has four real workhorse starters, so I think that part's not a factor -- if it comes to the fourth or fifth game of a regional, just about everybody will having to cobble it together. I actually liked the bullpen when I sat on three Tennessee games in Athens -- there's not a ton of velocity, but Hunley and Walsh have such awesome track records when it comes to simply getting people out -- and I know Hunley had a bad outing this week, but I still trust him and Walsh. Connell's recent struggles are a bit more concerning to me because he doesn't have the long track record and it's not like he can just rely on overpowering stuff, so we'll see how he bounces back. I'm not in love with the depth of the staff, and I do think it could bite them in June. If they can stay in the winners' bracket, I'll like their chances to make an Omaha run a whole lot better. All of that said -- geez, they're 34-11, so clearly their pitching has held up pretty damn well over the course of the season.

Harris

2:26

How does Louisiana Tech look in the hosting race after going 4-0 at Middle Tennessee?

Kendall Rogers

2:26

Harris -- Certainly right in the thick of it. As of right now, the RPI is within the realm of possibility, and the Bulldogs have the 11th most Top 50 RPI wins in college baseball right now. That's pretty loud when you're jockeying for position for a Top 16. At this point I think I expect Ruston to be on the list of 20 potential host sites.

Big 12 Fan

2:28

You said last week that the winner of the Texas-TCU series will likely lock up a National seed. Do you still feel that way after Texas dropped the series to Tech? Also, do you think there’s any way for the loser of this series to get a national seed? It seems more likely that if TCU loses this series that they would stay in that discussion than Texas would.

Aaron Fitt

2:28

Yeah at this point I think TCU is almost a lock for a top-eight regardless given its stranglehold on first place -- even if it loses two of three to Texas it will be alone in first. But if Texas wins that series, I think both of them secure top-eight spots. If Texas loses the series, I suspect it will get jumped by somebody else.

Reid

2:28

UNC had a rough week. How exactly do they need to finish in order to make the field?

Kendall Rogers

2:28

Reid -- I'll let Aaron chime in on this as well, but sitting 14-16 in league with two series remaining, I think the Tar Heels need to take both series to feel good going into the ACC tournament. If they split the series and don't get swept and don't sweep, that would put them at 17-20 entering the ACC tourney. That might still get them in, but it would be very close. The fact the ACC is playing more games than the SEC, for instance, SHOULD and could factor into the equation.

Aaron Fitt

2:30

Actually it would be 17-19, and I think that should be enough to get an ACC team in at the end of a 36-game grind -- but the fact that the Heels are currently below .500 overall really undermines their chances, even though the committee has waved the winning record requirement this year if I recall.

Kendall Rogers

2:31

Correct. 500 record is not required this year.

Guest

2:29

Do you see UF hosting a regional?

Aaron Fitt

2:29

After that Vandy series, I sure do. That was absolutely huge. I can't believe Florida is still just No. 29 in the RPI... but I think it will continue to climb.

JimmyGeez

2:30

Rutgers made its biggest statement in at least the past 25 years with the sweep in Lincoln. How does that position them for an at-large bid? Zero off weeks with IU and Nebraska coming to the Garden State this weekend. Does a 3-1 weekend put them into consideration for Top 25?

Kendall Rogers

2:30

Jimmy -- Rutgers was on the discussion board for the Top 25 this week. Frankly, I'd have Rutgers slightly ahead of Maryland on my postseason order in the Big Ten, and the Scarlet Knights have a chance to bolster that this weekend with games against Indiana and Nebraska in Piscataway. If RU has a good weekend at home, the remaining schedule sets up VERY well. Steve Owens, by the way, is terrific.

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