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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 3
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Kyle Niblett
2:32
Three weeks ago you said Florida's only chance at hosting a regional was to beat Vandy and take care of business in the other series. Now that they've done that, if they win series at UK and home vs. UGA and don't get swept at Arkansas, are they a lock to host?  Nobody above them in RPI has fewer road wins...
Kendall Rogers
2:32
Nib -- Great seeing you on TV each week. If Florida does what you said above, it will host. I expect Gainesville to be one of the 20 potential sites when it's released next week.
cowtownBill
2:34
TCU seems to have all the pieces together for a long playoff run except perhaps for one thing: can the Frogs (or any team) have post-season success in college baseball without a dominant, hard-throwing closer?
cool 1
Aaron Fitt
2:34
Just thinking about recent champions, the 2018 Oregon State club didn't have a big fireballer at the back end, their top guy was Brandon Eisert, a high-80s lefty who could really pitch. Coastal Carolina's top two guys were Mike Morrison and Bobby Holmes, righties who competed their rear ends off and attacked with solid stuff but not mid-90s heat. I don't think you necessarily need a Riley Ferrell  pumping high-90s cheese at the back to win it all.
WPS18
2:38
How does this Arkansas team compare to the 2018 team that was 1 out away? That team struggled on the road in conference but somehow knew how to win big games until the end.
Aaron Fitt
2:38
That team also had Big-Game Blaine and Isaiah Campbell and Kacey Murphy, three workhorse starters they could lean upon, and probably more bullpen options they could trust, but they didn't have Kevin Kopps, who is a weapon of mass destruction in human form. Both teams were elite offensively with serious firepower, but the 2021 team is much better defensively. And both clubs did seem to have that "find a way" gene that you can't quantify. So take your pick on which you like better.
Jj
2:40
Should leftwich just remain in the pen or try moving him back to a Saturday starting position with mace going back to Fri night??..ty
Kendall Rogers
2:40
JJ -- Watching his attitude and his stuff in the final inning against Vanderbilt yesterday, I think I like him a lot in that role. He looked comfortable there. With that said, he has really, really good stuff at times, so it would be easy to see why Sully might want him in a more "lengthy' role down the stretch.
BHorn
2:43
Does the Big 12 look likely to have 3 hosts at this point? Still the #2 RPI conference and three quality teams in TCU, Texas and TTU
Kendall Rogers
2:43
BHorn -- Assuming Texas Tech finishes strong, which it should with UIC, OU and Kansas remaining, I would have the Red Raiders as a host. Right now, the RPI is at 13 with a league record two games better than .500. I also know the committee will be well aware that Tech is winning at this clip with a ton of injuries. To me, that magnifies its success a bit.
PaBaseballfan
2:44
Pitt probably a lock for a 2 seed at this point or do they still have a chance at getting a top 16 host? Rpi has stayed steady missed a big op with the Louisville series but is there a way with 46 submitted host locations that they could get a bid? Thanks guys! And also a follow up are they just announcing the 20 potential locations on the 10th or will it be the top 16 hosts on the 10th?
Aaron Fitt
2:44
We actually had Pitt as a host last week even coming off a canceled weekend, because other host candidates had faltered and we liked Pitt's body of work (five pretty darn good series wins on that resumé) and geographic location. A two-week pause right in the heart of the season certainly complicates things, but I think Pitt is still right in the thick of the race, and if it can at least take two of three vs. BC this weekend, it has a shot to be one of the 20 potential hosts announced next weekend (it will be narrowed again to 16 later).
AJ
2:46
I would love for Southern Miss to host, and I do believe we are in the mix. But I just don’t think the committee would give the state of MS 3 host sites. Would you agree?
Kendall Rogers
2:46
AJ -- I like the way you're looking at this. I think for Southern Miss to host, it would need to be the best team in Conference USA. As it stands, let's say La Tech, MSU and Ole Miss all host. I think that really hurts USM's chances to do so. I would lean against USM being one of those 20 potential host sites next week, but we'll see what the committee might have in store.
Dan
2:46
So Fairfield finally lost. Now that they aren't undefeated, which of these statements do you think is true? They have to win the MAAC Tournament to make a Regional...they have to have a strong showing in the MAAC Tournament to make a Regional...or they are already a lock for a Regional.
Aaron Fitt
2:46
I lean toward "they have to make a strong showing in the MAAC tournament to make a regional". I mean for cripes' sake, they're 29-1 -- I don't think the fact that they didn't post an undefeated regular season torpedoes their at-large hopes, even though we all get that the MAAC ain't the SEC. But I also think a winless showing at the MAAC tourney could really undermine their hopes. So winning a couple games at the tournament feels sufficient for me -- but really who knows what the committee will do? There's no real historical parallel for this situation that we can draw upon.
Grant
2:49
What are we thinking about my Pokes regional chances at this point? The RPI and SOS are strong, but the injuries and close losses are taking their toll on this team. I think they'll be safe if they can get to (11-13) in league play but man has it been a struggle lately. Thanks!
Aaron Fitt
2:49
I feel the same way -- 11-13 probably gets them in, but yeah they do feel snake-bit right now. That win last night felt like a potential season-saver for the moment at least, but do they have enough left in the tank to go at least 3-3 over the next two weeks? We'll find out.
Sports Fan
2:50
I've admittedly watched very little Pac 12 Baseball this year (mostly due to their games being hard to find on TV) and don't have a feel for their teams in the top 25.  Who should I be most scared off if they show up as a two or three seed in my team's regional?
Kendall Rogers
2:50
Sports -- the two teams for me would be Arizona and UCLA for different reasons. Arizona has a very very good offense, and the pitching has been solid in spurts, too. It is the most consistent team in this league. With that said, UCLA is Florida-esque in the sense that it hasn't played to its potential much of the season. Could the OSU series have been a turning point for the Bruins?
Crash and Burn
2:52
Hey guys, long time subscriber and absolutely love the quality of writing here on all things baseball. Should beaver fans be hitting the panic button yet? There were a number of uncharacteristic errors this weekend and some poor defense. Even when a pitcher puts in a quality start the offense hasn't been able to provide support. We're they just unlucky that UCLA found their stride this weekend or is it really just the beavers?
Aaron Fitt
2:52
Thanks for being a long-time subscriber and thanks for the kind words, we appreciate you! My thought is that Friday loss felt like one of those fluky "that's baseball" games that happen to everybody from time to time, and Saturday the bats went cold but Hjerpe sure gave his team a chance. And then the Beavs bounced back to win a big game and avoid the sweep. I've never really thought Oregon State was an elite team this year, but it feels like they are what we thought they were -- a solid at-large team but probably a 2-seed with a 3-seed floor.
Brandon
2:52
Kendall - Who are a couple of Ŧ’s younger pitchers you think have the potential to step up late in the year and throw quality innings?
Kendall Rogers
2:52
Brandon -- I've really liked what I've seen from Brendan Girton at times this season. I'm also very curious to see how Levi Wells pitches down the stretch. He was 92-94 mph yesterday in Austin, but command was spotty. But, boy, he has a lot of upside.
Guest
2:55
Obviously, after Nebraska's disasterous weekend any chance of hosting a regional is gone. Did getting swept put them on the bubble? The Big 10 is not one of the top leagues in baseball, they are no longer in first place and their RPI (which I know is harder to judge without NC games) dropped to 86! They can redeem themselves with a much harder schedule coming up but for now I think they are in trouble, thoughts?
Aaron Fitt
2:55
Well first off, the RPI is utterly worthless without nonconference games, so just cast that part of it aside. At 20-10, I don't think Nebraska is on the at-large bubble yet, but the Huskers could find themselves slipping in that direction if they don't rebound in a tough weekend against Rutgers and Indiana coming up in Piscataway. What a huge weekend for all parties involved.
Ryan
2:55
Can you explain your rationale for keeping Vandy at 2 despite losing their weekend series, when State moved down after dropping their series on the road at Vandy the week prior? I know rankings don’t truly matter but just curious as to why they didn’t move down in your rankings. Thanks guys!
Kendall Rogers
2:55
Rankings are done week to week, and every week is different. Fresh off a home series win over Mississippi State, we didn't feel it made much sense to move Vanderbilt, at least for now, below MSU when it just took a series from MSU two weekends ago. The main team we discussed leaping over Vanderbilt was TCU, which leads the Big 12 by a whopping two games. But we are comfortable with keeping the Commodores at 2. Sometimes someone has to come up and grab your ranking.
Pat
2:58
Does a split with ECU do Tulane any good this weekend?  Can Tulane make up for a dismal "pre-season" and get a bid?
Aaron Fitt
2:58
Yeah I think the answer is "yes" on both parts of your question. Tulane is 13-2 in the league, 1.5 games up on ECU heading into this weekend, so a split would maintain that lead, which is huge -- we know the committee always values regular-season titles. Also, the Green Wave will surely get a big RPI boost from playing those four games, on the road, against a team with a great record. The American is the No. 6 RPI conference (somehow) and feels like a solid bet to get two teams into regionals, and Tulane's momentum matters. That first half feels like ancient history. Win two of four this weekend, and Tulane will be in very strong position for an at-large.
JB
3:00
With many states opened fully and allowing full capacity crowds, why doesn’t the NCAA allow the amount of people allowed by the state mandate instead of putting a hard cap on attendance. Seems to be just COVID theatre that you can have a full Dudy Noble or Baum but then go back to restrictions.
Kendall Rogers
3:00
JB -- My educated guess is that the NCAA is going to set the attendance at 50 percent capacity, and capacities will be listed at very generous amounts. I wouldn't worry too much about it right now.
ClemsonSam
3:00
Where does Virginia stack up in your postseason projections? The start was tumultuous and obviously surprising, but the Hoos are finding themselves now and seem to be peaking at a great time.
Aaron Fitt
3:00
I definitely agree with you that the Cavaliers are finding themselves and peaking at the right time. I wrote a lengthy piece about UVa this morning after seeing the win in Blacksburg last night, and I broke down their postseason chances. Check it out on the site!
BILLY B
3:02
Dawgs only 1 game back now with, in my opinion, the most favorable remaining schedule. Thoughts on Dawgs getting at least a share of SEC crown? Also, at this point, I think starting Harding on Sunday is a move that needs to happen, thoughts? Thanks as always!
Kendall Rogers
3:02
Billy -- We will see on the first, but you bring up a really good point on Houston Harding. I watched some of that game with A&M the other night, and I loved his hard-nosed approach. He was terrific in those five shutout innings against the Aggies, and like Pete Hansen coming out of the bullpen for UT yesterday against Texas Tech, Houston has probably earned a larger role. WTS -- State is so deep and loaded on the mound, the roles are merely just that. All those guys will have an impact down the stretch.
RFBleacherCreature
3:05
Well that was certainly a shocking development in TigerTown, SC this weekend.  The ACC is really just continuing to show there are a lot of good but not elite teams, and that Caden Grice dude is a baaaaaad man.  With Clemson's remaining ACC schedule @GT, @FSU, Duke and home games in the midweek vs. Upstate and South Carolina, what is the formula for the Tigers to get in the tournament?  Is there any way they get completely off the bubble and are safely in?
Aaron Fitt
3:05
Feels to me like there's just not a lot of big-time pitching in the ACC, and that's the biggest reason everybody is beating up on each other. Clemson is suddenly in very good shape again at 15-12 in the league; I've been saying all along that any team that goes .500 in a 36-game ACC grind should be safe, and I still feel that way. So for Clemson, that means going at least 3-6 down the stretch. I will say that losing the last three series could undermine that "going .500 should be enough" theory, because the committee does look at momentum over the final 15 games, and losing the last three series would not be a good idea.
cool 1
Aaron Fitt
3:05
OK everybody, another fun chat. You guys are fantastic. See you all next week!
JULIAN in greenbrier
3:06
if Arkansas makes it to Omaha would you consider them to be the heavy favorite to win it all or do you have someone in mind that will knock them off the throne????
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