JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 7

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 7

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Weston

2:03

Texas Tech still on the good side of the bubble? Is winning the WV series mandatory?

Kendall Rogers

2:03

Weston -- I would still have Texas Tech in as of today, but yes, a series loss to West Virginia would be an issue. That's a series that the Red Raiders desperately need to win. I'd also keep an eye on OU, which is right there with Tech in the Big 12 standings and actually has a better RPI of 45. WTS - I prefer Tech right now by a decent clip, especially given it has the H2H.

Ted D

2:04

Thanks for the fantastic coverage. As we head toward the regionals, do you see a path for U Va to host? And what does Stanford have to do to ensure being a national seed? Thanks!!

Kendall Rogers

2:04

Ted -- Sure, the Cavaliers have struggled in the ACC as of late, but should they win their last two series, they would enter the ACC tournament with 17 league wins in the regular season. That would be a pretty strong metric to go with a strong RPI to host. Clearly, the Hoos need to play better, but they are close to the hosting mix for sure.

Terpitude

2:07

I know that RPI reigns supreme in the selection committee's opinion (too bad D1Baseball doesn't make the selections]. But if Maryland wins out, and wins the B1G tournament, can they possibly grab a spot as a Regional host?

Kendall Rogers

2:07

Maryland would have to win out the rest of the season just to have an RPI inside 32, so clearly it is approaching this thing from a position of weakness. However, the Terps could absolutely get into contention by A) playing well to end the regular season and B) racking up some wins in the Big Ten tournament.

Dan

2:08

Where do you see Indiana State ending up in the post season? Any chance they would be a host with their high RPI?

Kendall Rogers

2:08

Dan -- We had Indiana State as a host last week, and we will see if that continues to be the case. Right now, Clemson and Kentucky would easily both host this week, so someone is going to have to come out and that someone might be ISU. I love the RPI, but that Top 50 record is still pretty problematic for me vs. some of the other contenders.

jackson the tiger fan

2:10

do y'all think Clemson has the arms to win a regional i know we have the bats but the arms we have worry me thanks- Jackson

Aaron Fitt

2:10

Hi Jackson -- Yeah I feel pretty good about the way the pitching has shaped up. Grice emerging as a legit weekend starter has been a big development, and I really like Gordon at the front end, and I think they have plenty of nice pieces to mix and match with in the bullpen. Feels like a team that can indeed win a regional.

cardinal fan

2:11

Is louisville completely out of the postseason after getting swept this weekend?

Kendall Rogers

2:11

Cardinal -- I would not have Louisville in the field as of today with a 9-14 league record. This weekend is a must win. If U of L is sitting at 10-17 in the league heading into that final series against Florida State, it makes that a weekend where you honestly need to sweep to have a shot. I know the Cards are banged up, but their collapse has been odd.

Heel

2:11

Early thoughts on UNC/NCSU? Huge series with UNC trying to solidify a postseason berth and NCSU needing ACC wins.

Aaron Fitt

2:11

Yeah, that's a big one. Wolfpack showed us something this past weekend, after losing that opener at Notre Dame it felt like the next two games were must-win, and NC State won them both pretty convincingly, getting great pitching. Lots on the line for both teams this weekend to try to solidify their at-large position, no doubt.

Greg

2:14

How concerned are we about LSU's pitching after Skenes? Floyd has a 6.57 ERA in conference play, Little does not look like the answer in that third spot, Hurd has only gone more than two innings once in the past seven weeks, and three of their better arms in Shores, Taylor, and Edwards are done for the year.

Kendall Rogers

2:14

Greg -- I'm pretty concerned. Outside of Paul Skenes, there's not a starting pitcher LSU has on its roster right now that Jay Johnson can put out there and he has 100% confidence in (or should have confidence in at this point). That is a problem. I still am sky high on the Tigers, but that's still an issue.

GatorBait

2:14

I thought the SEC would be as deep as ever this year thanks to the transfer rules, but that did not seem to be the case the first 7 weeks with lots of sweeps and a group of teams running away from the pack. Finally, this week the depth showed up with four of the front runners dropping a series on the road against a bubble-ish team. Do you see the committee putting more or less significance on Hoover because of this?

Aaron Fitt

2:14

You're right, the league felt very top-heavy for a while this year, but it does feel like those middle-tier teams made a big move this weekend. All of a sudden you've got Bama, A&M and Auburn all sitting at 11-13, bearing down on rock-solid at-large position, with Georgia very much in the hunt at 10-14, and Kentucky back on track, and Tennessee at 12-12. It does feel to me like there is a lot of jockeying for teams to do in Hoover, but man, from year to year it's just hard to know how much emphasis a committee will put on the conference tourneys. Last year's committee seemed to ignore that stuff altogether -- just ask NC State -- and a lot of those folks are still on the committee. Who knows?

Timothy

2:17

WVU Baseball held steady at #12 in the D1Baseball Poll this week after winning another Big 12 series.. What must they do against Texas Tech, at Texas, and in the Big 12 Tournament to have a realistic shot at a Top 8 National Seed?

Aaron Fitt

2:17

Feels to me like winning both of those last two series (and cruising comfortably to the Big 12 regular-season title) would probably be enough to secure a top-eight spot, maybe even regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. Or let's say they go 3-3 down the stretch, hold on for the regular-season title, and win a couple games at Globe Life -- I think that would do it too.

Josh from Huntsville

2:19

Yes, Auburn still has a lot of work to do...BUT...just thinking out loud, what would AU need to do to get a sniff of hosting? Any chance? Win out?

Aaron Fitt

2:19

You might have sounded crazy for asking that question not too long ago... but you're right, all of a sudden they're up to No. 28 in the RPI with an 11-13 SEC record. They need to get to at least 16 SEC wins to have a shot -- teams that finish .500 in their league never host -- so that would mean winning five of their last six (at Ole Miss, vs. Missouri). I mean, that sounds doable. But at 16-14, they'd probably need to be in the top 16 or so in the RPI, and they don't have a path to get there in the regular season, so would need to add a couple wins in Hoover, I think.

Dave

2:22

Please explain the love for Coastal. All I see is a few good midweek wins which begs the question should these midweek games count in the same regard towards RPI as a weekend series? Appears to me different teams take different approaches to these games but it’s mostly games with bad pitching and a guy or two resting.

Aaron Fitt

2:22

I mean, in addition to its midweek success, Coastal also has not lost a weekend all year, has won quality series against Davidson (best team in the A-10), Texas State, at ODU, vs. Southern Miss, at Louisiana. CCU is No. 11 in the RPI with an 8-6 mark against the top 50 -- it's a lot harder to be No. 11 in the RPI as a mid-major than it is as an SEC team that rolls out of bed and automatically gets a giant RPI bump before it even gets to the field every day. I think Coastal has flaws -- really not sold on the pitching -- but I have a ton of respect for the season they've had so far.

Will

2:26

How might this Stanford team, if they were to reach Omaha, have more success than previous teams?

Aaron Fitt

2:26

I love to bet on teams with strong bullpens in the postseason, and all of a sudden it feels like Stanford's bullpen is really coming on strong, with Ryan Bruno and Drew Dowd leading the way as power lefties with shutdown stuff, then Brandt Pancer and Max Meier giving them two good options from the right side. All of those guys are better than their season numbers show, and all of them are pitching great as we head down the stretch, when it matters most. Mathews and Dixon feels like a bankable one-two punch in the rotation, and the lineup has power and depth and loads of experience. This is a roster with two years of Omaha experience under its belts, and that matters. Cardinal have flew under the radar just a bit, but they started the year as No. 3 and now they're No. 4 -- pretty much performed right as forecasted. Very good club.

Chance

2:29

What are odds A&M host a regional?

Kendall Rogers

2:29

Chance -- no shot unless they went 5-1 or 6-0 to end the regular season AND went on a big run at the SEC tournament. But the Aggies did boost their postseason chances over the weekend with that series win over Florida. Having series wins over Kentucky and Florida from an RPI standpoint is pretty massive.

Packfan

2:31

Currently sitting with a top 20 RPI what is NC State’s post season outlook with 2 ACC series remaining?

Kendall Rogers

2:31

Pack -- they are in better shape than Louisville thanks to having the head to head, a higher RPI and a better league record by 1 1/2 games, but a series loss to UNC this weekend would put the Pack in a situation where they'd pretty much have to win the Pittsburgh series in two weeks.

BirminghamEagle

2:32

How do you like Southern Miss’s chance to host regional if they can keep the 10 game winning streak going? Would they need to win all 6 remaining games to host if they go deep in conf tournament?

Aaron Fitt

2:32

If they can keep that streak going -- let's say they sweep ULM on the road (and they really need to sweep that, since the Warhawks are just 16-32), then take two of three vs. Louisiana to win the regular season, they'd probably finish in the mid-20s in the RPI heading into the conference tournament. If they can win the regular-season Sun Belt title and sneak inside the top 20 (probably with a couple wins in the conference tourney), I like their chances to host.

Dawson

2:33

How close was Bama in consideration in the top 25, they have a top 20 RPI, just beat the best sec team with an interim coach

Kendall Rogers

2:33

Dawson -- Alabama was in the discussion, but frankly, you should not be ranked with an 11-13 SEC record. Win that series this weekend against A&M and the Tide would probably have a much better shot. Same goes for the Aggies in reverse, and Auburn this coming weekend.

TLowe

2:34

Is the quality (lack of) of Oklahoma State's series wins what is keeping them out of your rankings?

Kendall Rogers

2:34

Yes. I actually like Oklahoma State's roster, and I feel better about Josh Holliday's club with the return of Nolan McLean, but the resume is just flat out bad. Series losses to Texas Tech, TCU and West Virginia -- the marquee series win is a series win over unranked Texas. That's just not going to cut it.

Eric Simmons

2:35

After getting swept by California is UCLA in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament?

Kendall Rogers

2:35

Zero doubt the Bruins would be out if the season ended today. Two things happened over the weekend that really hurt them. 1) They didn't take care of business, 2) USC took care of Oregon at home and now has the head-to-head + is up two games in the conference standings. Not only is UCLA out this week, it is probably out by a sizable margin.

Asking for a friend

2:37

Gents: who do you have as your pitcher of the year? Could a power five pitcher, with a better winning percentage and lower ERA, beat out a SEC pitcher with more strikeouts?

Aaron Fitt

2:37

I just think nobody has had a better, more dominant season than Paul Skenes. I mean, 139 strikeouts against 13 walks, in 72.2 innings -- are you kidding me? All the numbers are great too: 9-1, 1.73, opponents hitting just .165. Wake Forest has two legit candidates in Lowder and Hartle, both of whom could make a case for best pitcher in the country is basically any other year (and even this year, you CAN make a case for, them; I mean, both have lower ERAs). But our stats people have developed a "wins above average" stat, which is like WAR for pro ball, and Skenes blows everybody away. It's not close.

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