JotCast | D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 7

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D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 7

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Kyle

2:42

Iowa is 30-12 and sit at 41 in the RPI right now. How comfortable are they in terms of an at-large bid right now? What do they have to do over their final 7 games to feel comfortable going into the Big Ten Tournament?

Kendall Rogers

2:42

Kyle -- if Iowa wins those two series to end the regular season as expected, it would be in solid shape to make the NCAA tournament, IMO. The RPI is within range and there are some really nice wins on Iowa's resume.

Cole

2:43

Does UNCW have a chance for an at large? Thoughts on CAA currently?

Kendall Rogers

2:43

Cole -- UNCW is at least in the discussion with its RPI up to 61, but it would be a little short right now. Finish the regular season strong and play well in the conference tournament and its situation could change a bit. I just don't see a CAA team with an RPI around 55-60 getting into the field right now.

fansince1983

2:45

Do you think Oregon State still has a shot at a regional after losing a game to Utah? Has to be bad RPI !!

Kendall Rogers

2:45

With two series remaining against two teams with blah RPIs in UCLA and Western Carolina, the Beavs don't have a lot of margin for error the next two weekends. With that said, if OSU can win both series and play well in the Pac 12 tourney, the pathway is there to get in that 22-25 range in the RPI -- i.e., hosting range. The league record is right there.

Richard

2:45

What's in the water in the Carolinas? This week's poll features 7 of the top 16 teams from North or South Carolina. Three of these schools (Wake Forest, Duke, and Campbell) are small, private universities with a combined enrollment less than half of an LSU or Arkansas. Has the region become a new epicenter for college baseball?

Aaron Fitt

2:45

You're right, it is a very strong year for the Carolinas, isn't it? The region has certainly had seasons like this before, with multiple regionals in the Triangle or both Clemson and SC hosting, or Coastal, whatever. But it does feel like this year is particularly strong, with the mid-majors in the Carolinas surging together (Coastal, Campbell, UNC Wilmington, Wofford, Davidson all feel like potential postseason teams, in addition to longtime power ECU). Wake is having its best season ever, Duke has a chance to be a top-eight national seed for the first time, South Carolina is back, and Clemson now looks like a very strong host bet as well.

Tyler

2:46

IF and a big IF .. but IF Auburn sweeps OM and Mizzou the next two weeks and finishes 17-13 , do they have a chance to host?

Kendall Rogers

2:46

I mean .. if that happens, they would certainly be in the mix. They're in a bit more position of strength vs. say A&M. The other thing I like about Auburn is that it has those non-conference series wins over Indiana and USC. Those look pretty good right now.

TBall17

2:48

Is Texas A&M good again? I didn't see the Friday game, but looks like they nearly swept Florida. Is that a team that's dangerous in the postseason or just had a good weekend against a good team? Or maybe Florida is not as good as I thought.

Kendall Rogers

2:48

TBall -- We will see what the Aggies do against Alabama this weekend. They're an odd team. They go on the road and take 2/3 from UK, they get swept at Arkansas and play horrible while doing so, then take 2/3 from Florida in a series that could've easily been a sweep. The big differentiator for the Aggies this past weekend was their pitching. Dettmer at least gave them a little length, and the pitching was strong in the series finale with Will Johnston moving to starter and Evan Aschenbeck/Brandyn Garcia coming out of the pen. I feel better about A&M, but I'd prefer to see them do it again this weekend against a solid 'Bama club.

Eric

2:49

What does Oregon need to do down the stretch to stay in the hosting conversation? And any idea what kept Stoffal from pitching this weekend or when he'll be back? Waz said it was precautionary but not an arm issue and he traveled with the team, so it's been a bit of a mystery.

Kendall Rogers

2:49

If Oregon wins its final two series against Washington and Utah, it will be right there in the mix. It sounds like the deal with Stoffal is nothing serious -- but as always, let's see if he pitches during the upcoming weekend.

Irish Fan

2:50

With ND losing 2 of 3 vs. NC State but RPI still in the high 40s, I still see us as "in" but a lower seed than the projections last week. What reservations do you have with this team in the postseason? Are we still a 2? Or would you have us as a 3 now? My biggest concern is pitching. Obviously a lot of baseball still to play. Thanks guys!

Aaron Fitt

2:50

An ACC team with an RPI in the 40s is definitely bubble territory -- you'd like to see them climb up into the 30s, and maintain that winning record in the league (currently 14-13). If they can win that last road series at BC (and obviously take care of business against Akron and Northwestern), I think they should be fine. And yes, losing Findlay is such a huge blow; I do have concerns about their pitching, but I'm awfully impressed with their fight, once again. Lot of winning veteran players with serious pride in that program.

JD McKee

2:51

Of the 7 guaranteed games (Baylor series, Texas State and KSU series) plus potentially 2 games minimum in Arlington for tournament, how many games do TCU need to take to make the postseason? Unfortunately looking like they need to go 6-1 without dropping games to Baylor and have a good showing in Big 12 to make regionals.

Kendall Rogers

2:51

That Texas State game is big because its the best RPI opponent left on the regular season schedule (38). The issue for TCU right now is the conference record/standing. The seventh place Big 12 team with an RPI of 49 is not making the field. If the Frogs can make a little headway in that dept while also improving their RPI, I will feel better about their chances. I feel like this is a team that will need to play well in Arlington.

SDSouthpaw

2:53

First off, I want to say thanks for the increased coverage of the west coast. It's been great. Next, how much is a loss to RPI #258 UC Riverside telling about the Gauchos chances for an at large? UCSB's RPI has continued to slip the past couple of weeks. The needs report says they need to be at least 8-3 over their last 11 to stay within the top 45. Do you see them falling on to the bubble? Finally, what do you make of the free fall that UCLA is in? Their RPI is trashed and it doesn't seem likely they make the top 45. Can you envision the Bruins on the sidelines in June?

Kendall Rogers

2:53

SD -- I still feel like UCSB is comfortably in. Yes, the RPI is down to 42, but the record vs. RPI Top 50 is respectable, the conference standing is strong, and I have a feeling the Gauchos would rank favorably with the regional advisory committee. The team that's interesting in the Big West in addition to UCSB is UCI. The fifth place standing is an issue, but they're undefeated against the Pac 12 and have a solid RT50 metric. As for the Bruins, they are way out of the mix at this point.

Bozz

2:53

How likely is it the state of TX has zero regional hosts? Has that happened before in the modern format? If the season ended today, who are the top three TX teams with a hosting chance.

Aaron Fitt

2:53

According to Nerdmaster General Mark Etheridge, the state of Texas last got zero hosts in 2013, and before that in 2001. So it's pretty infrequent, of course, but it does feel like we're headed that way this year. DBU felt like the team with the best chance to host, and they're slipping in the RPI (No. 24 now, with just a 2-7 record against the top 50). That's not gonna get it done. Maybe Texas can finish very hot and make a late run at hosting (currently No. 25 in the RPI with a 12-9 Big 12 record), but I'm not really feeling that.

JimmyGeez

2:56

Tell me my Scarlet Knights aren't going to get screwed again this year! RU has had such a rollercoaster year with some awful series losses, but are playing well right now. Is this weekend's Illinois a MUST win and what else do we have to do to get into the field?

Kendall Rogers

2:56

Rutgers would be a dangerous postseason team, but they are pretty clearly behind Iowa for me right now. The issue for the Scarlet Knights is that they're 2-7 against teams I feel like would be in the field of 64 as of today. Georgia Southern struggling this year has really hurt Steve Owens' club. WTS, I'd love to see them get the opportunity. I think they're a pretty solid club with that top half of the lineup.

Tom

2:57

Let's call a spade a spade... the SEC Tournament will not mean a thing this year in terms of hosting, not getting in, etc. 8 teams in the top 15 can go 2 and out and rank/RPI will not suffer. Am I wrong on this?

Kendall Rogers

2:57

Depends on what Georgia, Auburn and Texas A&M do the next couple of weeks. If all three do well, the tournament will have very little meaning overall. If the Aggies and Auburn roll the next two weeks, they COULD get into hosting contention, but it's a long shot. South Carolina trying to hold on to a national seed and Tennessee trying to host are other potential storylines there at the moment.

Vinny Mack

2:57

Good morning! Realistically, how many teams will host from the Carolinas? I'm thinking Wake, South Carolina, Coastal and Duke are locked in with Campbell, ECU and Clemson knocking on the door. Any concerns from the committee or D1 putting too many host spots in the Carolinas?

Aaron Fitt

2:57

Good follow-up to the Carolinas question earlier. Yes, I agree with Wake, South Carolina, Duke and Coastal as being locked in as hosts as of today, though you could envision Coastal getting bumped out if that RPI slips and they don't win the Sun Belt regular-season title (currently tied with USM). Clemson is the one that has now separated from Cambpell and ECU and the other borderline host types; Tigers now look like a strong bet to host at 14-10 in the ACC with a No. 13 RPI. If the season ends with five teams in the Carolinas clearly worthy of hosting, I don't think the committee will balk at that -- we'll just have five regionals in the region. So be it.

We the North

3:01

Last week you dropped Uconn from a 11 overall seed to out of hosting despite an away conference sweep (albeit Villanova). I realize other teams are adding to to their resume at the same time. That seemed too harsh a punishment. What are the chances (assuming both teams finish strong) that both Uconn and BC host regionals. Tell the committee why it should not harbor a warmer school bias and award both northern schools (if deserved) hosting bids rather than putting them in one new england regional.

Aaron Fitt

3:01

Dropping UConn out of a national seed wasn't a "punishment" for anything they did -- it was just based on an updated analysis of their RPI reality, which is isn't great. Now, the Huskies have had some beneficial cancellations -- and say what you want about that, but there's no question that not having to play games with Brown, Villanova and Long Island over the last two weeks has been a good thing for UConn's RPI, and by extension its hosting chances. But with three games against 11-36 Butler ahead, we still expect UConn to finish in the 20s, which feels light for a host that has just a 4-1 record against the top 50. Great year... but the math just feels like it probably isn't going to add up.

Robert

3:03

No Wegner, Josenberger, or Stovall (the 1,2,3 hitters when healthy) and the Hogs still scored 31 on the road in Starkville. Do they have the deepest lineup in the country?

Aaron Fitt

3:03

Just incredible what that team has done. All season long they've had major injury issues to overcome, and they just keep on winning. Another questioner suggested this is one of DVH's best coaching jobs ever, and I agree -- he's got to be one of the front-runners for Coach of the Year.

Charlie

3:15

Love the Nerdcast, it gives me a whole new context while I am scrolling through the scores. As someone who is philosophically opposed to 9th/10th place power conference teams with losing records receiving tournament bids, I am slightly concerned that what Ole Miss did last year will make the committee more likely to pick one of those teams instead of a mid-major.

Aaron Fitt

3:15

Thanks for the kind words. And yes, I see where you're coming from here, it does feel like the Ole Miss run probably will embolden the faction of the committee that has a power-conference lean (and let's face it, John Cohen probably falls into that faction, and he has the most influence there as the chairman and a former D1 coach -- his credibility and sway with this committee will probably be outsized).

Aaron Fitt

3:15

Folks, we've got a big week here, and that's all I have time for today. Thanks for stopping by, and see you next week!

James

3:19

Is Texas under any consideration whatsoever to host? If possible, what would be needed to lock-in a host spot?

Kendall Rogers

3:19

Texas' RPI is sitting at 25 right now. Let's say the Longhorns win that series against WVU to end the regular season and play well in Arlington, it's not out of the realm of possibility. But this is not a resume with much meat on the bone with an 8-14 record vs RPI Top 50. Long shot.

Carson

3:20

Any path for Long Beach State to get into the field? If not, that's 4 years of no regionals under Valenzuela

Kendall Rogers

3:20

Zero path to the postseason for Long Beach State right now, and frankly, I am shocked. I still think Eric Valenzuela is a solid coach, but sometimes there are just weird fits, and this might be one of those situations. I feel like Long Beach should be in a regional once every four years. The issue in terms of a change is that there appears to be a conscious effort from new brass there to cut costs, etc.....

Guest

3:22

Should lemonis be let go for the good of the program?

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