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D1Softball Weekly Chat: May 9
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Ron
2:30
With Minnesota taking the series over Northwestern, is that enough to put them into the tournament? Their top 25 record is 5-10-1.
Brady Vernon
2:30
As of right now, I believe Minnesota will get in. They have more Top 100 RPI wins than other bubble teams like Oregon State, Wichita State and Louisville. The Gophers RPI has them at 35 now which essentially gets you in as a tournament team. A win against Wisconsin, a team with a similar RPI and bubble position, in the Big Ten tournament would solidify Minnesota’s chances.
Bill Schiebel
2:31
If you had to pick 3 pitchers in the top 25 to get the final out of the world series, with the bases loaded in a 1 run game, who would it be? And conversely to that, which 3 hitters to get a hit to win the game?
Tara Henry
3:01
Corrick, Bahl, Faraimo. Alo, Sherrill, Gibson
Brady Vernon
2:32
In terms of three pitchers to get one out, I’d probably pick Megan Faraimo, Georgina Corrick, and Montana Fouts. For hitters, I’d take Jocelyn Alo, Addison Barnard, and the always clutch Sydney Sherrill.
Ballcoach15
2:32
Who does d1softball predict to be the 16 seeded teams ? and the top 8 ?
Brady Vernon
2:33
We have a lot of questions about the Top 16 seeds, everyone will have to wait till later in the week when the full bracketology is released
Tyler
2:33
With so many top level teams beating up on each other this season, I think will we see more upsets in regionals and supers than usual. Which team may not host but has a great chance of upsetting?
Brady Vernon
2:33
This is a cop out answer, but the group of SEC teams of LSU, Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky that are all on the hosting bubble. We’ve seen all four compete at the highest level, it’s just a consistency issue with all of them. One or two of them will host, but not all. If UCF doesn’t host and goes to Florida in a regional, I’d probably like their chances.
Jon V
2:33
Who are teams that could make a surprising run in the conference tournaments?
Brady Vernon
2:34
The SEC tournament seems wide open. I think Tennessee might be the biggest sleeper with its pitching depth and the ability to produce a good amount of offense. Arkansas and Alabama will be most people’s picks but we’ve seen the pitching for both be lackluster. The way Northwestern finished the season, and the fact that their staff behind Danielle Williams isn’t great, might mean a Big Ten team could steal a title. Don’t be shocked if Michigan’s pitching gets it done. For smaller conferences, the American should be fun with UCF, Wichita State, and USF. UCF has been the best team, but Wichita State’s offense can explode in any game and USF has Georgina Corrick, and that might be all you need. Watch for Texas State in the Sun Belt coming into the tournament with the longest active win streak.
Benjamin
2:36
Is a top 8 seed now out of the question for Northwestern?
Brady Vernon
2:37
I don’t think Northwestern is out of the Top 8 contention. I do believe the Wildcats need to win the Big Ten tournament to feel good about it. Luckily, the Big Ten has good RPI teams, Northwestern’s path to winning would include three wins versus the Top 50 RPI which would certainly help and end the season on a good note. They entered Monday’s updated RPI at 10, which the past few years, you need to have a RPI of 10 or better to get a Top 8 Seed. They’ll also need to hope that Oklahoma State, Florida or Tennessee don’t win their conference tournaments.
Brandon
2:38
Does UCLA have to win series this weekend to hold a top 8 seed after losing the series to ASU this past weekend?
Brady Vernon
2:38
No, I think they're fine regardless
Guest
2:38
Will ASU have the opportunity to enter the top 8 for tournament play?
Brady Vernon
2:38
For ASU to get into the Top 8 seed conversation, I think they have to sweep Washington. They'd have 10 wins versus the Top 25 RPI if that happened and would win the second-ranked RPI conference outright. Plus ending the season 5-1 against UCLA and Washington, would probably be the equivalent to winning a conference tournament. That’s the only way I see it for them.
Captain Crunch
2:39
Is there a chance that all 9 Pac 12 Teams can make the NCAA Tournament?
Brady Vernon
2:40
Yes, but no. There's a lot of bubble situations in the Pac, including Oregon State and Utah, which play each other this weekend. It's hard for me to see the loser of that series still get into the tournament.
Jeff
2:41
The Rebels are finally in the top 25. How well do you think Ole Miss will do in postseason? Are they getting hot at the right time?
Brady Vernon
2:42
Ole Miss will be a tougher two seed in a regional due to having a lot of contributors both on offense and in the circle. We'll see how hot Ole Miss truly is in the SEC tournament getting to play Georgia again after taking the series from the Bulldogs and a win would put them against Arkansas.
Brandon
2:43
Did ASU's win secure Coach Ford as Pac 12 coach of the year? Impressive season!
Brady Vernon
2:43
I don’t know how Trisha Ford doesn’t win coach of the year in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils were voted to finish fifth in the conference, and will finish no worse than second. If they take one game in Seattle to capture the auto bid and at least a share of the conference title there’s no question it should be her. Arizona State’s rise has to do a lot with the better pitching this season. And the pitching coach for the Sun Devils is? It’s Trisha Ford
Fred
2:44
If OU doesn't win the big 12 tourn. are they still a lock for #1 seed.
Brady Vernon
2:44
Yes
Hookedontx
2:44
Should Texas host a regional ?
Mike D
2:45
Can you share your thoughts on the chances of Texas hosing a regional after that horrible loss to Baylor? If they can at least make it to the final of the conf championship, presumably having to beat Ok St on the way, would this be enough to give them a shot? Or are they going to have to win the championship and/or have to rely on help from other teams on the bubble?
Brady Vernon
2:47
That's a great question, and personally I think for reasons that aren't about metrics and play, that they will. Texas has a good place to play and teams can drive there. However, the Longhorns resume isn't great despite the RPI of 15 this morning. They are lacking wins against the Top 50 RPI unlike other bubble hosts. When trying to think about the committee though, would they rather trust a host they already know or pick UCF a non-power five to host and have three hosts in Florida. I guess we'll see
Captain Crunch
2:47
Can UCF host a Regional if they win the American Athletic Conference Tournament? Also I think the American will be a 3 bid League with UCF, Wichita State and USF making it to the NCAA Tournament what do you think?
Brady Vernon
2:49
UCF probably needs to win the tournament to host. As a non-power five the Knights need to leave no doubt to the committee that they deserve to host because it'll be harder as a mention for me to believe they'll have three hosts in Florida. The RPI of 16 is good, but we've seen JMU have one of 13 and not host. But UCF has a much better resume than that JMU team.
Brandon
2:49
How much value will be placed on some of these bad run differential losses? Two examples from this past week that are fresh on my mind: Texas got smacked. NW dropped two with non competitive scores. Do these matter? Or is just a L in terms of RPI, and the team is just hit with the L to that specific team.
Brady Vernon
2:49
To the committee, it's just another loss on paper
R
2:49
There are 4-5 teams in contention grab the last couple Top 8 Seeds... as of right now, of those teams, who do you think has the better resume to grab those final spots + what does Arizona State's series win over UCLA do for the Sun Devils hosting chances?
Brady Vernon
2:51
Not going to spoil our bracket predictions, but Northwestern has made it very interesting for the Top 8 spots. I have a good feeling about Tennessee getting one at this moment as long as it wins a game in Gainesville. Oklahoma State winning the Big 12 tournament and getting that one win over OU would probably lock them into a spot. ASU will host but I just don't see them getting in the Top 8 without a sweep of Washington like I mentioned before.
Captain Crunch
2:53
Is the West Coast Conference a 2 bid league if LMU and BYU both win out?
Brady Vernon
2:54
Probably not. LMU would obviously get the auto bid, and BYU's RPI is lower than other bubble teams and over 30 of their wins are against the teams with a RPI over 100, which is not good.
Fred
2:54
I find it interesting that no one picked Jordy Bahl to get the last out (ans. for question above)
Brady Vernon
2:55
More of an age and experience factor that led into my choice, and we just don't see her throw a ton of stressful innings
Brandon
2:58
What is your world series championship matchup if you were forced to guess today?
Brady Vernon
2:58
Personally, my pick would be a rematch between OU and FSU
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