JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/17

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Matt

2:12

Hi Dan. I missed you. Your new spot is uncomfortable. Like the backseat of a Volkswagon.

Justino

2:12

If Heyward were a free agent this offseason instead of last, what contract would he be able to command? Does 4/$48 seem reasonable?

Dan Szymborski

2:12

I think he'd still get more than that.

Though he's not getting $180 million *this* offseason of course

Dan

2:12

Thank you for continuing to keep Zips chockablock with AA relievers. Now, fix Alex Verdugo's defensive rating. Do it!

Dan Szymborski

2:13

Paz, I know you'll get mad if I leave any reliever out!

Mike

2:13

Which AL teams do you see battling for the Wild Card spots in september?

Dan Szymborski

2:13

Same as last year. I think 2017 is going to look a lot like 2016 generally.

Now, not perfectly of course, but I think the best teams and the rebuilding teams are mostly the same, which leaves fewer surprises

Pip

2:13

What can the Nationals do to try and get on the same page as the Dodgers and Cubs? It seems clear they're greatest need right now is is depth. But does signing, lets say, Moss, Holland and maybe another reliever get them there?

Dan Szymborski

2:14

I don't think they're really *thyat* far behind.

Matt

2:14

Dan - regarding Chass. I generally agree with you on most topics (including, very much so, your views of vocally being an opponent of Chass - or whoever - as a check and balance to the system of journalism). But at the end of the day, doesn't your general belief in free thought have to lead you to accept Chass' (moronic) opinion? Or is the crux of your argument that that Chass - as an unethical/dishonest journalist - shouldn't have the right to vote in the first place?

Dan Szymborski

2:15

My belief in free thought leads me to accept Chass's *right* to make an opinion.

But I don't think he has a *right* to a BBWAA vote or really, BBWAA membership.

2:16

I'm not talking about dumb Hall of Fame votes either. He can vote for borderline Hall of Good/Very Good guys all he wants. But when he announced a couple years ago he was voting out of *spite* that was a very different thing.

Frankly, after the thoroughly dishonest hatchet job on Stan Musial on top of crap like backne, I felt he should have his Spink Award stripped and his BBWAA membership revoked. And I still do.

Rob

2:16

Do you think a Quintana deal gets down before the season starts?

Dan Szymborski

2:17

Yes. In the end, it's in the team's interest.

Dan

2:17

Also, why don't you call him Johan von Mieses. You are slipping. You need to give me some side coin to find all the academic jokes.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2:17

Can you make my team great again?

Dan Szymborski

2:17

Time and good moves can do that.

Phanatic

2:17

For a young team like the Phillies, many of whose players have very little ML service time, how do the ZiPS projections compare to more veteran teams? Is there historical data that shows how accurate ZiPS has been for young vs veteran teams? SSS obviously hurts projections, but how much?

Dan Szymborski

2:17

I've looked at *players* as a whole, but I haven't looked at young *teams* vs. bad *teams* in that context.

Kevin

2:19

Not being particular skilled in 'math', I'm wondering if there might be something to the idea that the calculation that clubs do to assess WAR might have increased the weighting of defense relative to offense. What do you think, could this have happened? Do you have any 'inside baseball' knowledge of this happening?

Dan Szymborski

2:19

I don't think this is happening.

Jordan (sicklikethewind)

2:19

Why is Artanis currently leading HOTS in win rate?

Dan Szymborski

2:20

(No lightning round today as I have to go pick up my mom and drive her to pick up her car so she can go to her 4 o clock doctor's appointment)

Artanis is?

That surprises me. Artanis is versatile, but meh crowd control. I would expect Artanis's win % to be high on *good* teams but not so much overall

G-Man

2:21

Was 2016 a new Dan Straily- great WHIP & decent K's or does regress to old Straily?

Dan Szymborski

2:21

He'll be OKish, but he's too easy to hit a homer off of

v2micca

2:21

If the Angels continue to follow their current trajectory, what season do they seriously contemplate trading Mike Trout? Do they stubbornly hold on until the 2020 Non-waiver Trade Deadline?

Dan Szymborski

2:21

Hanging onto stubbornly while the team wins 75 games a year is the worst thing for the Angels to do, so I expect them to do that.

ohioastrosfan

2:22

Can we PLEASEEEE have some analysis on each team's total player asset values? I would love to be able to look at how much each player is estimated to be worth and then look at team's as a whole. And this would really be helpful when talking about trades with people who don't know much about contracts.

Dan Szymborski

2:22

I usualyl do this kind of stuff as we get closer to the season.

Brad

2:22

What are your thoughts on recent beyond box score article about grading the projection systems?

Dan Szymborski

2:23

ZiPS had a below-average offensive year and above-average pitching year in my reviews (and a really excellent team year). I have issues with the methodology (seem to be some holes and I'm trying to figure out if and who the author centered the numbers), but I stay away from commenting on this issue generally as I have a real conflict of interest.

Jason

2:23

Which is worse -- Edgar not getting into the HOF because of the stupid writers or Schilling not getting in because of the stupid Schilling??

Dan Szymborski

2:23

Edgar's had a huge bump. I think he gets in now.

powder

2:23

What Separates O'Koyea Dickson from an MLB contributor?

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