JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:26

and I only use them, like college stats, when I basically *have* to project a dude

But as I've said before, there's always a decent chance that someone has figured out an approach that I have not

there are a lot of people out there who are both smarter than me and look at baseball

Insert Witty Name Here

12:26

the rule changes last year I think made the game more enjoyable. What other changes do you think are needed to keep fan interest going? Maybe not specifically tied to the actual game, but also aesthetics or game presentation?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

COMPULSORY BULLPEN CARTS

cool

5

EVERY STADIUM MUST HAVE AN ORGAN AND FULL-TIME ORGANIST

cool

5

CB BUCKNOR SHOT OUT FROM THE STADIUM BY TREBUCHET AT ALL-STAR GAME

12:28

I also think MLB should go fully crazy on Atlanta League in experimentation

they already do

but be even more ambitious

88 feet to first base

12:29

scoring on grounders with two outs not requiring batter to be safe at first (purely temporal)

Maybe it'll suck, but I want to try

12:30

I think people have a fair point that there's too much sameness in offenses

this stems on the fact that what makes a good offense is already *solved* in baseball

so UNsolve it!

JT

12:31

Zips seemed to love Noelvi Marte before last year. Now it…hates him? After a solid year? I’m confused

Dan Szymborski

12:31

League differences

he basically lost 30 wRC+ in promotion

which has reduced the short-term upside somewhat

12:33

This isn't 2005. The International League scored nearly six runs a game and the Southern League was over five

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

12:33

Is there an easy way to index a given offensive stat (OPS, wRC, etc.) to the position instead of all of MLB?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

Not REALLY

Dan

12:33

How long before someone currently in the Minor Leagues is considered the best player in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

I'll say five years

Greg

12:33

Today marks 3 weeks from the solstice, meaning we have survived the darkest 6 weeks of the year

Yo Soy La Manzana

12:34

Does ZiPS use WAR figures in its calculations at all? And, if so, does it use bWAR or fWAR?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

zWAR is kind of in the middle

Basically, ZiPS will evaluate how a pitcher has done relative to their defenses

and as the total batters faced, will credit the pitcher with more and more of their ERA/FIP gap

12:35

So if Tom Glavine pitched this year and picked up where he left off, it would be giving a WAR that is closer to RA9-WAR than WAR

But a rookie it'll be mostly FIP

But those only go in the team rundowns. They're centered on fWAR when they go on the site

12:36

Because the benefits of tinkering are likely outweighed by the cost of making things more confusing

People tend to underrate the value of clarity in metrics

Reed

12:36

When you post a table of ZiPS projections in an article (or provide for another author) can you please include an age column?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I could, though problem is, especially with batters, I'm already running against the 600 pixel max

Chris

12:37

You tweeted earlier about translating Teoscar's ZIPs from SEA to LAD needing to take into account the change in ball park. So would the same apply to Sale from BOS to ATL? (I.e., I shouldn't just take his numbers listed from the red sox projections?)

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Generally speaking, it's only a few runs, so you don't HAVE to obsess over it

12:38

it's just in the case of Teoscar, in addition to the bump, it made the team's roster construction make a lot more sense too

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