JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:38

It was like a 0.4 WAR projection improvement but the team depth chart went up like 1.1 or something

It's less than two weeks until these go live, so it's not long to wait!

No big signings

12:38

In your opinion, which orioles starter is most likely to hit his 80th percentile projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Grayson

Sleepless near Seattle

12:39

The Seattle lineup is really confusing to me. Do you think they are going to go after a big name at 3B or do you expect DiPoto to continue the split shuffle?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I suspect they're going to keep cobbling stuff together

12:39

Are the Brewers overrating the benefits of great defense, or does last year's record justify its genuine ability to offset poor hitting (presuming a team can't afford to buy both).

Dan Szymborski

12:39

Wel,l the pitching was quite good!

There are limits to how much defense can offset

Because you simply can't get a 40 run upgrade at defense anywhere

The Q

12:40

If you were Breslow would you prefer Snell or Montgomery?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Montgomery

laxtonto

12:40

How often do you use nonparmatric approaches vs classical approaches in your modeling? Doesn't the 40-80 scouting approach in essence try to force a Gausian distribution into the logic of baseball analysis when most extreme talent is probably closer to a Poisson or Exp?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I pretty much exclusively use nonparametric approaches

Refugee

12:41

Does ZiPS use pitch modeling stuff like Stuff+ or PitchingBot in its pitcher projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

It does not. I'm still figuring out how to construct one that results in increased predictive value

TomBruno23

12:41

If you were in a competitive eating contest what would you go-to food be for the win?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Milk

12:42

I've succeeded at gallon of milk challenge two times in three tries.

12:43

The guy on the right, Chris, did not

Insert Witty Name Here

12:43

A few years with gambling being legal, the commercials are getting to be a bit much. Especially considering how advertising can modify human behavior (meaning I don’t WANT to gamble, but with the non-stop showing of ads and odds, not everyone has impulse control), do you think it may be in the best interest of the population to ban gambling ads like they did with tobacco ads?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

It might be in the best interest of the population

However, I would be against it personally based on my first principles.

Marcos

12:43

Do you have a Tom Glavine 2024 projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Dear god no

laxtonto

12:44

Is there any heuristics that you use that you haven't been able to figure out why t hey work as a proxy?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I don't like using *anything* I don't understand

>this guy<

12:44

Dan if you are going to pitch things for the website, how about something that allows you to change ABs or IP to adjust projections for players? I am really thinking about for fantasy and auction calculator/ADP but maybe for everyone?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

I could

But if you guys have ideas you want to see, it might be best to DM me as I'll remember them

Reds trades

12:45

They haven’t happened yet but isn’t the deadline still a viable opportunity to rearrange the roster?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It is

Colton

12:45

Had a conversation with some friends the other day in regards to defense vs offense. One stood firm in "a run saved is the same as a run earned" and would not come off that notion. Any strong feelings yourself on that ideology? I agree with it in a vacuum but baseball isn't played in a vacuum and that's why offense is so coveted over defense in my opinion.

Dan Szymborski

12:45

I mean technically, it's accurate

Though offense is coveted over defense because of initiative

12:46

Adding a run more of offense is a more straightforward process than allowing one fewer run of defense, since there are interacting elements (pitcher, defense) at play

Insert Witty Name Here

12:46

Please describe in detail the unsuccessful milk challenge try.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I'm sorry, nothing gross was involved

I was just three-quarters of the way and my lower digestive system starting complaining, so I threw in the towel

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