JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/11/24

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Greg

12:47

"I don't like using *anything* I don't understand"

Dan Szymborski

12:47

Or at least tinker?

I mean, I couldn't rebuild a transmission, but I use a car with a transmission

but I wouldn't tinker with it

Insert Witty Name Here

12:47

What are your first principles?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I don't like getting into politics, but you can probably infer what my general philosophy is

Jeremy

12:48

Follow-up question re: rule changes: is there any other way besides sufficiently-frequent rule changes to keep baseball "unsolved"? That is, is there some combination of rules that would make it optimal to be different--to be zigging when others are zagging? I feel like the interplay of NFL offense and defense is kind of like this--that the predominant approaches change frequently, because different approaches have a rock-paper-scissors-type relationship with one another.

Dan Szymborski

12:48

The problem is that a lot of offense isn't so much choice but execution

Choices may be cyclical, but execution isn't

Though this may only make sense in MY head

Jeremy

12:48

Wait, aren't all players equally likely to hit their 80th percentile projection by definition? Don't they all have a 20% chance of hitting their 80th percentile projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I think I was being asked *about* the 80th percentile projections, not what ZiPS thinks is the most likely

in the latter case, it woudl be 20%

Quist

12:50

Of all American writers with the initials RC, which is your favorite? Raymond Carver, Raymond Chandler, or Robert Crumb

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Robert Creeley maybe?

12:51

I can't think of many I've read off hand

that have those exact initials lol

Imanaga

12:51

When a player like me is underpaid relative to projections, do you generally assume there is something on the medical report the general public isn't privy to?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

No, there are a lot of reasons for things. I don't like assuming

JB

12:51

how do you feel about framing being in /out of WAR ? It seems odd to give value on an event where the ball isn't put in play.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

It's a driver of bad/good counts. That has value

Jeremy

12:52

No, that makes sense in my head too.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

That could just mean you're as crazy as I am

Greg

12:52

My original comment on "I don't like using *anything* I don't understand" was "That's what she said!" so the direction that it went in was probably better anyway haha

laxtonto

12:52

How frequently do you apply clustering algorithms when looking at ways to segment players?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Not *too* often, depends on the task

Frank

12:53

Why didn’t the foot soldiers just take a gun and shoot the ninja turtles?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I'm sure that in the lore, the bullets would bounce off their turtle shells?

Marcos

12:53

What would you do if MLB gave you unilateral realignment powers,

Dan Szymborski

12:53

Two expansion teams and then four divisions of eight

Sir Nerdlington

12:53

The RSN situation seems like it's going to collide with the next CBA negotiation where owners won't have enough info to decide upon their collective position. Forget lockouts, are we going to see a full civil war over rev sharing amongst owners?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

It's very possible

TomBruno23

12:53

Finally got around the MLB doc, "Donny Baseball" man was that an hour well spent. Give me 80s/90s baseball docs all day, please. Thank you.

Colton

12:54

Reading through the Reds projections and I audibly cackled when I read the Pagan sentence, what on earth were they thinking signing him!

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Wait, did I make a joke unintentionally?

the person who asks the lunch question

12:54

what's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Pastitsio

laxtonto

12:54

How rare is a 115-loss team? How frequently does the system project an extreme outlier in losses? What was the most extreme you remember?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

It's pretty rare because the underlying ability implied by the spread of results suggests that pretty much everyone has an underlying prob of .400 to .600

12:56

The worst ZIPS team projected ever was 2019 Marlins at 56-106

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