JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/12/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:15

There's a real survivorship bias

Like, name all the siblings of players who ARENT baseball players

12:16

And by the time a projection system gets ahold of a sibling, they have a record to project off of

Romorr

12:16

2 years of Lopez, 4 years for Jesus and Rogers, and 6! for Cabrera. I know it depends on cost and all of that, but your preference for the Orioles? Cabrera is mine, but at 6 years of control, figuring out a trade proposal is annoying.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

Honestly, it depends on the return. I like Lopez though

12:17

And I don't want to trade off of too much prospect depth when the O's have so much payroll flexibility

Ben

12:17

Saw a post on Reddit pointing out that Giancarlo Stanton has put up the same WAR in his first 5 years as a Yankee that Heyward put up in his first 5 years as a Cub, with a lot of commenters saying that it shows how flawed WAR is. I find it interesting because it's kind of the two extremes of position player. Would you agree or disagree that they both put up similar production in those timeframes, or is WAR missing something?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

There are specific examples were WAR can miss something, but I don't see it here

12:19

He's a DH who isn't a star slugger who has missed nearly 40% of Yankees games in five years

jazzpaw

12:20

Happy New Year to you, Dan! Your content is always greatly appreciated here and anywhere. Do you fall into the camp that the rule changes involving the shift and base size are being overblown re: performance projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I don't think it's necessarily overblown

It's just extremely speculative

SC06

12:20

Why do you include both ERA+ and ERA- in your ZiPS Projections? Aren't they more or less the same thing?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

People demanded both lol

Hank

12:21

I’m excited about Spencer Strider this year. That is all.

A buccos fan

12:21

Why do fans always want to trade for players without giving anything up valuable? I saw a rangers fan wanted to trade for reynolds without giving up jung, leiter, white, foscue, rocker, or porter

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Yeah, not going to happen

InAAWeTrust

12:21

Does the Braves decision not to significantly upgrade left field make sense to you from a positional projection standpoint?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

It would certainly not have been my choice

Jim Leyland Palmer

12:22

Would you rather: have a cigarette with Jim Leyland, have a catch with Jim Palmer, or have Leland Palmer as your father?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Jim of course

TomBruno23

12:22

How about Matt Carpenter's Top 3 comps? I see you linked me to his Zips in the SD signing roundup.

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Player Year Bill Nicholson 1948-1951 Travis Hafner 2010-2013 Curtis Granderson 2015-2018 Matt Stairs 2000-2003 J.D. Drew 2008-2011 Jim Edmonds 2004-2007 Duke Snider 1959-1962 Curtis Granderson 2014-2017 Bill Nicholson 1947-1950 Eddie Mathews 1965-1968 Jim Dwyer 1984-1987 Mel Ott 1941-1944 Jim Hickman 1969-1972 Darren Daulton 1993-1996 Jim Hickman 1970-1973 Duke Snider 1960-1963 Frank Thomas 2002-2005 Ken Phelps 1987-1990 Sal Taormina 1956-1959 Mike Stanley 1997-2000 Ken Griffey 2001-2004 Woodie Held 1963-1966 Eddie Mathews 1964-1967 Cliff Johnson 1982-1985 Ken Phelps 1986-1989 Willie McCovey 1971-1974 Mel Ott 1943-1946 Rick Monday 1980-1983 Curtis Granderson 2013-2016 Jay Johnstone 1980-1983 Luke Scott 2010-2013 Cliff Johnson 1980-1983 Jay Buhner 1998-2001 Oscar Gamble 1982-1985 Jim Thome 2003-2006 Eric Thames 2017-2020 Willie McCovey 1972-1975 Jim Dwyer 1983-1986 Willie McCovey 1970-1973 Jeff Heath 1947-1950 Frank Thomas 20

12:24

Josh Willingham 2011-2014 Matthew Joyce 2017-2020 Russell Branyan 2009-2012 Don Mincher 1969-1972 Mike Stanley 1995-1998 Tim Salmon 2001-2004 Darryl Strawberry 1996-1999 Tim Salmon 2003-2006 David Justice 1998-2001 Darryl Strawberry 1995-1998 Matt Stairs 1999-2002 Willie McCovey 1973-1976 Matt Stairs 2002-2005 John Lowenstein 1981-1984 Mike Aldrete 1993-1996 Bill Nicholson 1946-1949 Jim Hickman 1971-1974 Matt Stairs 2001-2004 Bill White 1966-1969 Brian Daubach 2003-2006 J.D. Drew 2007-2010 Matt Stairs 2003-2006 Pat Burrell 2008-2011 Mike Stanley 1996-1999 Darrell Evans 1981-1984 Dolph Camilli 1940-1943 Bob Allison 1967-1970 Jason Giambi 2004-2007 Dom Dallessandro 1948-1951 Matthew Joyce 2016-2019 Jim Thome 2004-2007 Jim Dwyer 1985-1988 Jim Wynn 1974-1977 Jason Giambi 2006-2009 Duke Snider 1961-1964 Max West 1950-1953 Charlie Maxwell 1960-1963 Babe Barna 1949-1952 John Vander Wal 2000-2003 Dale Long 1957-1960 George Grantham 19

Lowther of the Hill People

12:24

Any moves for the O's you would recommend at this point in the offseason?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

Build a time machine and sign Rodon!

At this point, not much is exciting unless they pull off a trade

Ken

12:25

Does that 4.5 WAR projection for Harrison Bader seem bullish? I have done zero research

Dan Szymborski

12:25

ZiPS projects 3.2

12:26

I'm certainly not banking on a 29-year-old coming off injury to set a career high in PA by more than a hundred

but for the graphic, I go with whatever is on the DC

GBS42

12:26

Dave, did you celebrate the new year with some Skyline "chili?"

Dan Szymborski

12:26

There are so many things wrong about this question.

Deck

12:26

I'm curious, on zips projections, or top prospects, or any other team-by-team feature that's released over time, the Cardinals always seem to be one of the last teams released. Why is that? I'm not complaining. I assume it's either a coincidence or there's a rational reason. I just find it odd. It isn't only Fangraphs, but ESPN or any other baseball site. How do you determine your release schedule, or is it determined for you?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I roll them out by random selection

12:27

They were 13th last year

26 in 2021

12:30

then going back 24th, 18th, 8th, 21st

so been a bit unlucky

George

12:30

I failed my physical for the first two chats I tried to join today