JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/12/23

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Dan Szymborski

12:37

I think there's a good chance it causes some changes

Lowther of the Hill People

12:37

Padres' frontline looks formidable, especially once Tatis returns, but seem to lack depth. Would another semi-regular quality bat, another 5th starter type, or another mid-leverage reliever help more?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I'd love another starter

Lowther of the Hill People

12:37

Are you ready for Christmas? [sorry had this in the queue from the last chat]

Dan Szymborski

12:37

I apparently was not!

12:39

It did warm up to 4

But I decided the best time to find my warm hat, gloves, and snow shovel was when it was -11 degrees and the snow already happened

Guest

12:41

How do you see Nelson Cruz fitting into the Padres lineup? Do you think his vision issue caused his decline?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

It' spossible. He's also a million years old

Guest

12:41

Will you repubiyour chile recip

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Dan's chili, btw:

2 pounds of beef cubed
paste made from a good handful of pasilla chiles, guajillo chiles, a teaspoon of masa harina, and two of those cans of chipotle in adobo.
Salt, pepper, cumin.

Cook for a whole bunch of time at low until it's chili.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:42

Better shot at winning the World Series in the next three years: Padres or Mariners?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Padres

Daron

12:42

With the fences moving in at Comerica does that have any impact on ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

It might make ZiPS high, it might not. No impact

PewPewPew

12:43

All right all right all right… That’s what I love about those minor-league prospects. The older I get, they stay the same age…

Phil

12:43

If a middling prospect has a great season in LIDOM, how much does that change your estimation?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

Personally I find it something to consider, but the data is REALLY volatile

Daron

12:43

When are the ZiPS 3-year projections typically released?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

When the articles are done

SH, Jr.

12:43

Might be more of an article request, but … do projection systems have a value for “aggression vs passivity” for batters (apart from, e.g. P/PA)? If so, is there an ideal score for a given hitter profile — “dude’s got better strike zone judgment than he’s evidencing, he ought to dial the AgressoMeter back to 5,” etc?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

ZiPS does in characteristics when it baselines players

comish4lif

12:44

FIP doesn't account for hits allowed by pitchers.
Why is that no accounted for? ELI5

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Because the idea is to keep that out of the equation because of the volatility of BABIP

and focus on pitcher-specific tthings

Now, there are adjustments to make for that

12:45

For instance, ZiPS WAR will believe Tom Glavine's ERA over FIP more at the end of his career than the start

Devil Ray Jay Johnson

12:45

How about a Fangraphs Audio series of interviews with analytics pioneers like Voros or Fangraphs alum working for teams (avoiding obviously off topic subjects)?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

Ben's actually doing that!

Justin

12:46

Hi Dan. Do you have a favorite Star Trek episode?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

TOS? No

I'm going to get in trouble because I don't particularly care for TOS

12:47

or the first two seasons of TNG