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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/15/26

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Dan Szymborski

12:03

Chat time!

12:04

Well, a few minutes late as it woudln't take my password on this PC for some reason

Donald

12:04

What would ZiPS offer for Greenland

Dan Szymborski

12:05

As the creator is a Georgist, I'd feel conflicted about projecting anything for land acquisition!

Fella

12:06

Been reports that the Mets could pivot to the trade market for offense if they come up short on Tucker. Who would be some candidates? Nootbaar?

Dan Szymborski

12:07

He'd certainly be a possibility

12:08

There aren't a lot of great corner otufielders available for trade at the moment

Getting Duran woudl make sense, but the Red Sox appear to be asking for quite a lot

12:09

Guys like Wallner or Larnach aren't terribly exciting and I might just want to go with Benge at that point

12:10

They COULD look at Bellinger I guess

Or Grichuk or theoretically even talk with Winker again, but none of those other optiosn are exciting

12:10

So zips was fine with Paredes’ horrible batted ball numbers and pull-only approach until now, when he’s coming off his highest barrel and hard-hit% of his career? Not real fair for all of us counting on him in

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Yeah, I was a little surprised by that too

I haven't really ahd time to unwind that many individual projections and get to the core yet

Broken Bat

12:11

Now that Rockies Dollander has graduated to MLB but his potential is capped by home park, and SP a scarcity, what kind of return could Rockies get as position players? Top 50 prospect and maybe a 2-3 year MLB former that is still figuring it out? Example: McLain from Reds and a top 8 prospect from Reds farm? IMO, using Dollander as example his worth is higher to just about all other teams than Rockies. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

I don't think they'd get anywhere near that return.

12:12

Now, he had shockingly large home/road splits, but those are super noisy

Klubot3000

12:12

Just gobsmacked by that Ohtani projection. 53HR/29SB as a median? 83 ERA-, and I'm taking the over on 80 IP so a realistic chance to lead the Dodgers in pitching and hitting WAR? What are the chances he puts up a 14+ WAR season? Is it insane that the chances are genuinely not 0%???

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Don't have it open but that would be really really on the very low probability side

The tails are pretty one sided with a guy this good

War2D2

12:14

Hi Dan! Who do you (and ZiPS) like better long-term, Jaxon Wiggins or Cade Horton? Eric has 50fv’s on both of them, but they seem to go about it in different ways with Horton having a higher floor but more of a “Jameson Taillon” peak, and Wiggins having a higher ceiling but more of a bust/relief possibility. BP just put a “young Justin Verlander” comp on Wiggins’ heater so I’m obviously excited but trying to temper my hopes.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Both and me and ZiPS are kinda on the same page here. Horton's floor is likely MUCH higher, and that's probably more relevant for the Cubs than the riskier guy

12:15

His first-pitch strike numbers have been absolutely atrocious for the minors, even worse than the walk rate

Barry M.

12:15

What should I eat for lunch

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I don't have projections of your fridge!