JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:21

ZiPS does implicitly. Need more years of data to have good evidence of how to integrate it explicitly

drhotdog

12:21

is there something that happens in baseball that you find hard to quantify/properly evaluate in the ZiPS model?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

injuries for sure. ZiPS deals with them, but in a very generalized way

and I'm nto sure there's actually a solution

neuronic

12:21

Hey Dan! Eagerly looking to troll through the ZIPS 2025 predictions whenever they go live on the player pages. I've been reflecting on my own modeling mistakes recently, and was wondering what your biggest mistake was when developing ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Not learning Python or something!

I also spent way too much time chasing height/weight data for something useful but never really found anything

Lowetide

12:22

Based on the teams ZIPS has already publicly evaluated, Jackson Holliday ranks No. 8 among second basemen. I know this is entirely based on possible playing time, but assuming 125 game, in a league where you can keep a player for four years, should Holliday be considered a keeper?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I think so. Especially if you play OOTP!

Prospector

12:22

Who are the most underrated/overrated prospects right now?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Ask me on Prospect Week!

frogs38

12:23

Does James Wood batted ball profile ie. 55% GB rate limit his upside?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

It could limit his high-end power potential

but it's worth noting that it's a 2024-specific thing, so could at least theoretically be reversed

Burnes'd

12:23

Dan, what the heck is going on with the Orioles pitching staff? The payroll flexibility at the trading deadline won't matter if they are out of it by May 15.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I don't think that's the risk, the rotation isn't such that they're going to fall otu of the pennant race or something.

But it's concerning if injuries hit and in October

Jurickson Profar

12:24

Any reasonable reason to see if he could play the infield again? He'd be a good fit for the Yankees from a hitting perspective but I just can't see them running him out there in the outfield.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

It's always worth a spring training experiment, but I'm also one of the people who is far more vocal about teams doing crazy shit in the spring

Biscuit

12:24

How on earth have the Reds not signed Anthony Santander, and the Mariners Pete Alonso. Why are the easiest moves to see the ones that never get made?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

The first one is $

12:25

the second one is $$$$$. It's REALLY hard to recommend a team giving Alonso what he wants

12:26

ZiPS has scoop data in it's defensive runs, but even with a few extra runs a year, the numbers vs. projection don't line up

Now, as for the Reds, they SHOULD sign Santander

Broken Bat

12:26

Danny of no beans chilli fame.. is Langford of Rangers close to the Sept. guy who blew up or what that peak? How do you see Langford with the new depth of Ranger outfield that has a healthy Carter, Taveras, and now Peterson sharing Nina. Garcia of positions?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Somewhat in the middle. ZiPS remains positive about his future

EarthboundMisfit

12:27

Damn you Szymborski! I bought a 5-pack of that Buldak carbonara ramen at your suggestion. I need to buy some more.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

It's weird, but good, isn't it?

It's one of those things you read the package and it sounds awful. Then you think about it and it sounds awful. And then you taste it and it doesn't taste like carbonara at all. But somehow, it's still absolutely AMAZING

12:28