JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/16/25

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Dave

12:31

With the Mets and Pete seemingly coming to a deal would you spend the remaining 20M of last year's payroll on Tanner Scott or spread it out on a couple of bench/util guys?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'd actually try and go after Flaherty

shaner

12:31

Do you agree with the guy above that the Phillies window is about to slam shut?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Not SLAM shut, but it's closing; the key parts of their offense are largely on the downslope somewhere

The Phillies are like being in a swimming pool at 4 PM and you see some ominous clouds in the distance

12:33

You're GOING to have to get out at 8 PM for sure, but the weather also may take a sudden turn for the worse and the lifeguard is going to yell at you to get out when the first clap of thunder goes

Sasaki

12:33

This whole "recruiting" process is just for show to pretend I wasn't going to the Dodgers the whole time, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

While it's hard to completely get rid of that from my gut, nothing's happened yet, and I only know what I can prove

Guest

12:34

Hagen Danner was claimed by the Mariners off the waiver wire from Toronto. what is zips outlook?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Averageish reliever

Section 34

12:34

Hey Dan, give us your take on the bashing of Mike Elias' offseason. It's easy to say the Orioles should have signed Fried, Burnes or Snell, but none of them wanted to play in B-more (obviously they don't appreciate crabcakes). I'm an O's fan and wish they had added one of these guys but I don't mind their moves instead, and I don't want to see them overpay for a second-tier starter like Castillo from a prospect base that isn't as deep as last year.

What's your take?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

I'm not positive that none of them wanted to play in Baltimore

12:35

iIt's kinda hard to say, I'm disappointed about the lack of a significant pitcher add

and it's hard to say how much to believe that was Elias and how much just the O's still being closer to Angelos-spending than Cohen-spending

shaner

12:35

What is the percentile outcome needed for Volpe to be any good on offense? say 100 wRC+? Steamer has him at 101 and OOPSY has him at 94, but hes come nowhere close to that in 2 full seasons

Dan Szymborski

12:35

ZiPS has him at 97

12:36

I don't have wRC+ percentiles, just OPS+ and his 60th is 102, so probably something like 57th/58th percentile or so

tortycraig

12:38

Have you had to alter ZIPS at all to reflect (what I perceive, but could be wrong) the increasing trend of fast promotion for high-probability major leaguers through the minors? Is this hard to distinguish from COVID developmental aberrations?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I haven't found any recent trends that change things considerably

Guest

12:38

What do you think of the OOPSY projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

I haven't really dug into them. I have enough work to do calibrating and double-checking MY projections already!

Constantine if he was atheist

12:39

What's the dumbest thing you could base a projection system on that is also useful?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

pitcher wins?

Before you guys bite my head off

if you don't have GOOD stats, wins give you some kind of rough signal as to performance and innings

it's not good though

Maybe I didn't answer the question?

Guest

12:39

Is Mark Vientos really a 35 home run player?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

as an over/under, that'/s too aggressive for me

liptowi

12:40

Santander ends up in

Dan Szymborski

12:40

...the restroom all evening after winning the team's naga viper pepper challenge

liptowi

12:40

What does it take to get L. Castillo to Baltimore?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Have you give a real bat

shaner

12:40

In a projection system, how do you handle partial seasons at AA, AAA, MLB in the same season say? Or even a 2020 situation where some players might have looked totally different than 2019 and 2021 purely do to a sample. Do you weight by PAs?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

It's all translated to MLB

TooDamnTall

12:41

Who do you think you are?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

The evidence suggests that I am Daniel John Szymborski, born 6/19/78

12:42

Is there any team with more of a gap between ZiPS and Steamer than the Cubs? Outside of Tucker, ZiPS is higher on just about everyone.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Gonna have to wait until later in the offseason to gauge that

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:42

You've been developing ZiPS for an extended period of time, and you frequently say that much of the meat has already been taken off the bone. In retrospect, what were the most consequential pieces of meat you've taken off that particular femur?

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