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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/18/18
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Craig in CHI
2:20
Josh Harrison on the NYY fits.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
Not a bad contract if we're tlaking swaps
Gub Gub
2:20
Have you read Ready Player One?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
On my list but I have not yet
Blue Jay Matt
2:20
What is your snack of choice?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:20
cheese
Jay
2:20
How much stock should I put into batted ball data like quality of contact when trying to determine BABIP sustainability?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:21
It's pretty decent.  I've got the r^2 to babip up to around 0.6 in a season just from that kind of data
Guest
2:21
ZiPS is not a People Person
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:21
It's a PC
tacopocket
2:21
BJ answered this earlier in the week but I was surprised by his answers so I'm tossing it out to you:  5X5 keeper league with 12 teams where we get $300 at auction.  Which 5 do I keep:   Kershaw @ 63.  Rendon@17.  JDM@38.  Upton@23.  Alex wood@11.  story@11,  justin turner @23.   I think there is a huge dropoff after the top 4 starters (the other 3 are being kept) so I'm leaning towards keeping kershaw even though he's not a bargain.  i also love JDM and think the upton price is pretty good but that's a lot to spend on keepers.  I love woods price and story's potential is enticing.  Sorry for the long winded question but i've been agonizing about this for an unhealthy amount of time.  Part II (if i'm being greedy) --- would you deal alex wood for thames, margot or domingo Santana (all below $8)
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:21
It's still really hard to commit $63 for Kershaw
2:22
I wouldn't deal Wood for Margot.  I love Margot as an MLBer, but I don't think you're properly rewarded for what makes him good in fantasy
Estevao
2:22
Larry Walker's Career On the Road
271/377/487 .305 BABIP .216 ISO .373 wOBA 126 wRC+
Carlos Beltran's Career
279/350/486 .299 BABIP .207 ISO .358 wOBA 118 wRC+
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:22
Beltran's a CF, so that comparison makes Beltran look good.
JC
2:22
Are #1 comps unique per year - aka each ML player is 1:1 with a former player per year? if not, is there any specifc player that gets "#1 comped" the most?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:23
#1 comps aren't unique.  Even on teams you sometimes see the same guy twice!
You tend to see mediocre veterans who are similarly mediocre across the board come up a lot.
Like mediocre aging catchers get a lot of Chad Moeller and George Mitterwald.  A lot of meh centerfielders have Herm Winningham
2:24
Paul Sorrento and J.T. Snow come up a lot for mediocre first basemen
Estevao
2:24
http://maximustake23.blogspot.com/2017/12/al-mvp-again.html … …

Judge better in...

OBP .422 to .410
SLG .627 to .547
ISO .343 to .202
wOBA .430 to .405
wRC+ .173 to .160
WPA/LI 6.23 to 4.59
RE24 52.05 to 38.51
Bellagio
2:24
Bad news...we have you at 100,000-1 on going first.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
Good odds
Craig in CHI
2:24
When will we next have a Knuckleballer?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
When Wright pitches?
Hannah Hochevar
2:24
How was withdrawing their offer to Hosmer not a stipulation for Dave going to SD?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:24
heh
2:25
See, I'd be more likely to get Hosmer if I employed Dave or a clone of myself.  Would be fun to get the new empllyee really annoyed.
Hovey
2:25
Does Contreras career surpass Posey and Yadi at some point?  Which catcher out of Posey and Yadi rates higher in your opinion?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:25
I don't think so.  Posey
Morbo
2:25
In light of Tommy Pham's 5.9 war in roughly 80% of a season last year why are the projections so down on him, 3 war for a full season. I'm aware that is still very good.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:26
Even with vision changes and stuff, you have to take an outlier season not as a baseline.
Andy
2:26
Has the market come back to a point where the Royals could re-sign Hosmer, Moose, and Cain?  If they can get those 3 guys for around 50 mil combined per year, would it be worth it?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:26
Not really.  It might get them to 77 wins.
2:27
They had a 72-win pythag *with* everybody last season, including Vargas pretending to be Maddux for half a year.
Hannah Hochevar
2:27
Or was that his plan all along: hammer down Hosmer's value on FG so that he'd come cheaper once Dave got to SD?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:27
Sounds like the Padres are mainly bidding against themselves anyway
Bilz
2:27
what kind of package (without Tatis and Gore) would it take for the padres to get yelich? Urias Cal Margot +another or something of that nature ?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:27
That's probably and I'm not sure they ought to do it.
Margery
2:27
Do you think the distance between the basepaths (and from the mound to home plate) are ideal for baseball? Would you adjust them if you had the chance?
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