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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/18/18
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AvatarDan Szymborski
2:28
It's hard to change it up given how uniform it is through history
2:29
I don't think I'd do it since the downsides woud be greate rthan the benefits, but I wouldn't mind a preseason experiment of having smaller distances between bases, to make putting the ball in play relative to three true outcomes more beneficial
Though you may make strikeouts for pitchers even MORE valuable
hscer
2:29
crap, I was guest for a couple there
Gub Gub
2:29
Is the market for Carlos Gonzalez like the scene in Groundhog Day where Chris Elliot jumps up into the bachelor auction?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:29
heh
Jethro
2:29
Is grabbing Jorge Polanco later in a draft worth the risk vs. overdrafting a SS like Xander Bogaerts?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:30
I think so, though the exact names depends on format
Tomahawk chop
2:30
How many of the top-tiered free agents are left unsigned come spring training?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:30
I think there will be a lot
Metlover
2:30
Sorry! Meant Adrian Gonzalez
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:30
Meh, I think he's done.  Even in 2016, he was buoyed by an unusally good BABIP for him
Dicky Henderson
2:30
what is hosmer worth? 5/100?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:30
To the right team in contention, I think that's not a crazy number
Estevao
2:30
The San Diego Padres are a fascinating case, how many times do you see a team hire a GM, have such GM beginning his tenure by making splashy moves going all in, and in an incredibly short period of time seeing that plan fail epically, and despite it, keeping that General Manager to completely rebuild the farm system that he himself destroyed, the whole situation is very uncommon, and I did not even mention the bad reputation Preller has around the league.
http://maximustake23.blogspot.com.br/2018/01/the-sd-padres-and-head-sc... …
Blue Jay Matt
2:31
Obligatory trade speculation - Bo Bichette for Christian Yelich, who says no and which side to do you prefer?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:31
I think the BLue Jays do
I might actually consider it if I'm hte Jays
Scottie
2:31
In an era where just about every FO leans heavily on advanced metrics, which is the most tradtional FO in baseball?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:31
Marlins
Slapshot
2:31
Given how some teams seem to be blowing things up (Pirates, Marlins) in a big way or are consolidating talent (NYY, Astros), do you have a personal, non ZiPS driven over/under on the number of teams that lose more than 100 games, or win more than 100 games?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:31
2.  100 wins is still hard.
John
2:31
Would you rather draft Joey Gallo or Michael Conforto in a keeper league?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:32
Gallo simply because Conforto has short-term risk due to injury
THE Average Sports Fan
2:32
Should small-mid market teams just sell out during their window of contention?  It seems like the Pirates didn't do that and now they are going to stink anyway, without the payoff from their good run.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:32
I felt when they were pushing, they should have pushed a little more aggressively
2:33
They tried too hard to shift towards win-now *and* win-later and I think got caught between the two.  And this magnified with bad luck things like Taillon setbacks and Kang
Carl
2:33
Is McMahon going to run with the Rockies 1B job?  Is he going t be awesome if he does?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:33
He very likely could.  I dont' like him as much as a 1B>
ZiPS has him at 100 OPS+.  THat's solid at other positions he can play.  But at 1B, it's a who cares
William
2:34
What makes someone "break the mold" of projections as regression machines? Often, we regress back toward a mean, but sometimes players are projected to be better.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:34
Depends *how* they break th emold
William
2:34
Is the projection of, say, wrc+ for a player to be treated as the mean with a normal curve of possible outcomes surrounding it?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:34
No.  There are no normal curves involved.
2:35
ZiPS is a non-parametric model.  It generates player curves on the fly
Art Vandelay
2:35
do you have a projection for Darvish? I know he wasn't with the Dodgers so I probably just missed it.
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:35
It was with the DOdgers
Iordan
2:35
How quickly would a team start to fail if you replaced their GM with a layman?
AvatarDan Szymborski
2:35
I think it would take a couple of years really until the lack of organizational expertise and the less-public parts of the job start being a problem
Bebop
2:35
do you think the Cubs should prioritize signing Hendricks and Contreras to long term extensions?
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