JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/20/22

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/20/22

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Dan Szymborski

12:39

Using the depth chart playing time is easier

12:40

But how you look at an issue and what will happen will differ from how other people see it!

Lars

12:40

Are ZIPS projections adjusted if a player is surrounded by a new coaching staff and a change to approach/mechanics is made? How much of a sample size is needed to make any such changes, if any?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

It will if there's as change in stat.

As for sample size, it's not a linear thing.

There's no X PA threshold that crosses that suddenly changes everything.

It's bayesian inference!

Caught looking

12:41

Do you see ZIPS changing much if electronic strike zone is implemented? Either in terms of offense or catcher defensive metrics?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Sure, though the consequences that actually happen are hard to tell!

LB

12:41

I watch Xander Bogaerts a lot and just don't see a horrible defensive SS. Just seems to be average at everything on the D side. Am i wrong?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

I don't think he's HORRIBLE.

But there are very high standards at the position

Szymbolism

12:41

You haven't fooled me, Dan. I know you've been behind the lockout the whole time. You've just been waiting for the right moment to strike so that ZIPS fueled metaverse Scabs can replace the real players. And where does that leave the "benevolent creator?" Enriching himself in low level arbitration court. Let's talk more about this next chat

Guest

12:42

YT recommended your yordano ventura WWE video a few weeks back, classic. how many baseball personalities have you digitally created in the WWE universe?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

Probably 40-50?

12:43

actually more than that

12:45

Like for WWE2K18, here's a selection of stuff I have

Phil

12:46

I am scared to contemplate a universe in which Dan Szymborski is capable of single-handedly causing a work stoppage in a $10-billion industry. I just don't know that I trust you to use your power only for good, if you have that much. Draconian chili rules will be just the beginning.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Is the broccoli industry $10 billion? I"d like to stop that

laughing

1

Cave Dameron

12:46

Dan, I have just finished running my CoOL projections for the year and they have you projected as Very Cool. However, Steamer only has you projected as Pretty Cool. Why do you think that Steamer seems to undervalue your coolness, despite you consistently meeting (and sometimes exceeding) your projected level of cool?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Obesity?

Dan not Symborski

12:46

If the Mets could only add one more player, who would you add, Carlos Rodón or Kris Bryant?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

Rodon

Kristaps Porzingis

12:47

How do you think someone my size(7’2 with a 7’4 wing span) would fair in baseball? Would I be limited to Pitching based on my size or would it be possible to be a good outfielder?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

The strike zone would be massive

I'm not sure someone with a 7'4 wingspan could really get the bat in the sweet spot over the plate super well

Might need to be a pitcher

LB

12:47

Adam Duvall got a projection of +9 in RF, I'm guessing that's good enough for an EX rating? Is that the highest of any OF(along with Mookie and Judge and maybe others)?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

It depends, I don't know offhand what % of that is arm, range, error rating

TomBruno23

12:48

Ozuna and Bauer deserve starting spots on in the 2022 California Penal League and nothing else.

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I think Ozuna would have to be in the Georgia penal league, I don't see CA having jurisdiction!

RonaldAcuna

12:49

Are there any players that you think would be in jeopardy of not reaching "important" HoF milestones with the 2020 season shortened and the 2022 potentially being shortened by a couple months? Am I one of those players?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I actually did a piece about that in 2020!

We'll see how serious a 2022 stoppage is in terms of games

Guest

12:50

Dan: season after season I'm expecting some rebuilds to work, but those not happen very often and I think patience (my patience) is a tool to develop.

MM

12:50

Seiya Suzuki had his signing window frozen. Once the lockout is over, he will have 20 days to come to terms with a team or decide to go back to the NPB. What % chance are you giving him to join the MLB? From what I have seen, he finds it clumsy the way the player's union and owners have handled this situation so far.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

I think it's nearly certain he'll sign with MLB unless it drags on too long that he has to can the idea for 2022

Guest

12:50

Can you tell me one thing that surprised you about the Phillies' ZIPS projections for the year?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

Yes, I think I can.

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