JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/20/22

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Moog Powell

12:50

When projecting players who have little to know MLB data, do you only use data from MiLB/Foreign League/Amateur level, etc. or do you incorporate scouting grades into the equation?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I used to have a scouting report parser, but the probabilistic method with Gameday I developed is more predictive and a lot less work

ALBeast

12:51

Local media is reporting that the sister-city plan was killed by MLB, and Stu has a conference scheduled for the media at 1...

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I think it was unworkable

Raises hand

12:51

I got the Rodney Dangerfield/Back to School reference. My doctor said I have 6 months to live, I said I want a 2nd opinion, he says ok you're ugly too.

Dan Szymborski

12:52

My doctor said I'm fat and I said hey, doctor, I want a second opinion! He said that I was at risk for developing diabetes and cardiovascular disease. He didn't have much of a sense of humor.

Phil

12:52

Have you noticed a change to the way people interact with you about Zips since gambling was legalized?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Not really

Because...well...people who wanted to bed were mostly betting

Joe

12:52

Did the Orioles ruin Camden for a purpose, or will they continue their 40 year streak of being awful at pitching development and now just have a bigger, worse looking park?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I doubt it has that much of an effect, or that it will ruin Camden

I tend to think teams are best served by having parks that are as neutral as possible

Sam Huffs Mom

12:53

Why the massive drop-off in my boys projection?

Dan Szymborski

12:55

Guest

12:55

I'm glad it's not officially 1/20/21 as your chat is entitled. I don't want to live through that year again.

Dan Szymborski

12:55

oh dangit!

Boris

12:55

Do you ever stop to think about how cool it is that modern sports have driven an entire generation of students to pursue data science?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I think it is pretty cool!

I have a great time talking to students who got interested because of analytics.

L Scott

12:56

True or false: Of all of the teams built to "win now", the LAA are the team most in need of at least 1 top end SP. If true, do you see them swinging a deal with OAK? Looking at Thor and Ohtani at the top of the projections is not very comforting considering the limited IP ceiling for both.

Dan Szymborski

12:56

I'd say True

but I don't see a deal with oakland

Hugh Jazz

12:58

What's the projection for Mark Melancon? He signed with Arizona before you released those projections but for some reason he wasn't included.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

Cynthia

12:58

Were you surprised by Ronald Acuna's projection? It seems like many group him with the other young stars like Soto and Tatis, yet his project is a good amount behind them.

Dan Szymborski

12:58

ZiPS is aware of the injury.

And with another 100 PA, that's like a six WAR projection still

Sox Fan

12:59

Could you run projections for Seiya Suzuki at a few of the different teams that he has been rumored to potentially end up with to give us an idea of what we might see?

Dan Szymborski

12:59

It's one of the things I'll probably do when/if the offseason resumes

Greg

12:59

> Asking a projection system what the Brewers (or any team) intends to do strikes me as a rather pointless use of a projection system. - How is that pointless? It's not asking it to project what a team intends to do but more so what volume to expect out of players that the team has put together.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

That necessarily involves projecting what a team intends to do.

I want a projection system to sort through large amounts of data.

1:00

I don't want a projection system to make a guess about what the Braves see as the timeframe for Shea Langeliers.

*I* can do that way better.

(and as such, the team projections from ZiPS reflects my beliefs about team plans)

Key Flaw

1:00

Have you had Tajin seasoning? Amazon accidentally sent me some (and shoelaces) when I ordered a book, and it is great on macaroni and cheese.

Dan Szymborski

1:01

I have, but the lime means I don't use it as widely as some other things

Phil

1:01

Shouldn't a likelier concern about the lockout affecting HOF chances is more that a short spring training/quick ramp-up will lead to injuries, particularly for pitchers, rather than milestones?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

Yeah, but I think the question is because this is more in a projection system's purview

TomBruno23

1:01

I am a vegan by choice (yes, one of those) and the best gift I receive every year on my birthday from my wife is a sack of impossible sliders from Whiteys.

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