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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/21/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:02

And hello happy chatters, for this edition of SzymChat that appeared on the front page!

12:03

Assuming the Mets have about $25m to spend, how would you distribute that money to improve the roster?

Dan Szymborski

12:04

I think I'd sign Justin Turner for $10 million and pay myself $15 million. It improves the roster.

Dan

12:04

Finally got on for one of your chats this year...

Can you do the ZiPS "what-if" I've been nagging you about for a decade, Bonds if he hadn't been a victim of collusion in '07?

I'm guessing ~50 more homers, ~135 OPS+ in three seasons.

Dan Szymborski

12:04

It's only like the third one!

12:05

He *was* quite old at this point so even if he hadn't declined, it was going to happen. I can to a Time Warp on tha tthough.

Dan

12:05

Has ZiPS included indy leagues ever in a projection for a player and/or have rough equivalent levels for different indy leagues?

What's the lowest level of baseball Zips has worked with?

Dan Szymborski

12:05

Yes. They're very low.

I can do college stats, but I only do it if I MUST

like when Weeks

or that Reds reliever whose name completely escapes me at hte moment

12:06

RYAN WAGNER!

(This was pre-official ZiPS, but I was still running these)

Doug

12:07

How much should we read in to Brand Hand’s velo dip? Still was great last year of course.

Dan Szymborski

12:08

It's a concern, especially as it was the second year in a row. What's a REALLY big concern is the fact that you pair that with the fact that he very suddenly lost a quarter of his swinging strikes in one fell swoop

Cave Dameron

12:08

Dan, why are you so very cool? Thank you!

Dan Szymborski

12:08

I keep the thermostat set fairly low and usually have a window cracked even in the winter when I sleep.

12:09

My normal body temperature is just a hair above 97, but that's genetic; my mom, sister and my mom's father have the same.

(Well, had in the case of my grandfather, his is obviously quite low now)

12:10

I once asked him how long his body temperature was just above 96. He replied "I was farther from being dead 30 years ago."

Joe

12:10

How close does Musgrove get the Padres to the Dodgers in your projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Neck-and-neck; it really comes down to assumptions.

Musgrove isn't a huge bump simply because the padres were already so good

12:11

Unless you're a first baseman, you're not even replacing below-average innings/PAs when you join the Padres now.

Guest

12:11

If you were Ross Atkins what moves would you make to make an already good offseason great?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

BAUER

12:12

And yeah, there are some headaches, but it's not like you can call the ace pitcher factory and ask them "hey, do you have this in not-obnoxious-on-social-media?"

Twins front office

12:12

JA Happ for $8M. Do you like the deal? What can we expect from Happ (performance in playoffs, leadership, etc.)??

Dan Szymborski

12:12

It's reasonable. He's just there to eat some innings and to store milk properly in MERKAN GALLON CONTAINERS not those Canuck bags. He can do both.

Mike

12:12

Can the Angels have a successful offseason without signing Bauer?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I can have a successful portfolio if I don't win Mega Millions. But danged if it's easier if I do!

Kyler

12:13

Who is the Braves opening day LF? Surely they won't bring back Markakis haha. Adam Duvall? Marcell Ozuna? lol. Someone else?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

The REALLY ought to bring back Ozuna

Roger

12:13

What is your pick for the most likely World Series matchup?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I'm going to say Padres/Yankees. Dodgers/Yankees is pretty much equally as likely, but I said it last year and I don't like doing reruns if I can avoid it

Slapshot

12:14

What chances would you give the NL having a DH in play for 2021? Along those lines, do you think the DH in the NL should become a permanent thing after last year's experiment, or should it stay a league where pitchers get to hit?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

10%. Something would have to happen quickly.

12:15

Bu tI do think that it'll happen permanently.

Ben

12:15

If a batter literally never swung at a pitch (and opposing pitchers knew this and tried to always thrown down the middle of the strike zone), how often do you think they would walk? And are there any pitchers (like Johnny Cueto with his career .103/.128/.105 slash line) would would have been better off with this approach?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I think in this particular scenario, size matters.

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