JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/23/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:12

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:13

Who needs a Flaherty the most?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

Cubs, Orioles, maybe Giants

Ben VV

12:14

What are your thoughts on Peraulta, Woodruff, Civale, Cortez and Myers. Rotation for the Brewers? Where does this rank in NL Central? NL?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

ZiPS has them basically a tie with the Pirates

at first

New and Former Mets

12:14

And are you more or less bullish than ZIPS on PCA. I want him to go 15/40/.250. Am I nuts?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

less only because it's a really aggressive projection

Sirras

12:14

In your personal life, are you a high risk high reward person or do you prefer a lower risk lower reward approach. What about in baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

I am not a gambling type

phillycheese

12:14

Have you looked at how WAR projections for pitchers are distributed? Guessing that Innings Pitched are bimodally distributed due to high injury risk at start of year

Dan Szymborski

12:15

yeah, for an established starting pitcher, 0 innings is more likely than 10

I am the Apple

12:15

Could we ever get the pitcher counterpart to the position players’ top 20 in career projected WAR?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

at some point for sure!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:15

Depth Charts say the Mets are the team to beat in the NL West???

Dan Szymborski

12:15

I'm pretty sure they won't win the NL West

12:16

if we're talking East, Steamer seems to think so, but ZiPS still moderately prefers Phillies and Braves

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:16

Northern California's not nearly as cold, Dan.

Dan Szymborski

12:16

It's actually all the way up to 27 now. Taking the trash down to the curb yesterday at 15 degrees felt almost balmy

12:17

at -9 degrees, the furnace -- which isn't that old, it's a five-year-old Trane two-stage furnace -- starts to lose a couple degrees from its target temperature of 70

Nervous Flyball Pitcher

12:18

What does ZiPS project as a free agent contract for Cedric Mullins in 2026? Assuming he has the average projected 2025.

Dan Szymborski

12:18

The scenario isn't as easy to do on the fly in 10 seconds, but I can give you the projected contract right now

victoria

12:19

will you please do a bregman destination poll

Dan Szymborski

12:19

sure

12:22

Where Will Alex Bregman end up?

Detroit Tigers (24.2% | 22 votes)

Boston Red Sox (15.4% | 14 votes)

Vat of Breggy Bomb Salsa (3.3% | 3 votes)

World's Largest Pillow Fort (9.9% | 9 votes)

Crafting Class in a Haunted Mansion (6.6% | 6 votes)

Dubuque for Some Random Reason (6.6% | 6 votes)

Trapped in an Oil Painting (18.7% | 17 votes)

That Episode of MacGyver With the Over-the-Top Anti-Drug Message (15.4% | 14 votes)

Total Votes: 91

victoria

12:22

it kind of seems like the DBacks are running out of time to trade Montgomery, right? Teams always need pitching but it doesn't seem like Arizona is going to eat that much money.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

I think he stays in Arizona

Rapping Paul Sewald

12:22

My name is Paul Sewald and I'm here to say/middle up fastballs in the low nineties all day/ Recent history says I should be pretty mid / will Cleveland's pitching lab put the end to my skid?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

Not sure, but it is troubling how hittable he's become

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:24

If you created a Frankenstein team from the other 4 teams in the NL West, how often would they beat the Dodgers in that division?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I can't do THAT off the cuff for sure!

Bob

12:24

When you give out ZiPS contract predictions I get how it comes up with the money given the years, but how does it pick the number of years?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Either an algorithm it has or I simply tell it

Jonathan

12:24

If you were tasked with modernizing WAR, how might you go about doing it

Dan Szymborski

12:25

If I were the WAR Dictator, there are a lot of things I'd do

An auto-calibrating method for positional value based on the previous 20 years or so

(with DH matching 1B)

Pinch-hit appearances separated as a unique position with a much lower replacement level

12:26

Giving or taking a few extra runs from pitchers based on their career ERA relative to FIP and their team defenses (zWAR already does this)

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