JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/23/25

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/23/25

powered by

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Guest

12:27

hey dan, thx for chat! looking over Minnesota players last season, at first look, it appears like Willi Castro had a good season with 3.1 WAR. but after digging into the numbers they look pretty bleak all around. He's about an average offensive player and defensively, while he plays a lot of positions, he plays none of them well except 3B. He avoided playing 1B and DH which helped his positional value of the WAR component. Most of his value comes from the replacement and league value of WAR. He gets a lift on his SS rating of WAR with 3 OAA while his UZR is -9.5, why is there such a discrepancy between these values? Is it fair to say WAR in this case over inflates the true value of Castro and he merely accumulated a lot of at bats although not that impactful?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Defense is very tricky to measure as the difference is not a lot of plays and there's an estimate of guesstimation since you're not really counting events, you're counting events that SHOULD HAVE or SHOULD NOT HAVE happened

Datum

12:27

Is ZiPS looking mostly at minor league results for hitters or is it more underlying metrics like EVs, LAs, Plate discipline, contact?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

There are underlying metrics, more for AAA because statcast

12:28

But I have a lot of data in there

for example, I have coordinate data of every ball hit in the minors

Also a Dan

12:28

Hi Dan, according to ZIPS would the Astros bebetter with the current team or would they be better with Arenado at 3B and Paredes at 1st and no Walker?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

ZiPS slightly prefers the current (I alreaydy looked at it)

Roberto Beers

12:28

A man a dan a winterchat ahcretniwanadanama

ZiPS has Bailey projected for 17 defensive runs, no other player within 5 runs of him thus far. In the Steamer/OOPSY projections, there are four (4!) catchers projected for more defensive runs with similar playing time. Can you speculate why this is? Do they just not include framing runs? Did I answer my own question?

Dan Szymborski

12:28

I totally keep telling you guys, but tehse questions are hard to answer because I don't own or operate Steamer or OOPSY

MikeDW

12:29

Why are there no ZIPS for Jeferons Quero? I know he was hurt all of last year, but there are ZIPS for other players that were in similar spot. He also has a much higher chance of seeing MBL in 2025 than others that have a projection.

Dan Szymborski

12:29

He's actually in there,I just didn't add him to the db until someone noted I missed him

12:30

On Mullins, ZiPS says 4/71

Johnny5Alive

12:30

Are the Mets better off in 2025 with Alonso at first and vientos at 3rd, or are you buying vientos to first and Baty at third as viable, especially for a team with real world series aspirations

Dan Szymborski

12:31

If you're just talking WINS, then Alonso/Vientos, but given the salaries that it seems to take to keep Alonso, overall Vientos/Baty

Senseandrew

12:31

Hi Dan. No question. Just wanted to express my gratitude for your work here. You and the others at FG are the best! Cheers!

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Thanks!

Jeff in Jersey

12:32

Does ZIPS think Pete Alonso is declining quickly? Feels like the Mets do.

Dan Szymborski

12:33

ZiPS seems to agree with how the Mets feel these days: it would offer him 3/65 or 4/74

Jeremy

12:33

Surely the Phillies should've done something more/different to address their outfield, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

It could have been more ambitious, but it's not the worst thing ever

victoria

12:33

o/u 250 MLB PAs for Tim Anderson in Anaheim this year?

peanut-gallery

1

Dan Szymborski

12:33

under

Henry Dodger

12:33

Are you surprised all the projection systems love deGrom again even after the second TJ?

Dan Szymborski

12:33

no

There's a lot of penalty you can give him

Judge

12:33

Where would you rank Judges last 3 years among offensive 3 year runs?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

It's definitely one of the top three ever, but I don't know offhand what number I'd rank it as

jillybohnson

12:34

Does ZiPS have any opinion on what a hypothetical Kyle Tucker extension would look like?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

6/171 which I'm not sure gets the job done

Henry Dodger

12:34

Sean Manaea and Nate Eovaldi got the same 3/75 contract. Which pitcher would you rather have on those terms?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

Eovaldi

Henry Dodger

12:34

David Stearns is trying to avoid signing Pete Alonso without offending him or the fan base, yes?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

That's my guess

Guest

12:35

I was reading the comments in Baumann's "Hall of Very Good" article, and someone brought up that Jimmy Rollins was actually a below average hitter for his career. I couldn't believe it, I had to look it up, but it's true! Did you know? Like, he only had one season with a wRC+ over 105. My mind is blown.

Colton

12:35

Do you have a favorite early hit from ZiPS? I remember ZiPS was the first projection system that was super in on Mookie before the breakout but is there a different player that you're more impressed with by chance?

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Bieber for sure

ZiPS had him like 15th in WAR the year he broke out

The Gyorko Store Called

12:36

If ZiPS became sentient for two minutes, what do you think are the three things it would tell you?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

I imagine it woudl question the nature of its existence

Connecting…

Register

Message History

On Off

On Off

On Off

On Off

Your current subscriptions

None

Register now to continue managing your subscriptions

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Dan Szymborski hosts a chat