JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/23/25

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Kappy III

12:50

Kristian Campbell's ceiling: ________

Dan Szymborski

12:51

drywall

Quarantino Martinez

12:51

Are the Orioles going to keep sitting on their hands this off season? I like the small additions, but none improves on a player lost let alone on the 2024 overall level.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

I suspect that's about right

Kappy III

12:51

Kristian Campbell's ceiling: ________ Kristian Campbell's floor: ________ (compare to current/former MLB player)

Dan Szymborski

12:51

drywall, probably hardwood floors, as current/former MLB players can afford to have nice wood

TooDamnTall

12:52

On a scale from pancakes to whale sharks, how much better is ZIPS today they when it debuted?

Dan Szymborski

12:52

maple syrup

NL West Fan

12:52

C Blake Sabol, 1B Manny Machado (cheating a bit), 2B Ketel Marte, SS Willy Adames, 3B Matt Chapman, LF Corbin Carroll, CF Brentan Doyle, RF Fernando Tatis Jr., DH Jackson Merrill. The Dodgers are good but I think this is NL Rest lineup is better

Dan Szymborski

12:53

wait, why are you playing Sabol over Bailey?

Clovis I

12:53

Which visual art would you most happily adopt as a hobby once ZiPS becomes self sufficient and moves out of the house? Architecture? Scuplture? Oil painting?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

oh dear god, none of them

12:54

I basically draw and paint like a five-year-old

with unlimited free time, I'd probably play a lot more piano

12:57

Especially before arthritis further erodes my fingers

1:00

I'm working on Liszt's Hungarian Rhapsody No. 15 (the Rakoczy march one), but I just don't have unlimiated hours to just punch out the technical issues as much as I'd love to

1:01

(Sorry, door, I'll stay a few more minutes)

War2d2

1:01

Hey Dan! You said Paredes was particularly valuable in Houston. Do you have his (and Tucker’s) ZiPS for if they stayed where they were before the trade?

Dan Szymborski

1:01

I have tucker slightly beter, but Paredes was like a 2.9 WAR

Quarantino Martinez

1:01

PS: I’m not sure if they came through, but I just uploaded my Cito Sucks shirt from the ASG where he kept Mussina on the bench. I appreciated the mention in the Santander column.

The Gyorko Store Called

1:02

You have to compete in the Cannonball Run with one current MLB player. Based solely on vibes, who do you pick?

Dan Szymborski

1:02

I think Brett Phillips might be the most fun

1:03

Votto maybe, but I guess he doesn't count now

Colton

1:03

Sabol was traded to Boston a couple weeks ago

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I totally forgot! lol

(though ZiPS knwos)

But why over bailey?

CaptainJamesHook

1:04

How much did Schwellenbach's season alter his long term ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Quite a lot, he's one of the big gamers

Bighouselawdawg

1:04

Seriously, Dan, Been doing FBB over 25 yrs. Not bragging just fact. Given old and new analytics, I truly believe ranking mid-tier SP's 20-60 is a dart board game. Please don't be insulted, I believe you try hard at these rankings, The "eye-ball test" by around May 15th I believe is most accurate. Too late for drafts. Truly, what do you think of this? PS: Your an amusing guy live!

Dan Szymborski

1:04

I don't really rank them, they're ranked by a large set of algorithms

Pat

1:05

Is there a universal age you use to factor in declining player performance or does it vary by position?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

no, yes

Ceddy B Ready

1:05

Rooker on the Run would be a good time.

Clovis I

1:05

But Dan, imagine an AI that is trained ONLY on your oil paintings. You could generate literal mayhem.

Blake Sabol Fan

1:05

Sabol over Bailey was a name brain fart that I will now own

Martin

1:05

Thoughts on the Santander signing? As a Jays fan am I wrong to be kind of underwhelmed?

Dan Szymborski

1:05

I wrote a whole piece with my thoughts!

1:06

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-finally-get-a-free-agent-slu...

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