JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat 1/23/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:36

or ask why I keep the creator trapped in an oubliette under my backyard shed

Pop

12:36

Now that the Padres lost out on Roki, is it in their best interest to keep Cease?

Dan Szymborski

12:36

yes

Alec

12:37

Who are you more optimistic on to get closest to reach their potential as a prospect - Brett Baty or Curtis Mead?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

Mead maybe?

Ceddy B Ready

12:37

This guy thinks you can predict my contract without seeing my amazing 2025 season! Crazy sauce!

Guest

12:37

What percentile outcome would you give yourself on your life so far based upon the criteria that are most important to you?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

to ME? 80th

12:38

But I'm not particularly ambitious in some things

I think in big picture world, maybe 30th?

12:41

I think bigger things were considered for me generally as I was a very smart little kid, like I'd do something to improve the world or something. But truth is, while I make a good living and have done things *I* like to do, I've also coasted somewhat on my natural talents that I did little to "deserve" mainly the product of genetics and how I was raised

Guest

12:41

Is there a player in MLB history with a shorter name than Matt McLain that gets misspelled more frequently? THERE IS ONLY ONE C!

Dan Szymborski

12:41

You see a lot of weird spelling of McGwire and "Ripkin" pops up a lot

and I bet most people can't spell Yastrzemski consistently

The Gyorko Store Called

12:42

Do not google oopsy steamer

Jonathan

12:42

Are there vendors that sell positional data for minor league players? I know Statcast freely releases the HawkEye data for all AAA leagues and one other league, but I had this vague thought that the old TrackMan data for all minor league players was still potentially accessible.

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I don't really know the status of that

I have my own sources for things

BC26

12:43

What do you think ZiPS is seeing in Taylor Trammell to project a 106 OPS+

Dan Szymborski

12:43

ZIPS has him easily coming off his best minor league season. I'm guessing OOPSY feels simialrly

charles capisce

12:43

what would the computer give bregman right now? his zips today didnt look great

Dan Szymborski

12:45

ZiPS would only give him 5/100. He's not young and come way off his peak offensively

I imagine that disconnect is one of the reasons that he isn't signed yet

12:46

I know for a fact a lot of team uses ZiPS, at least in tandem with their internals, and there's a great deal of correlation betwene the two

Kappy III

12:46

What is the definition of a "breakout player?" MLB Network claimed Shohei, Elly, and other similar talents would be "breakout players" in 2025? Am I missing something? Please educate me.

Dan Szymborski

12:46

It's kind of a foggy thing

Tha'ts not strictly defined

I think of a breakout as something which fundamentally changes how you think about a player

I think Shohei and Elly being breakout candidates is 2025 is absurd

TooDamnTall

12:47

No, really. How are you?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

TooDamnFat?

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:47

Hey Dan! If Sasaki places in ROY/Cy, do the dodgers get that comp pick for him (assuming he's up to begin the year)?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

It depends if he has PPI eligibility. It depends how ESPN/BA/Pipeline treat him as a prospect

Alby

12:48

The other reason Bregman hasn't signed yet is spelled B-O-R-A-S.

Scotty

12:48

ZIPs has Isaac Paredes and Kyle Tucker as essentially equal in 2024. Projected wars of 3.5 and 3.7, respectively. Does that pass the sniff test for you, personally? I think most people who have Tucker as way over Paredes. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

ZiPS thinks Paredes is especially valuable in Houston

ZiPS doesn't just use handedness park effects, but estimates pull/spray park effects

12:50

Like if the Polo Grounds still existed, ZiPS would REALLY penalize spray power hitters

Farhandrew Zaidman

12:50

In retrospect, did the Orioles misjudge Santander's market? Wouldn't they have preferred Santander for 5/92 over O'neill for 3/49?

Dan Szymborski

12:50

not necessarily

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