JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/28/21

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Dan Szymborski

12:11

Projection systems would differ but signing Realmuto *and* Springer would have still left them third in ZiPS

12:12

The Phillies need a lot more than they think; they're not really on the edge of awesomeness.

Jefferson

12:12

Also, thank you for the chats. Yours are by far my favorite each week

Dan Szymborski

12:12

I BET IMA GONNA FIND YOU TELLING EVERYONE THIS, LIKE CAVE DAMERON

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:13

If you have a stew of meat, peppers and beans with the appropriate seasonings, but remove the beans, is it now chili? Or has the fibrous occupation of said legumes rendered the entire pot inedible?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I'm not sure, I've never really thought about how much the beans would affect it just cooked in

I'm not sure if food is necessarily an endstate thing or not.

12:14

Like a ham sandwich is probably still a ham sandwich even if you had a hot dog sit on the sandwich, temporarily making it a non-sandwich, while you were getting ham out of the fridge

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:14

Is there a brand of canned chili you find acceptable? Are you more of a Hormel or Wolfgang Puck type? Personally, I prefer my Hormel at room temperature, eaten straight from the can.

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Eww

Doug

12:14

Do you think Griffin Canning could potentially get Sonny Gray from the Reds?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

Not alone, but I could see him being part of a package

Inaccessible Rail

12:14

With the Mets shedding Matz payroll, can I now add Bauer to the 40-man roster?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

He'll have to get funding approval from Thicc Dads Club and the rest of Reddit!

Guest

12:15

Is the realmuto signing reflected on the Phillies 2021 projections? What do you think they should do about LF after this year once McCutchen's contract expires?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Yup, the projections contain Realmuto

12:16

As for next year, let's see who is actually a free agent after next year!

One of the better scenarios would be Bohm hitting so well you can justify him in left and the Phillies signing an opted-out Arenado

Guest

12:17

Yankees have all their eggs in the A-team basket; Sale and/or Rodriguez coming back strong would really boost the Red Sox. By the end of the year, do you think the top 4 in that division will be separated by 4 or 5 games, or by 10 or 15 games?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

4 or 5. The Yankees do have some downside

Jefferson

12:17

How does Zips like amed Rosario in CF?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Dunno, but I can run it next time it's open

Rodney

12:17

ZiPS seems to believe in the 2019 breakout we saw from Marcus Semien. Even his 10th percentile outcome would be playable for the Jays. What outcome do you think is most likely for him this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I'm a bit more pessimistic than ZiPS, but it's mainly on gut

Rob

12:17

How much you losing on gamestonk today?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I'm entertained by the stonk market here, but I stay out of things this volatile.

12:19

20 years ago, I would have been all over this kind of thing

12:21

But I have zero stomach for it these days

at some point, you knew the volatility was going to go down and Ida started pondering a straddle, but this is way more fun as an observer

Appa Yip Yip

12:21

An underrated aspect of the Springer and Semien signings is that the Jays are now an exceptionally attractive team. Just a whole lot of good looking dudes having fun, playing ball in a particularly flattering shade of blue.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Based on my girlfriend's reaction to players, I do not understand very well which players are attractive

Or it could just be she has very poor taste

Eddie Waitkus

12:22

Does ZiPS take into account offseason physical improvements? I understand the data may be spotty in terms of correlating body changes with performance; however, it's difficult to look at Vladito and not think that he's going to improve.

Dan Szymborski

12:22

ZiPS works where there's objective data

Big Joey

12:22

What's more likely? Wander Franco has multiple seasons batting over .350 or never has a wRC+ over 130?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

The latter

Ichiro hit .350 four times, but .352 was his second best and it was a league that hit .270

12:25

and he can still be a STAR without over going over 130

Tim Tebow's Thunder Thighs

12:25

Of the remaining free agents, who do you see as most likely to take a 1 year pillow deal? Would Ozuna do it again with another team, unwittingly becoming the mercenary Bauer touted himself as just a couple years ago?

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