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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

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Thank you for the chat!

12:30

Should SF or Orioles try to offer Framber the deal Snell signed with SF?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I know you're not the real Sig! He has my email

I think the O's should

Andy Friedman

12:31

are contract deferrals unfair or bad for baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I think they're neutral

SJF

12:31

I noticed Zips isn't ready to buy Colson Montgomery on opening day. How many strong games in 2026 will it take to peel off those awful 2025 AAA numbers?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

I'm not sure that's a real linear thing I can identify

Scioscia

12:31

How, if at all, do newly hired managers and pitching/hitter coaches effect projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:31

probably some, but an unknown some that is out of the purview of projections. and really, any analyst since people are really complex

mmddyyyy

12:32

Any vegan players?

Dan Szymborski

12:32

Sabathia went vegan at some point, don't know if it stuck. Betts was for awhile, but I think that didn't stick

12:33

Outside of Pat Neshek, nobody else I really think of

Prince Fielder had at least a period he was a vegetarian, but don't know if he went full vegan

I COULD probably swing vegetarian if I have to. But I really like eggs and dairy

Reds Outfield

12:34

Seems like there's a load-bearing JJ Bleday that would make me nervous. Is there any chance Christian Encarnacion-Strand battles his way back on the team, Stewart covers 1B, and Steer moves back into an OF corner?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

It's POSSIBLE

I think the Reds are largely playing it by ear

Naylor Sailor

12:34

Could the Mariners get up to a 90 win projection if they bring back Geno Suarez or finally reel in Brendan Donovan?

Dan Szymborski

12:34

that's a possibility

bringbackpologrounds

12:35

Who does ZiPs forecast to finish with the most career HR among active players? It's stunning to see that Ohtani is projected for about 420 in 3 years, it might well be him.

Dan Szymborski

12:35

Soto

12:37

Soto, Ohtani, Judge, Stanton, Schwarber, Trout, Raleigh, Harper, Vladito, Machado, J-Rod, Freeman, Chourio, Kurtz, Alonso, Wood, Acuna, Henderson, Suarez, Goldschmidt, Olson

Ryan Clifford is not far off from there. Though only 20-some WAR

Karl Hungus

12:37

Who does ZiPS like in the Super Bowl?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

buffalo wings

Theo

12:37

What do you think would the single most impactful yet realistic transaction to still happen before Opening Day? Framber to Mets/O's/Cubs? Skubal to Yanks?

Dan Szymborski

12:37

rpobably the framber signing

12:38

If Skubal's traded, I think it happens in July because something bad happened to teh Tigers

Cromulent

12:38

We often hear that a player is a change of scenery candidate. When that happens is there an adjustment to be made to the projection? Does the data show any real, meaningful effect?

Dan Szymborski

12:38

No, it's something a projection system isn't going to do well

Hammers are useful, but they're bad at repairing a chipped mug

Aliens

12:38

If there’s life on other planets, do you think they play sports like baseball?

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I mean, hitting a round object with a cylinder isn't that weird a cocnept. But it may not be that close to baseball

Baseball buzzwords

12:39

Has modern pitching dev messed up the accuracy of projections at all? Or would a lot of that stuff (pitch/arm angle changes) be baked into the margin of error

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I haven't gotten less accurate, so I 'd say no

modern ptiching dev has also come with much richer data!

Karl Hungus

12:39

What's the highest preseason win projection you've seen?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I THINK it was 2021 dodgers who I think hit 100 (but I may be wrong memory wise)

I'm pretty sure it was 2021 dodgers, not sure if it was 99, 100, or 101

it was AROUND there