JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

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Tate

12:40

Is there a chance the Royals make a move for Luis Arraez? And if they do, are they a legit world series contender

Dan Szymborski

12:40

I think one of the worst places for Arraez is KC

12:41

He's not an upgrade on Pasquatch

and if he's DHing in KC, then that means that Perez is playing more catcher, which means Jensen is playing less catcher

And with D included, I don't think he's actually better than India at 2B

12:42

Weirdly, Arraez SHOULD be pretty useful in SD

Because if you start Arraez at first, you're playing Cronenworth at 2B instead of fucking around with him at first

and then Song can be a super utility type

12:43

I don't THINK Song's played much outfield, but I'd give him some time out there in sht epsring

Jenny

12:43

Why did the Reds give Schwarber a mostly fair offer but now throw their hands up? Are they satisfied with their 83 wins? I guess ZiPS is pretty pessimistic on them anyway, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:43

The Reds don't mind winning, but they really don't want to spend money if they can avoid it

I think they REALLY liked schwarber

12:44

and aren't going to spend money unless they CAPITALI LIKE players

Eric S

12:44

What is the difference between ZIPS and ZIPS DC? For example, Jackson Chourio is projected with a 3.2 WAR by ZIPS but a 2.4 WAR by ZIPS DC in 21 more PAs.

Dan Szymborski

12:44

There's something some weirdness in there with the PA

12:45

I'm not sure what's going on with that though

usually it scales pretty neatly

I don't calculate it myself at all

Tork

12:46

Why do you think ZIPS likes Torkelson so much more than the other projection systems?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

It's really hard to say simply because I can't dig into the other projection systems

I don't think ti's a CRAZY outlier or anything

it's basically a couple extra hits and a couple extra homers

Krusty

12:46

Very much a *_not_* ZiPS question, but one of my favorite genres of Hall of Famer are the compilers who, by their early 30s, are in a "hey, if they could just have an endless summer into their mid/late 30s without declining, they'd actually be an interesting HOF case" guys. Who do you see in the game right now who could fit that profile? Not superstars, just... very good dudes who could compile their way in by aging (very) gracefully?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

I think Muncy is kind of already doing that. He just isn't really declining at the rate you'd expect

I could see Friedl lasting a really long time

12:49

He's an above average contact hitter, is really selective, is a competent center fielder without actually being fast

12:50

He could be at 20-25 WAR without anybody noticing

ML

12:51

Do we have any data on how long pitchers coming over from the KBO are able to maintain their effectiveness? My guess is that whatever gains they made won't fool MLB hitters for very long.

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Unfortunately, nto enough data on their long term performances in MLB to draw a conclusion

Adam

12:51

What would a true-talent 162-0 team's World Series odds be?

Dan Szymborski

12:51

Well, if they're true talent invincible...

12:52

But that team can't exist or even come close to it

It would have to be a Ty Cobb suspension walkout game situation

Cromulent

12:53

In the Brewers writeup you said maybe Zips didn’t give enough juice to Andrew Vaughn for escaping the White Sox. Is there a formulaic adjustment for change of scenery cases, or is it something you do manually or just mentally? I want to guess that it’s a real but marginal effect, and basically impossible to quantify.

Dan Szymborski

12:53

I think it's really hard to quantify

it's somewhat intangible. which means we can't really measure the magnitude or even the DIRECTION

Greg

12:54

Any teams you would expect the eventual Fangraphs playoff odds to disagree with this most recent ZiPS standings the most?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

maybe Cardinals, maybe Guardians

Guest

12:54

Today's so called journalists have no ethics, at least 95% of them. All political unfortunately

Dan Szymborski

12:55

I don't want to make a blanket accusation like that

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