JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

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Guest

1:24

oh wow dan just admitted skyline is chili!

Dan Szymborski

1:24

oh no

I mean it is chili, just awful chili

Wes

1:24

I love the minimalist ballpark graphics that you use for the ZiPS projections. Do you know the Eephus League person who made them? It would be so cool to get them all on a poster or something

Dan Szymborski

1:24

The basic outlines were obtained by carson years ago

technically I do a lot to them - the color schemes and the like

and I've made changes to ones I've needed to

Kevin

1:24

You’ve made occasional comments suggesting you have contact with some in the Rockies’ R&D department. If so, what have you heard about how they feel about the team’s recent changes?

Dan Szymborski

1:25

I talk to most teams!

There are very few teams I don't talk to

Adenolith

1:25

You typed head line and complained about proper English...

Adam

1:26

What have been the top five World Series in your lifetime?

Dan Szymborski

1:26

1986, 1991, 2025, 2011, 2016

Jeremy

1:27

When it's this cold out do you do a full ZiPS run to warm your house up?

Dan Szymborski

1:27

Not intentionally

1:28

But it worekd out this way in that I was doing a run over the weekend when it was snowing

1:29

I keep my thermostat set to 68 in the winter, but my basement office was up around 70-72 over the weekend while the laundry room on the same floor was at 65

Having a 8700K and a 5900X running at 100% for 24 and 18 hours respectively generates a lot of heat!

especially since both are overlcocked

Mike

1:29

Wait, let's go back to the 5 tvs....what are you watching with 5 tvs?

Dan Szymborski

1:29

A lot of times nothing

the person who asks the lunch question

1:29

Is it a lunch day? If so, what's for lunch?

Dan Szymborski

1:30

It is not a lunch day

Key Flaw

1:30

Which regional food (NOT Maryland, though) do you like despite it being objectively weird? Rochester Garbage Plate isn't so bad....

Dan Szymborski

1:30

fried spam? is that weird?

maybe fried pickles if that's not weird enough

or frito pie

1:31

I'm not sure there are a lot of weird regional things I don't like

Guest

1:31

you've mentioned you have ZiPS stored away in a secret location before. I'm not going to try to find it, BUT are there clues / breadcrumbs that would hint as to its location? Like under a rock shaped like home plate? Or its coordinates are your birthday or something? Or is it completely random?

Dan Szymborski

1:31

In my will

1:32

I'm still trying to decide if I want to do a treasure hunt

if I die before putting together a succession plan, my executor has instructions to do a treasure hunt

though I'm not sure how serious Alan woudl take me since he's known me forever

Adenolith

1:33

Percentage of players who debuted in each decade to reach the HOF among those who reached at least 5k PAs or 2K IP -

Pre 1900: 22%
00-09: 20%
10-19: 23%
20-29: 36%
30-29: 20%
40-49: 25%
50-59: 22%
60-69:16%
70-79: 11%
80-89: 11%
90-99: 9%

Looks like it USED to be the Hall of Very Good and we've been making it tougher to get in for the last 50 years.

Sandwich

1:33

You run a million sims of the season where each team varies in its own quality, right?. But wouldn't the 50th percentile projections be taking a 50th percentile outcome for each team and running sims of that?

Dan Szymborski

1:33

No

ZiPS FIRST simulates a million versions of the roster itself, which is not the median outcome

1:34

so sometimes a bunch of players will have their 10th percentile seasons or their 90th or something

The underlying ability of a team in the million sims is already a distribution, not a point

Guest

1:34

These stupid journalismmen now a days cant even right proper

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