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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/29/26

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Dan Szymborski

1:12

Maybe a little, but I think people generally understand. The people who get mad are the people who just don't like comptuer proejctions, on principle

Wood

1:13

Is Ryan Clifford really projected for around 350 HRs and 20 WAR?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

ntot hat high

274, 17.8 WAR, 115 OPS+. I didn't mean he was right behind Olson

Adam

1:13

Will Smith HOF?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

I think ti's a real possibility

Guest

1:13

A lot has been made of Louis Robert moving to the Mets and potentially performing better with a better lineup around him. Is there any way to actually quantify this in a system like ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski

1:13

I haven't actually found this kind of thing to have predictive value

Today’s writers

1:13

May I add that today’s writers/journalists and head line writers do not know proper English.

Guest

1:14

Danny it's cold outside
My projections are done...
Danny it's cold outside
ZiPs has been fun...

if a presidential candidate announced they were a Geoist, what's the likelihood they'd get your vote? Is it more of a "this seems good" thing, or would you take a lot of other things into consideration?

Dan Szymborski

1:14

It's hard to say since there are a lot of other considerations

For example, I'm also an incrementalist.

1:15

I see political ideology as a goal, nto something you can just implement suddenly in a rapid change.

Guest

1:16

2 radio stations want to book you for an interview at the same time. You haven't heard either of them before. Do you choose the market with the better ZiPS projection, because it's easier to talk about good teams?

Dan Szymborski

1:16

Whoever asks me first

I'm not in THAT Much demand

but I will NEVER ask someone I previously agreed to a time with for a change of time for soemone who asked me afterwards

1:17

so if I have a 3 PM podcast scheduled with a small podcaster, and a big market radio station wants to do a hit with me at 3 PM and asks me later, well, I can't do the second one on that occasion, but I can do it another time

1:18

and I've never had any real pushback. there's rarely a radio emergency that requires Dan Szymborski on THAT specific day

let's be honest, there's no emergency of any kind that requires Dan Szymborski

unless my clutzy mom falls (since I'm across the street and my sister lives 40 mins away)

Guest

1:19

if you were a time traveler back to say, 1700 do you think you could get baseball to take off, if that was your only mission?

Dan Szymborski

1:19

I doubt it. You still have to have INFLUENCE

Honestly, if you stick me in a time machine, my natural inclination would be to use knowledge to make money

1:20

just call me Berlinghoff Rasmussen

RickG

1:20

The White Sox just DFA'd Bryan Ramos. If the ZiPS machine was capable of human emotion, would it be shedding tears?

Dan Szymborski

1:20

ZiPS already had a breakup with Ramos last year

Adam

1:20

Love the Szymchats. Long philosophical tangents, and just as likely that the next question is like, "What would Great American Ballpark look like if the Ohio River was suddenly made of Skyline chili?"

Dan Szymborski

1:20

A place I'd never go again!

And probably a lot of flies once that chili turns

Guest

1:21

I understand the whole "regressing to the mean" concept, but can you explain in words that will break into my monkey brain why there could be 5 93+ win teams last year, and yet Zips thinks only the dodgers will eclipse 91 wins in an average projection?

Dan Szymborski

1:21

sure, these are all 50th percentile projections

but you expect three teams to be 90th to 100th

three teams to be 80th to 90th

three teams to be 70th to 80th

1:22

and division winners consist of far more teams taht BEAT expectations than teams that fell short of expectations

Guest

1:22

do you pretty much agree to any podcast requests, or does it have to be of a certain size?

Dan Szymborski