JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/4/24

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/4/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:10

Depends the exact question. Someone reverse-engineered the concept of Mahalanobis distance that I use in assembling a big ol' cohort

https://brandon.nguyen.vc/2021/06/finding-player-comps-with-mahalnobis...

BOB

12:10

HI DAN, THANKS FOR THE CHAT. YOUR RECENT POST OF THE DBACKS ZIPS MENTIONED PFAADAT AND HIS ZIPS RATING WAS BOOSTED BY HIS STELLAR PLAYOFF RUN. JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE, DO PLAYOFF STATS COUNT TOWARDS A PLAYERS ZIPS STATS/RATINGS? THANKS

Dan Szymborski

12:10

Yes

I mean YES

trophy

2

JoJo

12:11

How much of a root impact doe The Martian make in 2024?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

Wait, what?

laughing

1

Ben

12:11

Hey Dan, how much does ZiPS like/dislike Grissom? He seems like the type of player ZiPS would really like but I haven't found much written about him.

Dan Szymborski

12:11

It likes him fine...ish?

Sir Nerdlington

12:11

Are we really just rooting for variance when we go into spring every season?

Dan Szymborski

12:11

In a manner of speaking, yes

Brett Phillips

12:11

ZiPS is kinder to me than Steamer. I am going to solve the White Sox RF issues, right? /s

Dan Szymborski

12:12

The White Sox have so many issues that it's basically immaterial

TW

12:12

Which AL east team is most likely to flop this year?

Dan Szymborski

12:12

In terms of *downside* I think the Yankees have the most, simply because so much of their value is tied up in like three dudes.

But the Red Sox are probably the *weakest* overall team.

12:13

And the Rays certainly lose a good chunk now that it seems far less likely that Franco plays in 2024 (or maybe ever)

Sean

12:13

Is there one move that the M's could make that would put them right in the mix with the Astros and Rangers?

Dan Szymborski

12:13

I don't think so -- there just isn't a Juan Soto out there

12:14

unless I'm allowed to do crazy stuff like an implausible trade

Yogi

12:14

Favorite breakout catchers for 24? Bo Naylor? O'Hoppe? Yainer?

Dan Szymborski

12:14

O'Hoppe has to be up there. I haven't thought of my breakouts piece yet

Long Range HOF

12:15

Happy New Year Dan! Which players majors or minors age 25 season or less last year, excluding Soto or Acuna, does ZIPS project as coming closest to the HOF?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Easy one: Julio

Sir Colton Keithburg

12:15

It's September 2024 and a team (not a preseason favorite) has come out of nowhere to clinch their division handily. Who's the team?

Dan Szymborski

12:15

Cleveland?

BOB

12:16

LAST SEASON, THE DBACKS DFA' D KRISTEN ROBINSON AND HE CLEARED WAIVERS. ARE YOU SURPRISED NOT ONE TEAM TOOK A GAMBLE AND CLAIMED HIM?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

I was a little surprised, but I'm sure given the optics, they didn't want to commit in the middle of a season

TKDC

12:17

So the Braves basically got Chris Sale for 2/$21m with a $18m club option in exchange for Grissom. Win or big win?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

It's certainly a very reasonable swap given the roster

Scotty H

12:18

What was the 80th percentile HR count for Schwarber?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

47

though JUST HR it's a litlte more but I don't have it front of me

That's the HR *in* his overall 80th percentile season

but if it's just HR and not an 80th percentile season for other stuff, it'd be i nthe 50s

Matt Chapman

12:18

Do the Jays really think they can replace me with an IKF/Cavan Biggio platoon?

Dan Szymborski

12:18

I'm starting to think so

BOB

12:19

THE SF GIANTS ZIPS LEFT OF SZAPUCKI, WAS HE OVERLOOKED OR INTENTIONALLY LEFT OFF?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

Just missed him. He'll be in final set

Victoria

12:19

Re Bieber, Castillo got 5/108 and is a bit better. I wouldn't touch that for SB.

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