JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/4/24

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West Philly Fred

12:19

Happy New Year! Thanks for the chat. With respect to prospects, what is the median career WAR Zips would project for a player with Future Value (FV) of 60 vs 40?

Dan Szymborski

12:19

I don't actually have that available quickly, unfortunately

John

12:19

Are Colby Mayo + Connor Norby fair headliners for Cease?_

Dan Szymborski

12:20

Honestly, I think that's too much

If it's Mayo, then it's MOSTLY Mayo

romorr

12:20

If the Marlins want to trade Luzardo, would you move Sammy Basallo for him if you are Elias? Since I don't think he's going to be moved, who would intrigue you more in Baltimore, Cabrera or Rogers?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I would consider it, but not part of a *package*

Victoria

12:20

Did you and Eric coordinate posts for today?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

We did not, it just happened to work out that way

RickG

12:20

When it comes time to release the White Sox ZiPS projections, will you bother with a write-up, or will you just ask AI to create a mash-up of Southpaw and Sluggerrr and paste it to the top of the page?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

I might just do them all on the back of a napkin, since that's what the White Sox do

Geoff Braine

12:20

Hi Dan! It seems that Austin Wells has been moving up the prospect charts recently. I really liked what I saw last September and he looks like an ideal platoon partner for Trevino. I think his ceiling may be Posada; what do you think his floor is?

Dan Szymborski

12:21

Hey Geoff!

That's a name I always like hearing, I hope things have been going well for you

12:22

I think the floor is quite low because catchers are incredibly complicated as prospects

Some of them just flat out drop off and disappear

even on the verge of making the majors

Chet Manley

12:22

With obviously very little knowledge of the actual talks as well as not fully knowing the constraints Angelos has set on spending, etc., doesn’t it feel a little like Mike Elias and company need to be a little more open to dealing prospects, even if it means they run a little higher risk of “losing” a trade? They’re already pretty much out of room for infielders, Ortiz and Norby aren’t getting any younger… just feels like it’s time to take a big swing, right?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Now, if ORTIZ and Norby fetched Cease, I think the O's already closed that deal

12:23

The problem is that with the O's apparently being unlikely to spend much money on anything or anyone EVER, unless Angelos changes course, they're kind of in the Rays category in that they *need* those prospects if they're going to work out

Because they'll continually have to replace graduating 27 year olds

We may already be at the halfway point for Adley's stint in Baltimore

Lance Biggerstaff

12:24

“Nothing” for lunch? Who are you, Oliver Twist?

Dan Szymborski

12:24

Every other day, yes!

gbs42

12:26

Regarding the Sale trade and extension, does the $17M Boston is paying reduce Atlanta's CBT calculation for this season? I'm wondering if the extension lowers or increases their CBT hit.

Dan Szymborski

12:26

I *think* it does

Nova

12:26

Which O's prospect do you consider yourself highest on as compared to the field/industry: Holliday, Basallo or Mayo?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

Basallo

maybe Norby

Snell

12:26

I feel like I used to think Snell didn't throw a lot of innings, but with all the "big brain" teams going for "well look some of these guys might be healthy in October", he doesn't seem as non-durable.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I mentioned that a bit on twitter last week. Top teams are more willing to just have a bunch of very talented injury risks and juggling them around

12:27

Does FG show a player's exit velocity by count? I'd like to see it for Bellinger.

Dan Szymborski

12:27

I don't believe we do, but you can do that on statcast search

Tacoby Bellsbury

12:27

please tell me "BOB" is short for "BANK ONE BALLPARK"

Chase