JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/4/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:52

Hey, in a kickboxing tourney

and eight-year-olds are jerks

I know I certainly was

Sergio Mitre

12:52

Don't do that time warp either

Dan Szymborski

12:52

Thankfully, he was already in his 40s!

Dan

12:52

Do you have any nieces of nephews that would be willing to kick(box) you on the next holiday for social media?

Dan Szymborski

12:53

my two year old nephew can already beat up my four year old nephew

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1736463210641756519

Insert Witty Name Here

12:54

Best prospect for 2025? Smith, Jones, Rodriguez, Garcia, or Johnson?

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Hey, I'm not spoiling stuff!

tortycraig

12:54

I was flabbergasted by McGreevy's spot in the Cardinals projections til I realized the non-Gray pieces of that rotation just blow much worse than I had in my head

Dan Szymborski

12:54

Yeah, it's not that ZiPS loves McGreevy

12:55

Wait, wasn't there a Crazy Mike McGreevy in an episode of Law and Order?

A lady jumped off a bridge after being threatened by him after a car accident

12:56

but it turned out that the whole thing was staged because the son of John Cullum's character was trying to silence her because he burnt down his father's factory for insurance money

Tim

12:56

What's the closest ZiPS "hit comp 1" so far this year? What's the closest "pit comp 1"?

Dan Szymborski

12:56

There was someone who accidentally got comped to himself because of text mistmatch

12:57

I dont' remember who it was

OK, it was Crazy Mike McDugan

Dan

12:58

If you were currently the 2,000 best 15yo baseball player in the world what country would you want to live to maximize you career baseball earnings?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

I think still the US

Steven

12:58

The ZiPS Acuña projections you published in September pegged him as finishing his career with 112 WAR. That relies on him sustaining excellent (or at least well above average) production well into his 30s. What is it about his skillset that makes ZiPS/you optimistic about his ability to age so well?

Dan Szymborski

12:58

He's so well rounded and he's young enough that this might not be a peak, but his BASELINE or something nearer to it than most people having a season like this

Greg

12:58

I arrived late and haven't had a chance to catch up so I'm sorry if this has already been asked but did you run a projection for Hoskins? I noticed that he wasn't with the Phillies.

Dan Szymborski

12:59

Oh dang, did I forget to do hoskins?

Hang on

Matt

12:59

Is there a world where Montas and the reds end up executing on that 2nd year $20M mutual option and it seems like a good move for both? .

Dan Szymborski

1:00

Yes. He could only pitch a little, but be awesome, and still worth signing to a one-year, $18 million contract and be willing to take one

Greg

1:00

Where's a good fit for Kyle Stowers? He seems about as blocked in Baltimore as a young player can be

Dan Szymborski

1:01

I'm not really sure Stowers is going to hit enough to be anything mroe than a fourth outfielder

and you can always use a fourth outfielder

1:04

Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR 2024 .234 .335 .461 449 65 105 28 1 24 74 63 130 2 117 -2 1.4

(Hoskins

wheelhouse

1:04

as a general rule, do projection systems struggle with guys i'd term as drastic players? guys who have one or two exceptional attributes but also glaring weaknesses

Dan Szymborski

1:04

Not usually. These types of calibration errors are easier to iron out

Quarantino Martinez

1:04

Can someone tell Mike Elias the Orioles are on "mute"?

John Thacker

1:04

After all, in Nix v. Hedden (1893), the Supreme Court correctly noted that for statutory construction a tomato is a vegetable, even if biologically it is a fruit.

Dan Szymborski

1:05

On that note, it's time for me to head out for the week

Thanks for coming all!

Greg

1:05

I saw Crazy Mike McDugan on a field trip once, he was sitting in the saloon at the end of the bar. We sure hoped he wouldn't start no trouble...

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