JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/4/24

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Dan Szymborski

12:42

A sizable one!

Guest

12:42

How fragile is Eury Perez's health?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

He's a pitcher, so he's basically always like a Civil War veteran who just received a gunshot wound and is heading back to the tent to be looked at

JWR

12:42

So we just continue to wait for Boras to continue his game of chicken with the remaining GMs? When do you expect the logjam to end?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

I think we'll see a flurry in mid January

JWR

12:42

Do you have a metric to measure the range of outcomes for a young player and who is a young player with a particularly wide range of outcomes?

Dan Szymborski

12:42

an exact METRIC? no

12:44

Here's how the percentiles did last year

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1730645538163327466

Refugee

12:45

Neither of ZiPS or Steamer thinks that Shane Bieber's falling velo, K-BB%, or injury risk present a real problem in 2024 - what's your personal take on it?

Dan Szymborski

12:45

It's concerning, but he's also adjusted somewhat to these issues

12:46

Please help me understand why fWAR gives 57% credit to pos. players and 43% to pitchers. Why those numbers?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

It's an estimate because some of run prevention is defense

I used to know exactly how it was derived, I think

12:47

But I don't generally agonize over it as it's likely in the neighborhood of an ideal that I would calculate

and it's not generally a big deal since WAR is a relative measure

Scrapper

12:47

Should Tampa be looking to trade Paredes with Caminero presumably ready to play 3b in the not too distant future?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I'm sure they're already thinking about trading everyone

Jason

12:47

What do you think the chances are that Wander Franco plays in the MLB ever again?

Dan Szymborski

12:47

I am not a lawyer and I'm DEFINITELY not a Dominican lawyer

but...15%?

But that's pulling things out of my butt

Giant Gonzales

12:48

If it's one or the other, should Boston try and sign Imanaga, or spend less on extending Pivetta? Or just plan on flipping anyone that will be a FA at the deadline like Jansen/Martin/Pivetta/Giolito if they're pitching well?

Dan Szymborski

12:48

Imanaga

Dan

12:48

Can you write an addendum to the early off-season team writeup. I think rereleasing the one for teams that changed a lot would be a good bang for you buck in Sztmborski time/reader engagement

Dan Szymborski

12:49

I usually don't simply because it'll all be up on the site right after the projectiosn!

I might talk about what's changed when I do the start-of-spring projections

GA Blood

12:49

Colby Mayo + a truck full of Colby Cheese + a truck full of Hellmann's Mayo for Dylan Cease

Dan Szymborski

12:49

GUYS ITS COBY

Short for Cobillius

Sammy So-so

12:49

Bubula, we missed in Chatterville. You like the Bader signing for the Mets?

Dan Szymborski

12:49

Yeah

Jason N

12:50

My son came home from school saying mashed potatoes is a salad and referenced https://cuberule.com/. Dan - you need to forget baseball and start working on fixing the school system.

Dan Szymborski

12:50

We shouldn't use governmental definitions for the purpose of statuatory construction!

Else we have our ketchup veggies

Silent J

12:50

is it realistic to dream about the angels making the playoffs this year or should I just give up on seeing Trout in October

Dan Szymborski

12:51

there's probably a scenario that they snag a wild card spot that isn't absolutely crazy]

I'd still dream about it

but I sure wouldn't BET on it, u nless I got really long odds on it