JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/25

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Dan Szymborski

12:14

At some point, it's better to have one 2025 Toyota Camry than three 2008 Toyota Camrys.

12:16

Harry

12:17

Who's a dark horse MVP candidate that nobody's really high on?

Dan Szymborski

12:17

Kinda hard to have a true dark horse MVP candidate; anyone with a REAL chance people will at least like

12:19

Though I WILL note that of the 20ish teams I've done so far, James Wood ranks 40th among position players in 95th percentile WAR

12:20

If ou want to go a little farther out there, Ezequiel Tovar

Lew Ford, Mustang

12:20

I'm intrigued by the idea of teams like the Twins who are adequate everywhere and have depth but lack a big star. How does this get factored into ZIPS vis a vis variance? Feels like their outcomes will be more evenly distributed but that the highs are less high? Does that sound accurate?

Dan Szymborski

12:20

That kind of thing SHOULD be captured the way I project roster composition

12:21

I talk about it in the previews most years. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-and-hopefully-not-too-cringe-...

Nicole

12:21

What's the worst team you could make a favorite to make the playoffs by only signing current free agents?

Dan Szymborski

12:22

Royals?

John B

12:22

In your zWAR estimates it's common to see AAA pitchers who would generate ~2 War or more if they played a full season. But many of these pitchers don't do well when given the chance. ZWAR doesn't seem to be able to accurately predict which guys will actually break through

Dan Szymborski

12:22

What does a full season mean in 2025? The percentile projections calibrate well - the problem is accuracy far more than bias

Snuffy Stirnweiss

12:23

In the Juan Soto ZiPS projection article on Dec 8, you mentioned that ZiPS moved to using a "stepwise function". Can you expand on why that change was made as well as how that might affect certain projections?

Dan Szymborski

12:23

That's for salaries

ZiPS projects the first win as being worth a lot less than subsequent wins

Though you can make it linear again by drastically changing where replacement level is, as Tango has noted

Jeff in Jersey

12:23

I was heartened by the ZIPS forecast for the Mets, and of course it's still amazing to have Juan Soto on your team. But I just can't feel great about this offseason without adding some established relievers and getting certainty on the infield corners (is Vientos really a sure thing, enough to give him 1st, and are we certain Baty/Mauricio can handle 3rd?). Tell me if I'm a spoiled fan or not.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I don't think you're spoiled, it' snot like the Mets project to win 96 games on average or anything

Snuffy Stirnweiss

12:24

As a follow up, delighted to see that you have brought back the threat to karate chop anyone guilty of adding up WAR totals to produce a projected team WAR/record. I read that sentence from you in an article about a decade ago, glad to see I wasn't the only one who remembered it.

Dan Szymborski

12:24

I've never removed that line because I want to ethically disclose that gratuitous violence is a possibility

War2d2

12:24

Hey Dan, Happy New Year! I’m always reticent to think about signing relievers to anything longer than a 1-year deal. That said, do you think whatever 3-5 year thing Tanner Scott eventually winds up with will be a boondoggle? Or do you think the signer will get more value out of the life of the contract than, say, signing Kenley Jansen for one year this year and replacing him with a similar reliever every year for the next 3-5 years? Define “value” however you want, bulk WAR or $$/WAR, whatever.

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I dunno, I don't think Scott is going to get a CRAZY deal. But maybe I'm wrong

Harry

12:25

The Boston Red Sox made some splashes to their pitching staff, have numerous ROTY candidates, and have a solid lineup (with potentially more to be added). What's Boston's ceiling/floor for 2025 in your eyes (record wise)?

Dan Szymborski

12:25

I think they're a real second tier playoff contender, probably ought to finish better than their .500 treading results

I'd be surprised if they crushed out a 100-win season though

Sonny

12:25

I thought for sure Cincy would be a great landing spot for a post-hype young(ish) hitter to add upside to their lineup. I had Tork or Vaughn in mind as better fits than Lux, but is that acquisition somewhat encouraging or just cheaper than the two corner bats mentioned?

Dan Szymborski

12:26

It's hard to say with ownership. I like Lux, but Santander would be a great fit in Cincy, though they shoudln't be mutually exclusive additions

comish4lif

12:27

When the Dodgers cleared a spot on the 40 man by trading Lux, could they (can they) resolve the Dalton Rushing DFA by pulling him back?

Dan Szymborski

12:27

Wait, what?

I know they DFA'ed Cartaya

12:28

but they traded him to Twins during this chat