JotCast | Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 1/9/25

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BC26

12:30

What Yankees 3B option does ZiPS hate the least?

Dan Szymborski

12:30

I guess I can't just say Bregman?

12:31

Then Cabrera I think

Barry M.

12:31

I think Omar Vizquel should be a hall of famer (ignoring the allegations.) He is a better hitter than Ozzie Smith which is his most comparable player. He has 2800+ career hits and over 10 gold gloves.

Dan Szymborski

12:31

Meh. First, I don't think he's a better hitter than Ozzie Smith

12:33

Second, he wasn't an utterly dominating defensive player after Seattle

Some of those gold gloves were rep

12:35

By old ZR, which we we have from 1987, Ozzie *averaged* +13 runs at short over the last decade of his career

And Sherri Nichols DR work had him at the same

12:36

which makes the very aggressive Total Zone numbers when he was younger not look like a stretch

12:37

While 2877 hits sounds great, he's basically a 2500 hit hitter who stuck around as a bad player for another 300 hits

12:38

And yes, 90 wrC+ vs. 83 and more than 200 more net stolen bases in a career are significant edges

Your Name

12:38

Are the yankees better this year than last year? Or is losing Soto too much to overcome

Dan Szymborski

12:38

Probably not better.

Somebody

12:39

Please give your cats some pets for us. They're good kitties.

Dan Szymborski

12:39

I'm not giving Justinian any pets, he pushed the tin of blood orange shortbread cookies off the counter and several broke

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:40

Has anyone ever had a better ZIPS projection than Soto this off-season?

Dan Szymborski

12:40

Well, long term sure! Though not a bigger contract projection

But I don't project everyone hitting free agency every year

Trout had a better projection at same age

Anon21

12:40

Please validate my frustration at the Braves for being very inactive in acquiring talent so far this offseason. I hate that front offices other than maybe the Dodgers' or Mets' seem to view their goal as building a team that will win 92 games!!

Dan Szymborski

12:40

It's the playoff system. Hate the game

RAH

12:40

What to expect with Marcus Semien? Is he due a rebound in 2025, or does age color 2024 performance more predictive moving forward? I understand that many underlying numbers weren't that different from 2023 to 2024, but his profile also seems like it walks a tight rope. Will he start falling off like Arenado? (To counter that, Semien has been much healthier)

Dan Szymborski

12:41

SOME rebound, but time is a drag

Ben

12:41

Hey Dan, thanks for all you do. What does ZiPS think Justin Verlander has left for 2025? What contract would ZiPS have suggested?

Guest

12:41

What does Tyler O'Neill's sim look like with the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski

12:41

Sorry, I have zips batting open first

12:43

oh my, ZiPS likes O'Neill a lot more than Steamer

I hadn't really looked at him specifically before now

250/333/481, 131 OPS+, 2.6 WAR in like 430 PA

maybe THAT is the best deal of the winter? lol

John B

12:44

Would love to see FG create a baseball trade values like model. This kind of content drives a lot of readership imo

Dan Szymborski

12:44

It's certainly something I've thought of doing.

The thing I've been currently working on, which you may have noticed during the playoffs, is a live pitcher vs. batter projection live tool

Idiotic Failson

12:44

You already published my team's ZIPS. Now I have nothing to look forward to. Why do you hate me?

Dan Szymborski

12:44

Your failings, also.

12:45

But don't feel bad, I'm the loser kid too

12:46

It was my sister for a long time, but she got her graduate degrees and helps terminally ill oncology patients while raising a five-year-old and a three year-old, while *I* get mad at baseball things and do math to sports

Talfred

12:46

Do you expect Arraez's offensive profile to become more well-rounded, or is he forever going to be a one-trick pony?

Dan Szymborski

12:46

I think he is what he is

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